Monthly Archives: October 2010

NATIONWIDE TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND 2 ODDS

It’s been a fantastic week so far for Jamie Lovemark. He moved from a coin flip for full exemption to now over seven out of 10.

Hunter Haas has improved his odds of winning the money title the most, but still has to make up $50,000 on Lovemark and that won’t be easy.

PLAYER

Top-25

Money

Win

Delta t-25

Jamie Lovemark

100.00%

$453,569.54

72.26%

0.00%

Hunter Haas

100.00%

$404,078.11

9.71%

0.00%

Tommy Gainey

100.00%

$413,642.20

5.27%

0.00%

Kevin Kisner

100.00%

$313,480.55

4.28%

0.00%

Daniel Summerhays

100.00%

$395,599.09

3.46%

0.00%

Jhonathan Vegas

100.00%

$346,193.49

2.62%

0.00%

Kevin Chappell

100.00%

$341,216.31

1.57%

0.00%

Tag Ridings

100.00%

$280,997.83

0.61%

0.00%

Fabian Gomez

100.00%

$272,807.97

0.11%

0.00%

David Mathis

100.00%

$268,119.15

0.05%

0.00%

Keegan Bradley

100.00%

$267,263.03

0.04%

0.00%

Martin Piller

100.00%

$332,667.50

0.02%

0.00%

Chris Kirk

100.00%

$411,206.00

0.00%

0.00%

Steven Bowditch

100.00%

$257,675.88

0.00%

0.00%

D.J. Brigman

100.00%

$243,166.88

0.00%

0.00%

Peter Tomasulo

100.00%

$224,542.77

0.00%

0.00%

Bobby Gates

100.00%

$255,081.88

0.00%

0.00%

Scott Gutschewski

100.00%

$233,311.20

0.00%

0.00%

Michael Putnam

99.98%

$223,920.11

0.00%

0.03%

Jim Herman

97.69%

$218,150.92

0.00%

-0.99%

Justin Hicks

90.59%

$218,391.83

0.00%

0.14%

Scott Gardiner

77.54%

$214,652.75

0.00%

-4.27%

David Hearn

61.96%

$224,247.38

0.00%

44.63%

Brendan Steele

50.57%

$228,543.59

0.00%

40.32%

Joe Affrunti

40.65%

$221,063.19

0.00%

32.60%

James Hahn

35.09%

$208,755.64

0.00%

16.39%

Colt Knost

33.88%

$210,477.23

0.00%

28.40%

B.J. Staten

21.99%

$201,265.67

0.00%

-27.84%

Chris Nallen

15.34%

$198,351.00

0.00%

-5.99%

J.J. Killeen

12.01%

$157,912.58

0.00%

10.17%

William McGirt

11.44%

$188,034.72

0.00%

-3.31%

Nate Smith

11.31%

$199,251.88

0.00%

-23.11%

Brandt Jobe

8.29%

$194,905.32

0.00%

-40.37%

Rob Oppenheim

7.56%

$159,305.70

0.00%

4.05%

Zach Miller

4.57%

$140,367.65

0.00%

0.92%

Jason Gore

3.97%

$161,297.05

0.00%

1.47%

Gavin Coles

3.33%

$155,656.41

0.00%

-1.71%

John Riegger

2.27%

$166,083.17

0.00%

-0.36%

Dicky Pride

1.84%

$155,736.28

0.00%

-0.67%

Brian Smock

1.81%

$162,284.74

0.00%

-2.97%

Paul Claxton

1.64%

$142,574.70

0.00%

-0.16%

Alistair Presnell

1.47%

$171,192.16

0.00%

-5.73%

Jeff Brehaut

0.84%

$125,084.59

0.00%

-0.93%

Andrew Svoboda

0.55%

$145,108.29

0.00%

-4.26%

Jin Park

0.41%

$154,286.12

0.00%

-1.07%

Jon Mills

0.33%

$181,124.02

0.00%

-15.41%

Jeff Curl

0.32%

$124,919.63

0.00%

-2.14%

David Branshaw

0.28%

$140,917.31

0.00%

-3.04%

Doug LaBelle II

0.14%

$125,589.58

0.00%

-0.93%

Bradley Iles

0.10%

$147,387.91

0.00%

-3.56%

Jonas Blixt

0.10%

$120,075.55

0.00%

-3.54%

Kyle Thompson

0.07%

$140,599.72

0.00%

-1.32%

Scott Stallings

0.06%

$128,381.20

0.00%

-2.93%

Travis Bertoni

0.02%

$131,481.71

0.00%

-1.57%

Mark Anderson

0.01%

$116,975.91

0.00%

-1.83%

Ewan Porter

0.00%

$125,704.68

0.00%

-0.80%

Geoffrey Sisk

0.00%

$139,555.83

0.00%

-1.65%

Kyle Stanley

0.00%

$168,739.37

0.00%

-9.12%

Steve Pate

0.00%

$140,161.42

0.00%

-1.26%

Won Joon Lee

0.00%

$166,278.07

0.00%

-6.30%

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NATIONWIDE TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP PGA TOUR CARD ODDS

I’m sure any headlines around this event will be focused on Jason Gore or some player who is about to earn his tour card with a good performance. In reality, it’s a much bigger week for Jamie Lovemark.

Qualifying on the number is basically provisional status on tour. Winning the money list puts you a notch up in exemption status and guarantees a spot in some bigger events like the PLAYERS.

By shooting a 69, and with Chris Kirk’s withdrawal, Jamie Lovemark moved from about 48 percent to win the money list to 65 percent. Really a huge round for him.

As far as earning a card, James Hahn and Brendan Steele made the biggest moves. Hahn was less than one-in-five to earn a tour card, then fired a tied-for-field-best 66 and is basically a coin flip. Steele matched the 66 and improved his chances by about 25%. William McGirt and Joe Affrunti improved their chances of playing in the big leagues next season by about 20%.

Brandt Jobe, who has been on the PGA Tour before, and B.J. Staten hurt their chances the most. Each losing about 25%. Jason Gore, who everyone makes a hero because of three great rounds at Pinehurst No. 2, is still less than 4% to get into the top 25.

FULL MONEYLIST ODDS:

PLAYER    

Top-25

Money

Win

Jamie Lovemark

100.00%

454,154.12

64.46%

Hunter Haas

100.00%

409,975.61

14.27%

Kevin Chappell

100.00%

354,249.77

5.86%

Tommy Gainey

100.00%

413,556.73

5.83%

Daniel Summerhays

100.00%

395,534.42

4.39%

Jhonathan Vegas

100.00%

338,453.00

1.62%

Tag Ridings

100.00%

282,519.38

1.06%

Fabian Gomez

100.00%

276,694.44

0.52%

Martin Piller

100.00%

338,799.60

0.51%

Kevin Kisner

100.00%

275,961.90

0.45%

David Mathis

100.00%

272,878.06

0.44%

Keegan Bradley

100.00%

274,321.02

0.33%

Steven Bowditch

100.00%

267,589.00

0.26%

Chris Kirk

100.00%

411,206.00

0.00%

D.J. Brigman

100.00%

252,668.32

0.00%

Peter Tomasulo

100.00%

231,339.25

0.00%

Robert Gates

100.00%

263,481.28

0.00%

Scott Gutschewski

100.00%

244,399.38

0.00%

Michael Putnam

99.95%

231,158.74

0.00%

Jim Herman

97.56%

217,644.50

0.00%

Justin Hicks

92.15%

220,519.01

0.00%

Scott Gardiner

89.86%

231,144.49

0.00%

James Hahn

50.70%

223,614.93

0.00%

Brendan Steele

35.45%

211,179.13

0.00%

William McGirt

33.07%

209,303.27

0.00%

Joe Affrunti

27.61%

203,769.74

0.00%

David Hearn

26.37%

201,453.04

0.00%

Chris Nallen

25.23%

202,447.03

0.00%

B.J. Staten

22.97%

199,937.78

0.00%

Nathan Smith

22.08%

200,675.50

0.00%

Brandt Jobe

18.69%

198,309.53

0.00%

Colt Knost

11.32%

179,517.35

0.00%

Jon Mills

5.81%

185,941.53

0.00%

Rob Oppenheim

5.29%

151,639.39

0.00%

Alistair Presnell

5.22%

175,913.48

0.00%

John Riegger

4.67%

168,357.25

0.00%

Gavin Coles

4.58%

155,710.88

0.00%

Jason Gore

3.91%

159,146.70

0.00%

Brian Smock

2.56%

161,976.06

0.00%

J.J. Killeen

1.90%

130,268.59

0.00%

David Branshaw

1.90%

145,526.86

0.00%

Kyle Thompson

1.63%

146,988.60

0.00%

Bradley Iles

1.51%

151,961.73

0.00%

Zach Miller

1.37%

128,237.13

0.00%

Paul Claxton

1.20%

138,390.22

0.00%

Jeff Curl

0.95%

126,506.44

0.00%

Jonas Blixt

0.80%

123,766.26

0.00%

Dicky Pride

0.74%

150,966.42

0.00%

Jin Park

0.62%

153,136.27

0.00%

Jeff Brehaut

0.59%

121,729.63

0.00%

Travis Bertoni

0.45%

135,693.07

0.00%

Andrew Svoboda

0.44%

142,269.72

0.00%

Doug LaBelle II

0.24%

124,912.97

0.00%

Ewan Porter

0.14%

126,930.30

0.00%

Kyle Stanley

0.12%

170,019.49

0.00%

Geoffrey Sisk

0.10%

140,612.44

0.00%

Mark Anderson

0.10%

118,705.85

0.00%

Steve Pate

0.09%

142,027.85

0.00%

Scott Stallings

0.04%

127,479.71

0.00%

Won Joon Lee

0.02%

166,141.86

0.00%

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ODDS OF EARNING A PGA TOUR CARD

With the Nationwide Tour Championship taking place this week and the top-25 players earning a PGA Tour card, I decided to set up a little simulation to determine what chance every player has of earning a PGA Tour card for next season.

The top-60 players on the Nationwide money list qualify for the Tour Championship. As far as I can tell the purse structure breaks down like this. That doesn’t look too official, but it aligns with the winners share, total purse and breakdown from last year that were published on the official site, so I went with it.

Here are the results of 50,000 sims using two-year performance:

PLAYER

Top-25

Money

Win

Jamie Lovemark

100.00%

$449,024.59

48.57%

Chris Kirk

100.00%

$433,279.10

17.99%

Tommy Gainey

100.00%

$417,128.35

8.78%

Daniel Summerhays

100.00%

$394,032.33

4.27%

Hunter Haas

100.00%

$390,218.17

4.69%

Martin Piller

100.00%

$343,131.20

1.42%

Jhonathan Vegas

100.00%

$346,664.61

4.20%

Kevin Chappell

100.00%

$348,315.95

4.75%

Fabian Gomez

100.00%

$283,126.81

1.35%

Keegan Bradley

100.00%

$280,917.76

1.11%

Kevin Kisner

100.00%

$279,471.26

0.92%

David Mathis

100.00%

$276,591.11

0.85%

Steven Bowditch

100.00%

$264,772.71

0.30%

Tag Ridings

100.00%

$276,163.78

0.80%

Robert Gates

100.00%

$266,859.99

0.00%

D.J. Brigman

100.00%

$250,522.50

0.00%

Scott Gutschewski

100.00%

$238,842.56

0.00%

Peter Tomasulo

100.00%

$234,521.97

0.00%

Michael Putnam

99.95%

$233,484.77

0.00%

Jim Herman

98.68%

$220,863.40

0.00%

Justin Hicks

90.45%

$215,081.47

0.00%

Scott Gardiner

81.81%

$218,901.89

0.00%

B.J. Staten

49.83%

$207,867.43

0.00%

Brandt Jobe

48.66%

$214,801.89

0.00%

Nathan Smith

34.42%

$203,948.14

0.00%

Chris Nallen

21.33%

$200,509.96

0.00%

James Hahn

18.70%

$194,812.47

0.00%

David Hearn

17.33%

$195,951.91

0.00%

Jon Mills

15.74%

$192,763.29

0.00%

William McGirt

14.75%

$188,951.36

0.00%

Brendan Steele

10.25%

$184,266.07

0.00%

Kyle Stanley

9.12%

$182,609.52

0.00%

Joe Affrunti

8.05%

$178,672.75

0.00%

Alistair Presnell

7.20%

$177,591.72

0.00%

Won Joon Lee

6.30%

$177,156.76

0.00%

Colt Knost

5.48%

$168,995.85

0.00%

Gavin Coles

5.04%

$154,868.65

0.00%

Andrew Svoboda

4.81%

$153,345.19

0.00%

Brian Smock

4.78%

$164,522.63

0.00%

Bradley Iles

3.66%

$155,626.89

0.00%

Zach Miller

3.65%

$133,340.85

0.00%

Jonas Blixt

3.64%

$131,724.86

0.00%

Rob Oppenheim

3.51%

$145,541.60

0.00%

David Branshaw

3.32%

$147,289.75

0.00%

Scott Stallings

2.99%

$138,246.54

0.00%

John Riegger

2.63%

$162,718.81

0.00%

Dicky Pride

2.51%

$154,580.12

0.00%

Jason Gore

2.50%

$153,855.38

0.00%

Jeff Curl

2.46%

$130,154.30

0.00%

Mark Anderson

1.84%

$125,823.48

0.00%

J.J. Killeen

1.84%

$128,637.83

0.00%

Paul Claxton

1.80%

$138,957.78

0.00%

Jeff Brehaut

1.77%

$124,910.07

0.00%

Geoffrey Sisk

1.65%

$146,202.74

0.00%

Travis Bertoni

1.59%

$139,134.49

0.00%

Jin Park

1.48%

$154,835.41

0.00%

Kyle Thompson

1.39%

$144,921.45

0.00%

Steve Pate

1.26%

$145,538.40

0.00%

Doug LaBelle II

1.07%

$127,957.30

0.00%

Ewan Porter

0.80%

$128,862.06

0.00%

And 5 guys that could make an impact on the PGA Tour this year:

Chris Kirk

Kirk falls into the category of Rickie Fowler in that he twice appeared in the Sagarin top-10 college players. Kirk has struggled in his first two professional years in more limited action. This year, he played fully on the Nationwide tour and was almost as good as Rickie Fowler on the PGA Tour, picking up two wins and two seconds in 21 starts. If 2010, is his true level of performance he’s probably around 80% to win back his tour card next season.

Jamie Lovemark

Jamie Lovemark made his losing two years ago, in the same playoff as Rickie Fowler, at the Frys.com Open. Lovemark didn’t get his PGA Tour card this year, but fared quite well on the NW Tour, leading its money list. Lovemark wasn’t quite as consistently good as Kirk this year, but racked up a lot of high finishes. In around 100 professional rounds, Lovemark is around a PGA Tour average player.

Kevin Chappell

Like Kirk, Kevin Chappell was a highly decorated college player, who struggled at first after turning pro. Chappell played less than 40 rounds in 2009 and was worse than NW average. With a fuller schedule this year, he was significantly better. With some good luck, he can probably finish around 100 on the PGA Tour money list next season. With some better luck, he can snag a win.

Daniel Summerhays

Daniel Summerhays 2010 season, was the best of his career, ranking above PGA Tour average. After a good 2007, with not enough events to get high enough on NW money list, and an unlucky 2008, where he finished 35th, Summerhays was awful in 2009. This year, he turned that around and if you consider 2009 and outlier, for whatever reason, Summerhays has a chance to be slightly better than average next season.

Hunter Haas

Like Summerhays, Hunter Haas has been close before and rebounded from a off 2009 with his strongest, and most fortunate, season to date. Haas’ two wins this season were enough to finally break into the top-25. Haas has been right around average since 2006, with the exception of 2009, so he should have a decent shot at a top-125 finish on the PGA Tour.

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WHY RICKIE FOWLER IS GOOD, BUT NOT THAT GOOD

Rickie Fowler is good, but how good?

It doesn’t take long starting at this weeks Fill-in-the-blank-sponsor-who-won’t-be-still-sponsoring-this-garbage-fall-series-event-in-two-years-Fall-Series-event to see what the elephant in the room is.

“Rickie Fowler +1015”

That’s right. Rickie Fowler, with 126 rounds on the major professional tours, is favored over a slightly below average field on the PGA Tour.

There was a time when I would just call this insane and think nothing of it. However, let’s try to look at why Rickie Fowler really isn’t that good.

To be honest, there are a lot of unknowns about Rickie. He hasn’t played a ton of rounds on the PGA Tour and he’s young. How do we account for an actual skill and potential upside?

Luckily, Golfweek has the Sagarin ratings for College players*. This is a pretty good objective judge of players.

*Based on their PGA Tour rankings, I’d say the SOS is a little off and using win % against other players then converting that to a score is good to rank players but is not a great indication of the true difference between players.

Next, I went back and looked at how rookies have fared in their first season on a major tour**.

**I defined a rookie year as the first season with over 39 rounds played on a major tour without having played more than 40 total rounds on the major tours in previous years.

Fowler, in fact, is in pretty good company for a young player. There were only 27 players, in the past 10 years, that have appeared in Golfweek’s Sagarin college top-10 in multiple seasons. You would probably recognize the names of Anthony Kim, Dustin Johnson, Lucas Glover, Luke Donald, Hunter Mahan, Ryan Moore, Rickie Fowler, Camilo Villegas, Nick Watney, Oliver Wilson and Rhys Davies among them.

Fowler has also had a good start to his PGA Tour career. From 2005-2009 there were 89 players that made their major tour debut-under my definition-and had at least one season in the Sagarin college rankings. Fowler’s 2010 rookie season (Although 30 rounds in 2009 is probably a big advantage for him) would rank third behind only Sean O’Hair and Anthony Kim.
So, there is no doubt that Fowler has been really good this year. However, to be favored in this event, there has to be a pretty high upside for Rickie. Looking at comparable players has that been the case?

Starting with all college players in 2005, who registered rounds for the next 5 years, here is a look at the progression in average score. There turned out to be 7 players who came from the college ranks in 2005, that stuck around until 2010. (Charlie Wi, Martin Laird, Camilo Villegas, Sean O’Hair, Chris Nallen, Ryan Moore, Peter Tomasulo)

As you can see, there is some progression from this 2005*** group. But, that’s only seven players, two of which Villegas,O’Hair are clearly top-20 players in the world. That’s probably an outlier as is the fact that Moore, Nallen and Laird all had very above average season.

***I used 2005 to start because this was the first year that I had a good sample going forward and the Sagarin ratings had a good sample going backward.

To check this out I combined it with other classes (Year 0=rookie year):

This gives Rickie a modest boost for upside around .05 standard deviations. Certainly, that falls short of Vegas’ expectations, but does allow some room for growth.

What happens if we get more specific and take the ten most similar rookie seasons to Rickie Fowler:
Anthony Kim, Sean O’Hair, Ryan Moore, Webb Simpson, Kevin Streelman, Steve Marino, Derek Lamely, Brendan Todd, Daniel Summerhays, Alejandro Canizares and Jeff Overton:

This supports the possible theory that players that are good in their first year on tour are in some part lucky. On average, the guys with great rookie seasons actually regressed in year 1 and 2. After Year 3, I wouldn’t put too much weight in this chart as the players from the classes with more than 3 years are Ryan Moore, Steve Marino, Jeff Overton and Sean O’Hair who all turned into really good players in 2009 and 2010.

It’s important to remember where Rickie Fowler falls in all this. He is one of a small group of players who posted two really good college seasons. He came out onto the PGA Tour and put together a really good rookie season. There is no doubt that he is good. Just not favored over a field that includes Watney, Mahan and Kim to name a few.

As far as conclusive evidence towards a possible upside, there really is not too much with the limited rankings I have. When you look at the big picture of players there is probably some evidence to slight improvements in the sophomore season, but it’s not much. I’d have to say my rankings are pretty fair on Rickie Fowler.

That means 10-1 to win isn’t.

FULL ODDS:

WIN % ODDS
Nick Watney 8.57% 1067
Hunter Mahan 6.98% 1333
Kevin Na 5.94% 1584
Charley Hoffman 5.70% 1653
Anthony Kim 5.68% 1661
Steve Marino 4.88% 1948
Rickie Fowler 4.71% 2023
Bryce Molder 3.99% 2408
Paul Goydos 3.49% 2767
Rory Sabbatini 3.41% 2833
Stephen Ames 3.28% 2950
Brian Gay 3.14% 3089
Davis Love III 3.10% 3121
Kevin Sutherland 2.83% 3435

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SESSION FOUR SINGLES PAIRINGS BREAKDOWN

Full Match Odds:

MATCH 1
Stricker 38.48% 160
Westwood 48.48% 106
Tie 13.04% 667
MATCH 2
Cink 38.13% 162
McIlroy 49.20% 103
Tie 12.67% 689
MATCH 3
furyk 37.99% 163
donald 49.30% 103
Tie 12.71% 687
MATCH4
D Johnson 33.68% 197
Kaymer 54.41% -119
Tie 11.91% 740
MATCH 5
Kuchar 45.42% 120
Poulter 42.03% 138
Tie 12.55% 697
MATCH 6
Overton 46.29% 116
Fisher 41.51% 141
Tie 12.20% 720
MATCH 7
Watson 49.11% 104
Jimenez 38.76% 158
Tie 12.13% 724
MATCH8
Woods 46.81% 114
Molinari 40.50% 147
Tie 12.69% 688
MATCH9
Fowler 49.99% 100
Molinari 36.50% 174
Tie 13.51% 640
MATCH10
Mickelson 46.76% 114
Hanson 40.72% 146
Tie 12.52% 699
MATCH11
Z Johnson 48.91% 104
Harrington 38.29% 161
Tie 12.80% 681
MATCH12
Mahan 54.76% -121
McDowell 33.10% 202
Tie 12.14% 724
US ePTS 12.62
EURO ePTS 15.38

Overall:

Tie % 8.55% 1070
US Win % 15.90% 529
Euro Win % 75.55% -309

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UPDATED SUNDAY RYDER CUPS ODDS

Well, that third session is going well for Europe.

There’s about a 16.6% chance that the Europeans go undefeated in that session. The American alternate shot teams are doing quite poorly with a 1.5% and 5.6%, respectively chance of getting the win. Here’s the breakdown of the expected distribution from the third session:

US POINTS PCT
0 16.65%
0.5 14.71%
1 27.12%
1.5 15.82%
2 15.22%
2.5 6.02%
3 3.26%
3.5 0.80%
4 0.37%
4.5 0.03%
5 0.01%
5.5 0.00%
6 0.00%

The most likely outcome is that the US manages to get a point and takes a 9-7 deficit into the final Singles session. Once, out of 10,000 sims the US won five points, which is pretty absurd.

IN PROGRESS MATCH ODDS

USA ePTs-EURO ePTS 7.19 8.81
MATCH 1
Furyk/DJ 25.56% 291
Harrington/Fisher 58.76% -142
Tie 15.68% 538
MATCH 2
Watson/Overton 13.64% 633
Hanson/MAJ 74.80% -297
Tie 11.56% 765
MATCH 3
Cink/Kuchar 24.08% 315
Molinaris 61.00% -156
Tie 14.92% 570
MATCH 4
Mickelson/Fowler 16.68% 500
Poulter/Kaymer 72.08% -258
Tie 11.24% 790
ALT1
Stricker/Woods 1.64% 5998
Donald/Westwood 95.04% -1916
Tie 3.32% 2912
ALT2 thru 7
Mahan/ZJ 5.64% 1673
McIlroy/G-Mac 87.96% -731
Tie 6.40% 1463

The average outcome falls somewhere between 8.5-7.5 and 9-7. The US is down, but I don’t think its quite as bad as RyderCup.com’s projected 10 to 6 score of six European flags on the board.

RYDER CUP ODDS:

Anyway you slice it, not a good session for the US, but with some good luck, things can change very quickly. Should be at least competitive tomorrow.

Tie % 8.81% 1035
US Win % 24.65% 306
Euro Win % 66.54% -199

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SUNDAY SIXSOME ODDS

MATCH 1
woods/stricker 51.51% -106
jimenez/hanson 36.30% 175
Tie 12.19% 720
MATCH 2
ZJ/mahan 39.08% 156
molinaris 48.40% 107
Tie 12.52% 698
MATCH 3
furyk/fowler 33.90% 195
westwood/kaymer 53.01% -113
Tie 13.09% 664
MATCH4
Mickelson/DJ 39.78% 151
fisher/harrington 49.06% 104
Tie 11.16% 796
MATCH 5
bubba/overton 35.31% 183
poulter/donald 52.73% -112
Tie 11.96% 736
MATCH 6
cink/kuchar 35.83% 179
rory/gmac 50.99% -104
Tie 13.18% 659

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