I’m not sure 5dimes has realized yet that Luke Donald is actually ahead by one stroke tomorrow.
Let’s break it down:
-I know there are a ton of guys behind Donald that are legit threat’s, but the list of Golfers that would have a better chance of winning one stroke behind Donald is Tiger Woods. Sure, there are about 10 golfer’s I have better than Donald, but none of them would be favorites over Donald given a one stroke handicap.
-Rory McIlroy will be at least the second best golfer one day. I have no problem saying that. At his age to do what he has done is incredible(Since Tiger, the club is Tiger/Sergio/Rory for achievement by age 21). Rory McIlroy will almost assuredly improve, as well. The problem is this price is ridiculous. Adjusting my numbers, you would have to think Rory is the second best golfer in the world(~-.70) by a decent margin over Stricker/Furyk/Mickelson. Now in 5 years, Rory might be that good, but right now, tomorrow, I can’t see that being the case.
-It’s not like Rory has a great history of closing.
-Luke Donald certainly has upside as well. He is 31, which I currently believe is right before a golfer enters into his prime. In addition, he had injury issues early in the year, which probably effected his play and he remains the always dangerous combination of consistent, but hasn’t won on the Euro Tour in three years.
-DONALD HAS A ONE SHOT LEAD. I can’t overstate the importance of this. If it was even, I’d listen to arguments that Rory should be placed higher than Donald. With a one shot lead that is not true.
-For the numbers above, I adjusted Rory’s play to just what he has done in the last year. On the 2 year average, he would be MUCH
-There is no one chasing that I like, or think is particularly under-rated.
-The only reason to pass Donald is that I already have him at 40-1 to win this tournament.
All that added up, makes something I can’t pass:
Luke Donald +320(2)
Using my the match play sim XLSsports provided me I figured out the odds of each outcome for tomorrow’s playoff at Turning Stone:
The odds listed are the % chance of each outcome. There is a .1% chance that it goes more than 8 holes, but I drew the line there as far as wasting my time. I’m setting -110/+110 as the fair line for tomorrow. So is Vegas.