DUBAI DESERT CLASSIC ROUND 1


Things this does not include:
-Rory McIlroy’s upside. Even considering that for 3.5-1 to be a fair price you have to believe he is better than Mickelson, Furyk and Stricker by about .1 standard deviations per round. That is not true.

-Alex Noren’s obligatory 81 tomorrow.

-Edoardo Molinari’s dominance on the European JV tour last year.

-Who knows how to value Matteo Mannasero, the amateur. He’s played well at times, played poorly at other times and doesn’t have the 40 round minimum over two years to be treated in my rankings as better than the average of Euro Tour players with less than 40 rounds. He’s probably somewhat better than that, although it’s impossible to say how much so right now.

Those things considered, I still think there is value elsewhere considering Schwartzel’s play of late, Rory being obscenely overrated, and guys like Jeev, Noren and Paul Casey lurking.

Made some reasonable adjustments to McIlory, Molinari and assumed Mannassero’s level of play in around 20 rounds is an accurate representation of his skill. This is what I came up with:

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