DUBAI DESERT CLASSIC ROUND 1

Things this does not include:
-Rory McIlroy’s upside. Even considering that for 3.5-1 to be a fair price you have to believe he is better than Mickelson, Furyk and Stricker by about .1 standard deviations per round. That is not true.

-Alex Noren’s obligatory 81 tomorrow.

-Edoardo Molinari’s dominance on the European JV tour last year.

-Who knows how to value Matteo Mannasero, the amateur. He’s played well at times, played poorly at other times and doesn’t have the 40 round minimum over two years to be treated in my rankings as better than the average of Euro Tour players with less than 40 rounds. He’s probably somewhat better than that, although it’s impossible to say how much so right now.

Those things considered, I still think there is value elsewhere considering Schwartzel’s play of late, Rory being obscenely overrated, and guys like Jeev, Noren and Paul Casey lurking.

Made some reasonable adjustments to McIlory, Molinari and assumed Mannassero’s level of play in around 20 rounds is an accurate representation of his skill. This is what I came up with:

BREAKING DOWN THE BRACKETS: LARSON

I can promise you I will not have any action on any portion of this group. All of these players are overrated. I’m rooting for Angel to win, though.

The only good news about this group is I finally learned how to format images at sizes that don’t require you to click 7 times.

ODDS:

POINTS:

TO WIN:

THOUGHTS:
I hope Angel wins all his matches in this group 8 & 7.

All done on 10000 simulations from XLSSports.

MONDAY MORNING GOLF

I’m not sure 5dimes has realized yet that Luke Donald is actually ahead by one stroke tomorrow.

Let’s break it down:
-I know there are a ton of guys behind Donald that are legit threat’s, but the list of Golfers that would have a better chance of winning one stroke behind Donald is Tiger Woods. Sure, there are about 10 golfer’s I have better than Donald, but none of them would be favorites over Donald given a one stroke handicap.

-Rory McIlroy will be at least the second best golfer one day. I have no problem saying that. At his age to do what he has done is incredible(Since Tiger, the club is Tiger/Sergio/Rory for achievement by age 21). Rory McIlroy will almost assuredly improve, as well. The problem is this price is ridiculous. Adjusting my numbers, you would have to think Rory is the second best golfer in the world(~-.70) by a decent margin over Stricker/Furyk/Mickelson. Now in 5 years, Rory might be that good, but right now, tomorrow, I can’t see that being the case.

-It’s not like Rory has a great history of closing.

-Anyway you slice it, Luke Donald ranges from better than to equal to Rory McIlroy.

-Luke Donald certainly has upside as well. He is 31, which I currently believe is right before a golfer enters into his prime. In addition, he had injury issues early in the year, which probably effected his play and he remains the always dangerous combination of consistent, but hasn’t won on the Euro Tour in three years.

-DONALD HAS A ONE SHOT LEAD. I can’t overstate the importance of this. If it was even, I’d listen to arguments that Rory should be placed higher than Donald. With a one shot lead that is not true.

-The ODDS:

-For the numbers above, I adjusted Rory’s play to just what he has done in the last year. On the 2 year average, he would be MUCH
lower.

-There is no one chasing that I like, or think is particularly under-rated.

-The only reason to pass Donald is that I already have him at 40-1 to win this tournament.

All that added up, makes something I can’t pass:
Luke Donald +320(2)

Turning Stone:
Using my the match play sim XLSsports provided me I figured out the odds of each outcome for tomorrow’s playoff at Turning Stone:

The odds listed are the % chance of each outcome. There is a .1% chance that it goes more than 8 holes, but I drew the line there as far as wasting my time. I’m setting -110/+110 as the fair line for tomorrow. So is Vegas.

A FIVE HORSE RACE

The BMW EPGA Championship will basically come down to five guys tomorrow after Paul Casey fired another stellar round at Wentworth and extended his lead to three.

It should be interesting though, as Casey is chased by Kjeldsen, Schwartzel, McIlroy and Fisher. I don’t think my 95% chance that one of those players wins is an entirely unreasonable estimate.

It will be interesting to see what Casey opens at. Judging by his odds earlier in the week, I would say Casey to win -200/180.

Noren is even more dead now. This is no longer a good bet in terms of winning the tournament. He does however have a 7% chance to finish in the top-5 by my numbers, so he is not completely dead. His D.J. Trahan impression on number 10 did not help today, but an eagle on 17 was enough to beat Quiros by a stroke and give me the winning day on the golf front.

Back later tonight with any picks(hint: Casey to NOT win) and my PGA Breakdown.