ACCENTURE MATCH PLAY QUARTERFINALS

ACCENTURE MATCH PLAY: ROUND 2 LIVE ODDS

Tomorrow’s matches Projection:

ACCENTURE MATCH PLAY CHAMPIONSHIP SECOND ROUND

I may have some Live Odds running tomorrow in the early afternoon. We’ll see.

ACCENTURE MATCH PLAY ROUND 1 LIVE ODDS

WGC ACCENTURE MATCH PLAY CHAMPIONSHIP FULL ODDS

Plan to try out some live odds during the matches tomorrow.

Player	2nd	3rd	Qtr	Semi	Finals	Win	Odds	Vegas	ROI
Tiger Woods	71.5%	44.5%	28.5%	17.8%	11.2%	7.5%	1240	1300	$1.04
Steve Stricker	65.2%	41.5%	25.4%	14.8%	8.6%	5.3%	1774	3600	$1.97
Jim Furyk	63.7%	39.7%	22.1%	12.4%	6.7%	3.7%	2594	7500	$2.82
Lee Westwood	64.6%	36.5%	20.5%	11.4%	6.3%	3.6%	2668	2300	$0.87
Phil Mickelson	65.2%	37.2%	20.8%	11.6%	6.2%	3.4%	2839	2400	$0.85
Paul Casey	60.0%	35.9%	20.4%	10.7%	6.0%	3.3%	2889	1300	$0.47
Martin Kaymer	64.4%	34.7%	19.9%	11.1%	5.9%	3.2%	2990	1750	$0.60
Matt Kuchar	61.1%	35.1%	19.5%	10.9%	5.9%	3.2%	3041	4000	$1.31
Rory McIlroy	57.3%	32.3%	18.1%	9.7%	4.9%	2.6%	3694	1700	$0.47
Luke Donald	58.9%	33.9%	17.6%	9.1%	4.8%	2.6%	3815	4000	$1.05
Hunter Mahan	53.1%	32.5%	16.9%	9.0%	4.6%	2.4%	4080	3800	$0.93
Graeme McDowell	58.9%	31.4%	17.1%	9.0%	4.5%	2.3%	4219	2300	$0.56
Retief Goosen	55.8%	29.5%	15.2%	8.0%	4.2%	2.2%	4428	5500	$1.24
Ernie Els	54.9%	30.3%	15.9%	8.0%	4.2%	2.2%	4529	4200	$0.93
Nick Watney	55.5%	28.8%	15.1%	7.9%	4.0%	2.1%	4775	2600	$0.55
Dustin Johnson	57.9%	30.6%	14.4%	7.6%	4.0%	2.0%	4812	4000	$0.83
Zach Johnson	52.4%	27.2%	14.8%	7.9%	3.9%	2.0%	4921	12000	$2.41
Francesco Molinari	55.2%	28.6%	14.6%	7.7%	3.9%	2.0%	5017	8500	$1.68
Ian Poulter	52.0%	28.2%	14.5%	7.4%	3.6%	1.8%	5486	3200	$0.59
Y.E. Yang	49.7%	23.0%	10.7%	4.9%	4.0%	1.7%	5649	17000	$2.97
Charl Schwartzel	62.1%	28.6%	14.9%	7.3%	3.5%	1.7%	5836	4500	$0.77
Robert Allenby	52.0%	26.6%	14.0%	7.2%	3.4%	1.6%	6066	8000	$1.31
Jason Day	59.3%	28.5%	14.4%	6.8%	3.3%	1.6%	6070	7500	$1.23
Ben Crane	54.2%	26.3%	13.6%	6.8%	3.3%	1.6%	6130	9500	$1.54
Padraig Harrington	51.9%	23.3%	12.1%	6.2%	3.2%	1.6%	6314	7500	$1.18
Bo Van Pelt	54.2%	26.5%	13.2%	6.7%	3.3%	1.5%	6444	12000	$1.85
Sean O’Hair	46.9%	27.1%	13.1%	6.6%	3.0%	1.4%	6990	11000	$1.57
Justin Rose	47.6%	23.9%	12.3%	6.1%	2.9%	1.3%	7488	5500	$0.74
Stewart Cink	48.0%	25.1%	12.5%	6.1%	2.9%	1.3%	7637	6500	$0.85
Bubba Watson	50.0%	25.1%	11.1%	5.4%	2.7%	1.3%	7750	8000	$1.03
Geoff Ogilvy	48.1%	20.7%	10.5%	5.3%	2.7%	1.2%	7917	2600	$0.34
Ross Fisher	48.0%	23.8%	12.0%	5.9%	2.7%	1.2%	8112	6000	$0.74
Bill Haas	50.0%	25.1%	11.1%	5.5%	2.6%	1.2%	8172	6000	$0.74
Edoardo Molinari	53.8%	25.9%	12.0%	5.6%	2.6%	1.2%	8333	8500	$1.02
Peter Hanson	50.3%	24.3%	11.8%	5.7%	2.6%	1.2%	8389	10000	$1.19
Rickie Fowler	49.7%	24.1%	11.6%	5.6%	2.6%	1.1%	8676	5500	$0.64
Miguel Angel Jimenez	57.4%	26.2%	12.4%	5.8%	2.6%	1.1%	9149	9500	$1.04
Camilo Villegas	50.0%	23.7%	11.3%	5.1%	2.4%	1.1%	9293	10000	$1.08
J.B. Holmes	50.0%	23.5%	11.2%	5.0%	2.4%	1.1%	9381	8500	$0.91
Robert Karlsson	60.8%	27.1%	12.2%	5.6%	2.5%	1.1%	9391	5500	$0.59
Jeff Overton	45.1%	22.5%	10.9%	4.9%	2.3%	1.0%	9441	12000	$1.27
Alvaro Quiros	50.3%	23.7%	11.0%	5.1%	2.3%	1.0%	9635	4400	$0.46
Ryan Moore	44.8%	21.2%	9.7%	4.6%	2.2%	1.0%	10117	7000	$0.69
Jonathan Byrd	42.7%	21.0%	10.1%	4.7%	2.1%	1.0%	10304	16000	$1.55
Anthony Kim	44.5%	20.1%	9.4%	4.3%	2.0%	0.9%	10778	9000	$0.84
K.J. Choi	44.2%	20.8%	9.5%	4.5%	2.1%	0.9%	10856	8000	$0.74
Richard Green	40.0%	19.9%	9.4%	4.1%	1.9%	0.8%	12463	25000	$2.00
Adam Scott	45.8%	20.4%	9.7%	4.4%	1.8%	0.8%	12747	8500	$0.67
Louis Oosthuizen	45.8%	20.4%	9.2%	4.3%	1.8%	0.7%	13416	9500	$0.71
Charley Hoffman	41.1%	19.9%	8.7%	3.7%	1.6%	0.7%	14645	23000	$1.57
Anders Hansen	38.9%	18.0%	8.1%	3.6%	1.5%	0.6%	15779	18000	$1.14
Martin Laird	46.2%	20.3%	8.6%	3.7%	1.6%	0.6%	15976	9000	$0.57
Heath Slocum	41.1%	18.2%	8.3%	3.6%	1.5%	0.6%	17234	32000	$1.85
Mark Wilson	42.1%	19.1%	7.6%	3.3%	1.5%	0.6%	17605	15000	$0.85
Matteo Manassero	34.8%	16.8%	7.5%	3.1%	1.3%	0.5%	19266	17500	$0.91
Ryan Palmer	36.3%	17.7%	7.5%	3.2%	1.3%	0.5%	21577	12000	$0.56
Henrik Stenson	35.4%	14.6%	6.0%	2.5%	1.0%	0.4%	24991	15000	$0.60
Brendan Jones	34.8%	14.4%	5.8%	2.4%	0.9%	0.3%	31005	40000	$1.29
Yuta Ikeda	42.6%	16.4%	6.5%	2.5%	1.0%	0.3%	31220	33000	$1.06
Kyung-Tae Kim	40.7%	15.7%	6.5%	2.4%	0.9%	0.3%	31547	32000	$1.01
Seung-Yul Noh	35.6%	14.1%	6.0%	2.4%	0.9%	0.3%	33049	16000	$0.49
Thomas Bjorn	28.5%	11.5%	4.8%	2.0%	0.8%	0.3%	34567	22000	$0.64
Ryo Ishikawa	37.9%	13.1%	5.3%	1.9%	0.7%	0.2%	48213	21000	$0.44
Hiroyuki Fujita	39.2%	13.4%	4.7%	1.7%	0.6%	0.2%	58879	61000	$1.04

ACCENTURE WGC MATCH PLAY: WOODS BRACKET

ROAD TO THE FINAL FOUR:

Tiger Woods: Just by averaging all the players in all brackets, this one comes out as the toughest, though part of that could be because of Tiger Woods in the one-slot. For Tiger, on a 2 through 16 basis, this group is about equal to Westwood’s bracket. In the first round, Tiger faces Thomas Bjorn which is a nice draw that Woods is rightfully a big favorite in. Other than that, only Kyung-Tae Kim as the seventh seed is noticeably easier than average in this group. Woods gets no favors after that, however, with a match-up with a major champion and very good player in the second round. Two through four this bracket is about average, which means it is strong.

Paul Casey: Hard to imagine drawing a worse draw for Casey who has Tiger who is the best one, a strong 15 in the first round. Tenth-seeded Jason Day should have no problem with Kim and would be extremely tough as a 10. J.B. Holmes pulling out is nice for Casey in a way, but Johnson, Overton and Wilson are all harder than could be expected for their seed to get to the round of eight. Casey is no doubt the best player on the bottom half of this bracket, but it’s still a tougher draw than some.

Ernie Els: Els draws a tough Overton in round one. Villegas is a strong 11 and Holmes is a weak six, but Either way Ernie is better that both. Casey is about what should be expected as a No. 2.

Dustin Johnson: Johnson sits in the middle of an overall strong group of four American players. That’s hard for him, then, of course he has Tiger Woods waiting.

(Yes, I realize Tim Clark is still in here, I will have full odds up later)

MATCHUPS TO WATCH:

Padraig Harrington (+135) vs. Geoff Ogilvy (-145): This is based on Ogilvy’s history and crazy Padraig’s swing changes.

Richard Green (+218) vs. Paul Casey (-238): I think Casey’s history is overrated here and Green is a solid, but unknown player.

FAVORITE: Tiger

SLEEPER: Jason Day.

BRACKET:

Full odds and Brackets will be up shortly.

ACCENTURE WGC MATCH PLAY: KAYMER BRACKET

ROAD TO THE FINAL FOUR:

Martin Kaymer: Kaymer gets a relatively average draw for a one seed and the easiest bracket by my rankings. Seung Yul-Noh is not great for a 16 in this tournament, so Kaymer will have a relatively good chance of advancing. Rose and Johnson are both solid (ZJ is better) but nothing out of the norms for 8s and 9s. The 8s actually have a better ranking than any other seed outside the top four so look for some No. 1s to drop early (I wonder if this has been the case in years past too.) The nines are almost as strong and the sixth best seed by average rank, so while Kaymer’s potential matches are hard, they aren’t out of the ordinary. Robert Karlsson is actually by far the worst No. 4 this week, so it’s more likely that Mahan will advance to the round of 16, should Kaymer get there and he will be as tough as a four seed should be. On the bottom, Jim Furyk is the best player in this bracket and has a great draw.

Rory McIlroy: McIlroy would be better off matched up against the 12, 13 or 14 seed in this bracket in the first round. Instead, he gets Jonathan Byrd a solid PGA Tour proven player that can probably give him a match then choke it away at the end like Kevin Na did last year. Adam Scott and Ben Crane are both pretty good, though Scott’s ranking is lower because of 2009. Both of those players can challenge McIlroy. After that, Furyk and Kaymer looming balance each other out, as Furyk is a strong 2 and Kaymer is a weak 1. Still, both of those players should be favored over McIlroy.

Jim Furyk: No doubt, Furyk is underrated by the OWGR’s, but he makes up for it with the draw he got. This is by far the easiest pod for all similar seeds. Ryan Palmer has won a few times on the PGA Tour, but remains stunningly average. After that it’s a matchup with Yuta Ikeda or Miguel Angel Jimenez. MAJ is still dangerous, but not near the top of his game anymore. Ikeda has taken advantage of the Japanese racket, and has a few good rounds in PGA Tour events, but for the most part remains an average player from what I can see. If Furyk gets out of the pod, McIlroy and Kaymer are as easy ones and twos as he can hope for. This is a great draw for Furyk to make a run if he has a good week.

Robert Karlsson: Karlsson is by far the worst No. 4, but lucks out by getting Hiroyuki Fujita in the first round. Sean O’Hair and Hunter Mahan will have an intriguing match on the other side of the pod to see who is favored over the winner of the Karlsson/Fujita match. Expect one of the Americans to advance out of here to potentially face Kaymer.

MATCHUPS TO WATCH:

Zach Johnson (+115) vs. Justin Rose (-135): It seems that the wrong person is favored here, although both players have had pretty up and down careers so It’s hard to project.

Hiroyuki Fujita (+200) vs. Robert Karlsson (-240): I don’t know much about the Japanese Tour, but Fujita must not be very good.

Sean O’Hair (+145) vs. Hunter Mahan (-165): I’d agree that Mahan is better. I don’t think it is this much better unless you are putting way too much stock into the few rounds that have been played this season.

Jonathan Byrd (+175) vs. Rory McIlroy (-200): This reminds me a lot of Kevin Na vs. McIlroy last year with the added benefit that he has a proven record of actually winning, whatever that is worth.

Jim Furyk (-140) vs. Ryan Palmer (+120): I can’t see how this is that much different from the matchup above.

FAVORITE: Absolutely Jim Furyk in this bracket. Furyk is arguably the best player and has a great draw.

SLEEPER: I would say either Hunter Mahan or Sean O’Hair. Whoever wins that has a favorable draw of 1,2 and 4, although they would likely be underdogs to Kaymer and McIlroy.

BRACKET: