Monthly Archives: February 2011

ACCENTURE MATCH PLAY QUARTERFINALS

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ACCENTURE MATCH PLAY: ROUND 2 LIVE ODDS

Tomorrow’s matches Projection:

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ACCENTURE MATCH PLAY CHAMPIONSHIP SECOND ROUND

I may have some Live Odds running tomorrow in the early afternoon. We’ll see.

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ACCENTURE MATCH PLAY ROUND 1 LIVE ODDS

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WGC ACCENTURE MATCH PLAY CHAMPIONSHIP FULL ODDS

Plan to try out some live odds during the matches tomorrow.

Player

2nd

3rd

Qtr

Semi

Finals

Win

Odds

Vegas

ROI

Tiger Woods

71.5%

44.5%

28.5%

17.8%

11.2%

7.5%

1240

1300

$1.04

Steve Stricker

65.2%

41.5%

25.4%

14.8%

8.6%

5.3%

1774

3600

$1.97

Jim Furyk

63.7%

39.7%

22.1%

12.4%

6.7%

3.7%

2594

7500

$2.82

Lee Westwood

64.6%

36.5%

20.5%

11.4%

6.3%

3.6%

2668

2300

$0.87

Phil Mickelson

65.2%

37.2%

20.8%

11.6%

6.2%

3.4%

2839

2400

$0.85

Paul Casey

60.0%

35.9%

20.4%

10.7%

6.0%

3.3%

2889

1300

$0.47

Martin Kaymer

64.4%

34.7%

19.9%

11.1%

5.9%

3.2%

2990

1750

$0.60

Matt Kuchar

61.1%

35.1%

19.5%

10.9%

5.9%

3.2%

3041

4000

$1.31

Rory McIlroy

57.3%

32.3%

18.1%

9.7%

4.9%

2.6%

3694

1700

$0.47

Luke Donald

58.9%

33.9%

17.6%

9.1%

4.8%

2.6%

3815

4000

$1.05

Hunter Mahan

53.1%

32.5%

16.9%

9.0%

4.6%

2.4%

4080

3800

$0.93

Graeme McDowell

58.9%

31.4%

17.1%

9.0%

4.5%

2.3%

4219

2300

$0.56

Retief Goosen

55.8%

29.5%

15.2%

8.0%

4.2%

2.2%

4428

5500

$1.24

Ernie Els

54.9%

30.3%

15.9%

8.0%

4.2%

2.2%

4529

4200

$0.93

Nick Watney

55.5%

28.8%

15.1%

7.9%

4.0%

2.1%

4775

2600

$0.55

Dustin Johnson

57.9%

30.6%

14.4%

7.6%

4.0%

2.0%

4812

4000

$0.83

Zach Johnson

52.4%

27.2%

14.8%

7.9%

3.9%

2.0%

4921

12000

$2.41

Francesco Molinari

55.2%

28.6%

14.6%

7.7%

3.9%

2.0%

5017

8500

$1.68

Ian Poulter

52.0%

28.2%

14.5%

7.4%

3.6%

1.8%

5486

3200

$0.59

Y.E. Yang

49.7%

23.0%

10.7%

4.9%

4.0%

1.7%

5649

17000

$2.97

Charl Schwartzel

62.1%

28.6%

14.9%

7.3%

3.5%

1.7%

5836

4500

$0.77

Robert Allenby

52.0%

26.6%

14.0%

7.2%

3.4%

1.6%

6066

8000

$1.31

Jason Day

59.3%

28.5%

14.4%

6.8%

3.3%

1.6%

6070

7500

$1.23

Ben Crane

54.2%

26.3%

13.6%

6.8%

3.3%

1.6%

6130

9500

$1.54

Padraig Harrington

51.9%

23.3%

12.1%

6.2%

3.2%

1.6%

6314

7500

$1.18

Bo Van Pelt

54.2%

26.5%

13.2%

6.7%

3.3%

1.5%

6444

12000

$1.85

Sean O’Hair

46.9%

27.1%

13.1%

6.6%

3.0%

1.4%

6990

11000

$1.57

Justin Rose

47.6%

23.9%

12.3%

6.1%

2.9%

1.3%

7488

5500

$0.74

Stewart Cink

48.0%

25.1%

12.5%

6.1%

2.9%

1.3%

7637

6500

$0.85

Bubba Watson

50.0%

25.1%

11.1%

5.4%

2.7%

1.3%

7750

8000

$1.03

Geoff Ogilvy

48.1%

20.7%

10.5%

5.3%

2.7%

1.2%

7917

2600

$0.34

Ross Fisher

48.0%

23.8%

12.0%

5.9%

2.7%

1.2%

8112

6000

$0.74

Bill Haas

50.0%

25.1%

11.1%

5.5%

2.6%

1.2%

8172

6000

$0.74

Edoardo Molinari

53.8%

25.9%

12.0%

5.6%

2.6%

1.2%

8333

8500

$1.02

Peter Hanson

50.3%

24.3%

11.8%

5.7%

2.6%

1.2%

8389

10000

$1.19

Rickie Fowler

49.7%

24.1%

11.6%

5.6%

2.6%

1.1%

8676

5500

$0.64

Miguel Angel Jimenez

57.4%

26.2%

12.4%

5.8%

2.6%

1.1%

9149

9500

$1.04

Camilo Villegas

50.0%

23.7%

11.3%

5.1%

2.4%

1.1%

9293

10000

$1.08

J.B. Holmes

50.0%

23.5%

11.2%

5.0%

2.4%

1.1%

9381

8500

$0.91

Robert Karlsson

60.8%

27.1%

12.2%

5.6%

2.5%

1.1%

9391

5500

$0.59

Jeff Overton

45.1%

22.5%

10.9%

4.9%

2.3%

1.0%

9441

12000

$1.27

Alvaro Quiros

50.3%

23.7%

11.0%

5.1%

2.3%

1.0%

9635

4400

$0.46

Ryan Moore

44.8%

21.2%

9.7%

4.6%

2.2%

1.0%

10117

7000

$0.69

Jonathan Byrd

42.7%

21.0%

10.1%

4.7%

2.1%

1.0%

10304

16000

$1.55

Anthony Kim

44.5%

20.1%

9.4%

4.3%

2.0%

0.9%

10778

9000

$0.84

K.J. Choi

44.2%

20.8%

9.5%

4.5%

2.1%

0.9%

10856

8000

$0.74

Richard Green

40.0%

19.9%

9.4%

4.1%

1.9%

0.8%

12463

25000

$2.00

Adam Scott

45.8%

20.4%

9.7%

4.4%

1.8%

0.8%

12747

8500

$0.67

Louis Oosthuizen

45.8%

20.4%

9.2%

4.3%

1.8%

0.7%

13416

9500

$0.71

Charley Hoffman

41.1%

19.9%

8.7%

3.7%

1.6%

0.7%

14645

23000

$1.57

Anders Hansen

38.9%

18.0%

8.1%

3.6%

1.5%

0.6%

15779

18000

$1.14

Martin Laird

46.2%

20.3%

8.6%

3.7%

1.6%

0.6%

15976

9000

$0.57

Heath Slocum

41.1%

18.2%

8.3%

3.6%

1.5%

0.6%

17234

32000

$1.85

Mark Wilson

42.1%

19.1%

7.6%

3.3%

1.5%

0.6%

17605

15000

$0.85

Matteo Manassero

34.8%

16.8%

7.5%

3.1%

1.3%

0.5%

19266

17500

$0.91

Ryan Palmer

36.3%

17.7%

7.5%

3.2%

1.3%

0.5%

21577

12000

$0.56

Henrik Stenson

35.4%

14.6%

6.0%

2.5%

1.0%

0.4%

24991

15000

$0.60

Brendan Jones

34.8%

14.4%

5.8%

2.4%

0.9%

0.3%

31005

40000

$1.29

Yuta Ikeda

42.6%

16.4%

6.5%

2.5%

1.0%

0.3%

31220

33000

$1.06

Kyung-Tae Kim

40.7%

15.7%

6.5%

2.4%

0.9%

0.3%

31547

32000

$1.01

Seung-Yul Noh

35.6%

14.1%

6.0%

2.4%

0.9%

0.3%

33049

16000

$0.49

Thomas Bjorn

28.5%

11.5%

4.8%

2.0%

0.8%

0.3%

34567

22000

$0.64

Ryo Ishikawa

37.9%

13.1%

5.3%

1.9%

0.7%

0.2%

48213

21000

$0.44

Hiroyuki Fujita

39.2%

13.4%

4.7%

1.7%

0.6%

0.2%

58879

61000

$1.04

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ACCENTURE WGC MATCH PLAY: WOODS BRACKET

ROAD TO THE FINAL FOUR:

Tiger Woods: Just by averaging all the players in all brackets, this one comes out as the toughest, though part of that could be because of Tiger Woods in the one-slot. For Tiger, on a 2 through 16 basis, this group is about equal to Westwood’s bracket. In the first round, Tiger faces Thomas Bjorn which is a nice draw that Woods is rightfully a big favorite in. Other than that, only Kyung-Tae Kim as the seventh seed is noticeably easier than average in this group. Woods gets no favors after that, however, with a match-up with a major champion and very good player in the second round. Two through four this bracket is about average, which means it is strong.

Paul Casey: Hard to imagine drawing a worse draw for Casey who has Tiger who is the best one, a strong 15 in the first round. Tenth-seeded Jason Day should have no problem with Kim and would be extremely tough as a 10. J.B. Holmes pulling out is nice for Casey in a way, but Johnson, Overton and Wilson are all harder than could be expected for their seed to get to the round of eight. Casey is no doubt the best player on the bottom half of this bracket, but it’s still a tougher draw than some.

Ernie Els: Els draws a tough Overton in round one. Villegas is a strong 11 and Holmes is a weak six, but Either way Ernie is better that both. Casey is about what should be expected as a No. 2.

Dustin Johnson: Johnson sits in the middle of an overall strong group of four American players. That’s hard for him, then, of course he has Tiger Woods waiting.

(Yes, I realize Tim Clark is still in here, I will have full odds up later)

MATCHUPS TO WATCH:

Padraig Harrington (+135) vs. Geoff Ogilvy (-145): This is based on Ogilvy’s history and crazy Padraig’s swing changes.

Richard Green (+218) vs. Paul Casey (-238): I think Casey’s history is overrated here and Green is a solid, but unknown player.

FAVORITE: Tiger

SLEEPER: Jason Day.

BRACKET:

Full odds and Brackets will be up shortly.

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ACCENTURE WGC MATCH PLAY: KAYMER BRACKET

ROAD TO THE FINAL FOUR:

Martin Kaymer: Kaymer gets a relatively average draw for a one seed and the easiest bracket by my rankings. Seung Yul-Noh is not great for a 16 in this tournament, so Kaymer will have a relatively good chance of advancing. Rose and Johnson are both solid (ZJ is better) but nothing out of the norms for 8s and 9s. The 8s actually have a better ranking than any other seed outside the top four so look for some No. 1s to drop early (I wonder if this has been the case in years past too.) The nines are almost as strong and the sixth best seed by average rank, so while Kaymer’s potential matches are hard, they aren’t out of the ordinary. Robert Karlsson is actually by far the worst No. 4 this week, so it’s more likely that Mahan will advance to the round of 16, should Kaymer get there and he will be as tough as a four seed should be. On the bottom, Jim Furyk is the best player in this bracket and has a great draw.

Rory McIlroy: McIlroy would be better off matched up against the 12, 13 or 14 seed in this bracket in the first round. Instead, he gets Jonathan Byrd a solid PGA Tour proven player that can probably give him a match then choke it away at the end like Kevin Na did last year. Adam Scott and Ben Crane are both pretty good, though Scott’s ranking is lower because of 2009. Both of those players can challenge McIlroy. After that, Furyk and Kaymer looming balance each other out, as Furyk is a strong 2 and Kaymer is a weak 1. Still, both of those players should be favored over McIlroy.

Jim Furyk: No doubt, Furyk is underrated by the OWGR’s, but he makes up for it with the draw he got. This is by far the easiest pod for all similar seeds. Ryan Palmer has won a few times on the PGA Tour, but remains stunningly average. After that it’s a matchup with Yuta Ikeda or Miguel Angel Jimenez. MAJ is still dangerous, but not near the top of his game anymore. Ikeda has taken advantage of the Japanese racket, and has a few good rounds in PGA Tour events, but for the most part remains an average player from what I can see. If Furyk gets out of the pod, McIlroy and Kaymer are as easy ones and twos as he can hope for. This is a great draw for Furyk to make a run if he has a good week.

Robert Karlsson: Karlsson is by far the worst No. 4, but lucks out by getting Hiroyuki Fujita in the first round. Sean O’Hair and Hunter Mahan will have an intriguing match on the other side of the pod to see who is favored over the winner of the Karlsson/Fujita match. Expect one of the Americans to advance out of here to potentially face Kaymer.

MATCHUPS TO WATCH:

Zach Johnson (+115) vs. Justin Rose (-135): It seems that the wrong person is favored here, although both players have had pretty up and down careers so It’s hard to project.

Hiroyuki Fujita (+200) vs. Robert Karlsson (-240): I don’t know much about the Japanese Tour, but Fujita must not be very good.

Sean O’Hair (+145) vs. Hunter Mahan (-165): I’d agree that Mahan is better. I don’t think it is this much better unless you are putting way too much stock into the few rounds that have been played this season.

Jonathan Byrd (+175) vs. Rory McIlroy (-200): This reminds me a lot of Kevin Na vs. McIlroy last year with the added benefit that he has a proven record of actually winning, whatever that is worth.

Jim Furyk (-140) vs. Ryan Palmer (+120): I can’t see how this is that much different from the matchup above.

FAVORITE: Absolutely Jim Furyk in this bracket. Furyk is arguably the best player and has a great draw.

SLEEPER: I would say either Hunter Mahan or Sean O’Hair. Whoever wins that has a favorable draw of 1,2 and 4, although they would likely be underdogs to Kaymer and McIlroy.

BRACKET:


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