Want to know why the World Golf Championship Match Play Championship shouldn’t count in the rankings.
Simple. Almost every other event in the world is a stroke play event and there are lot of other variables in match play. Like, how your opponent plays.
Below, is a list of my top-10 and bottom-10 players from this week based on a simple ranking. Birdie percentage. How many birdies did the player make. Then they are standardized based on how the field average (23.90%) would do for the number of holes the player played for the week. That’s why Westwood (30.49% over 82 holes) is ahead of Manassero (33.33% over 33 holes).
Player (Top 10) |
Bird % |
Holes |
St. Dev. |
Wins |
Hunter Mahan |
36.46% |
96 |
2.886 |
6 |
Martin Laird |
33.82% |
68 |
1.920 |
3 |
Lee Westwood |
30.49% |
82 |
1.400 |
4 |
Matteo Manassero |
33.33% |
33 |
1.271 |
1 |
Graeme McDowell |
35.29% |
17 |
1.102 |
0 |
Peter Hanson |
29.51% |
61 |
1.028 |
3 |
Keegan Bradley |
31.25% |
32 |
0.975 |
1 |
Rickie Fowler |
33.33% |
18 |
0.939 |
0 |
Rory McIlroy |
27.72% |
101 |
0.902 |
5 |
Dustin Johnson |
29.17% |
48 |
0.856 |
2 |
Player (Bottom 10) |
Bird % |
Holes |
St. Dev. |
Wins |
Tiger Woods |
16.67% |
36 |
-1.017 |
1 |
Greg Chalmers |
12.50% |
16 |
-1.069 |
0 |
Sang-Moon Bae |
17.91% |
67 |
-1.149 |
3 |
K.J. Choi |
11.76% |
17 |
-1.173 |
0 |
Aaron Baddeley |
11.76% |
17 |
-1.173 |
0 |
Kyung Tae Kim |
6.67% |
15 |
-1.565 |
0 |
Robert Rock |
11.76% |
34 |
-1.659 |
1 |
Jason Dufner |
5.88% |
17 |
-1.742 |
0 |
Fredrik Jacobson |
0.00% |
13 |
-2.020 |
0 |
Francesco Molinari |
6.06% |
33 |
-2.403 |
1 |
This isn’t perfect, because it’s possible in the short term for someone to do something like make 8 birdies and 8 bogeys in a round (Gary Woodland was close). However, over the longer run, good players shoot lower scores. There is not a tradeoff between a player who makes a lot of birdies making a lot of bogeys also.
The basic point is golf is mostly a sport about what your individual skill can do on the course. When you play match play, it often becomes more about what your opponent does, which isn’t really meaningful to anyone.
Here’s a look at the final 8 finishers and their “defense” for the tournament.
Player |
Bird % |
Holes |
St. Dev. |
Hunter Mahan Opponent |
21.88% |
96 |
-0.464 |
Martin Laird Opponent |
25.00% |
68 |
0.213 |
Lee Westwood Opponent |
26.83% |
82 |
0.623 |
Peter Hanson Opponent |
14.75% |
61 |
-1.674 |
Rory McIlroy Opponent |
18.81% |
101 |
-1.198 |
Matt Kuchar Opponent |
20.97% |
62 |
-0.541 |
Mark Wilson Opponent |
21.52% |
79 |
-0.495 |
Sang-Moon Bae Opponent |
23.88% |
67 |
-0.003 |
As you can see, most of them played fantastic defense for the tournament. Rory McIlroy, for the first four rounds, and Peter Hanson were particularly tenacious around the hole. They simply did not allow their opponents to make birdies.
Take a look at Rory’s first four matches compared to Steve Stricker’s first three:
Round |
Player |
Birdies |
Holes |
Delta |
1 |
George Coetzee |
3 |
18 |
-1.30134 |
2 |
Anders Hansen |
2 |
16 |
-1.82342 |
3 |
Miguel Angel Jimenez |
2 |
17 |
-2.06238 |
4 |
Sang-Moon Bae |
1 |
16 |
-2.82342 |
Total |
Rory McIlroy Opponent |
8 |
67 |
-8.01056 |
The Delta Column is the difference between the number of birdies Rory’s opponents made and the number of birdies they would be expected to make going by the field average. I know: It’s quite possible Rory’s birdie defense is explainable partly because none of those players are above the field average for this event.
Round |
Player |
Birdies |
Holes |
Delta |
R1 |
Kevin Na |
4 |
17 |
-0.06238 |
R2 |
Louis Oosthuizen |
3 |
18 |
-1.30134 |
R3 |
Hunter Mahan |
9 |
15 |
5.41555 |
Total |
Steve Stricker Opponent |
16 |
50 |
4.05182 |
Hunter Mahan had more birdies against Stricker in 15 holes than all of Rory’s opponents before Sunday had against him.
Player |
Bird. % |
Holes |
Delta |
Steve Stricker |
28.00% |
50 |
2.052 |
Steve Stricker Opponent |
32.00% |
50 |
4.052 |
Rory McIlroy |
22.39% |
67 |
-1.011 |
Rory McIlroy Opponent |
11.94% |
67 |
-8.011 |
Stricker had the fourth most birdies in the field on Friday when he lost to Mahan. So, it’s totally his fault that he ran into a buzzsaw. He should probably work on his ability to deny his opponents birdies.
So Striker birdied more holes, had a lower score for the first three days and ends up with a lot less OWGR points than Rory. How does that make sense?