Monthly Archives: May 2011

SUNDAY GOLF ODDS: BMW EPGA; BYRON NELSON

BMW:

Player

total wins

odds

vegas

winning

Luke Donald

40.07%

150

195

$1.18

Matteo Manassero

23.75%

321

305

$0.96

Lee Westwood

15.70%

537

410

$0.80

Fabrizio Zanotti

2.85%

3409

3000

$0.88

Simon Dyson

2.85%

3409

3000

$0.88

Raphael Jacquelin

2.60%

3746

3000

$0.81

Bradley Dredge

2.04%

4802

3500

$0.73

Alvaro Quiros

1.76%

5582

3000

$0.55

Peter Hanson

1.64%

5998

4500

$0.75

Ross Fisher

0.98%

10104

6600

$0.66

David Horsey

0.94%

10538

7500

$0.71

Jose Manuel Lara

0.80%

12400

9000

$0.73

Anders Hansen

0.72%

13789

10000

$0.73

I doubt Donald is actually value. There is no question that he has played over his head of late, and I think there is some kind of impact for playing under the Sunday pressure. Donald is a past winner, but he is not an obscene closer. Looks like it’s pretty fair here.

If you care, Donald has about a 64% chance of topping Westwood this week if that matters in the OWGR. Eight-percent that they tie.

Byron Nelson:

Player

total wins

odds

vegas

winning

Ryan Palmer

28.30%

253

325

$1.20

Sergio Garcia

23.06%

334

295

$0.91

Matt Kuchar

9.42%

962

725

$0.78

Arjun Atwal

6.89%

1351

1400

$1.03

Ryuji Imada

5.78%

1630

1050

$0.66

Nick Watney

4.34%

2204

1550

$0.72

Gary Woodland

4.23%

2264

1500

$0.68

Jeff Overton

2.55%

3822

1900

$0.51

Joe Ogilvie

2.25%

4344

2700

$0.63

Dustin Johnson

1.84%

5335

3800

$0.72

Rod Pampling

1.49%

6611

5000

$0.76

Keegan Bradley

1.25%

7900

9000

$1.14

John Rollins

1.19%

8303

6500

$0.79

Scott Piercy

1.19%

8303

8000

$0.96

Vijay Singh

1.00%

9900

11000

$1.11

Tim Petrovic

0.99%

10001

9000

$0.90

Vaughn Taylor

0.72%

13789

18000

$1.30

It’s interesting to see that Donald and Palmer are each valued about the same right now. I really think that is just final round pressure for leaders. I don’t see much here, either. Taylor might be alright for a shot in the dark. He’s not great, but he’s been consistent over the past four years. Vijay is definitely on the way down, but it’s not like I have him valued as some superstar. That’s not terrible either. Keegan Bradley, from what I can tell, is in “contention” for the first time and it might be reasonable to assume he will start feeling some pressure if he gets close. At his skil and that price, it wouldn’t take that much of an downward adjustment to make that a bad price.

Jordan Spieth is not listed here, but I have him basically at the same as the books. It’s interesting that even with a good history here, no one thinks he is better than the average for players with less than 40 rounds, at least not yet.

 

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A LOOK AT THE TOP FINISHERS AT THE COLONIAL

Nice week to David Toms and Charlie Wi this week. Toms played two great rounds, one really good one and one horrendous one. Charlie Wi was a bit more consistent, but both players were a lot better than this field.

David Toms

The blue line is Toms average in relation to the field at each of these events. The Green line is how he fared in relation to that average. The Red line is his Vegas price based on the 2-year-average.

As you can see Toms came into this week on quite a roll with 4 of 5 events playing at or below his average. Not surprisingly, he went from being “value” to being “not value*.”

Value and not value are in relation to my rankings over 2 years. In reality, the fact that Toms was playing so well coming in, would probably give him a small bonus in the short term.

Charlie Wi

Charlie was not coming into this week on a hot streak like Toms. He did play well last week and I’m assuming because his game would seem to fit this course he was a little lower this week.

Bo Van Pelt

Up-and-down play coming in this week, but coming off three “bad” tournaments in a row. I would guess BVP had as much respect as he has every had coming off the Masters, but a few bad weeks and he went back to underrated it seems.

Zach Johnson

I’m not sure why the price on Johnson kept dropping prior to the Masters, then shot back up again, but it does make sense that it would drop as the defending champ coming off a decent week at the PLAYERS.

Robert Karlsson

Chez Reavie

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COLONIAL: ROUND 2

I thought maybe Carl Petterson’s two final rounds at the RBC Canadian Open last year were on par with what David Toms did here in two consecutive rounds.

I was wrong.

Petterson’s final two rounds summed to about -4.16 standard deviations, around enough difference between him and the field to win a tournament over four rounds. He just did it over two.

@TheTMLJ suggested Rory’s final two at Quail Hollow last year. Turns out he had a better guess than I did. Rory’s two rounds summed to -5.70 over the final two rounds in his win. That’s insane. Over four rounds, that is basically enough difference between you and the field (average PGA Tour golfer, playing average) to win 90% of PGA Tour events. Rory did that in just two rounds.

So, how does Toms compare?

Unadjusted for the field Toms two rounds have summed to -5.22. I would doubt that with this field Toms will be able to top what Rory did against a strong weekend Quail Hollow field.

It’s still very impressive, though. Let me know if you can think of a player or instance where someone put together two really great rounds in a row.

Toms wins this week about 74% of the time based on my adjusted rankings. The average low score for everyone not named Toms in the field this week is -15.02, so Toms would either have to be caught by a great effort from someone or fall apart.

Here’s the full odds:

David Toms

73.83%

John Senden

3.41%

Mark Wilson

3.39%

Rickie Fowler

3.34%

Charlie Wi

3.29%

Rory Sabbatini

2.68%

Steven Bowditch

1.14%

Bill Haas

1.05%

 

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VOLVO WORLD GOLF MATCH PLAY: ROUND OF 16

I’m not sure how the same structured sim can come up with this for winners:

Player

Sim w%

ODDS

VEGAS

ROI

Lee Westwood

12.22%

718

450

$0.67

Martin Kaymer

11.16%

796

640

$0.83

Luke Donald

10.61%

843

465

$0.60

Rory McIlroy

9.49%

954

1000

$1.04

Graeme McDowell

8.91%

1022

1200

$1.16

Francesco Molinari

7.78%

1185

1800

$1.48

Charl Schwartzel

6.16%

1523

1000

$0.68

Ross Fisher

5.80%

1624

2700

$1.62

Alvaro Quiros

5.57%

1695

950

$0.58

Ian Poulter

5.22%

1816

1750

$0.97

Soren Kjeldsen

3.88%

2477

3500

$1.40

Nicolas Colsaerts

3.26%

2967

2500

$0.85

Jhonattan Vegas

3.09%

3136

3300

$1.05

Aaron Baddeley

2.76%

3523

2000

$0.58

Seung-Yul Noh

2.20%

4445

4000

$0.90

Johan Edfors

1.89%

5191

7000

$1.34

And this for tomorrow’s first matches:

Player

16 w%

ODDS

VEGAS

ROI

Lee Westwood

58.70%

-142

-180

$0.91

Martin Kaymer

60.56%

-154

-190

$0.92

Luke Donald

64.89%

-185

-260

$0.90

Rory McIlroy

50.44%

-102

-120

$0.92

Graeme McDowell

49.56%

102

-110

$0.95

Francesco Molinari

59.68%

-148

-125

$1.07

Charl Schwartzel

51.77%

-107

-135

$0.90

Ross Fisher

48.23%

107

105

$0.99

Alvaro Quiros

58.55%

-141

-170

$0.93

Ian Poulter

41.30%

142

150

$1.03

Soren Kjeldsen

39.44%

154

158

$1.02

Nicolas Colsaerts

50.15%

-101

-135

$0.87

Jhonattan Vegas

49.85%

101

105

$1.02

Aaron Baddeley

40.32%

148

-105

$0.79

Seung-Yul Noh

41.45%

141

140

$0.99

Johan Edfors

35.11%

185

200

$1.05

I’m assuming Baddeley and Molinari’s recent play is why I’m so far off in that one, but all the rest look pretty close.

I’ll update the Volvo again tomorrow night. Toms odds are coming later…

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2011 PLAYERS SUNDAY: LIVE ODDS AND COMMENTARY

Live odds and commentary, updated throughout the day:

Updated

5:39 PM

1000 sims

Player

Pct

Thru

David Toms

60.20%

13

K.J. Choi

30.50%

13

Nick Watney

3.10%

13

Paul Goydos

2.60%

14

 

Updated

5:16 PM

1000 sims

Player

Pct

Thru

David Toms

63.90%

11

K.J. Choi

15.60%

11

Nick Watney

4.50%

13

Paul Goydos

1.70%

14

Luke Donald

4.80%

12

Graeme McDowell

6.50%

11

 

Updated

4:58 PM

1000 sims

Player

Pct

Thru

David Toms

45.90%

10

Paul Goydos

0.60%

13

K.J. Choi

26.10%

10

Luke Donald

1.90%

11

Nick Watney

18.90%

11

Graeme McDowell

4.30%

10

 

Updated

4:19 PM

1000 sims

Player

Pct

Thru

David Toms

55.20%

9

K.J. Choi

13.80%

9

Graeme McDowell

6.70%

9

Paul Goydos

4.70%

10

Nick Watney

8.00%

9

Chris Stroud

0.00%

17

Charley Hoffman

0.00%

13

Hunter Mahan

0.30%

12

Luke Donald

3.30%

9

Steve Stricker

2.40%

9

Jason Dufner

1.70%

9

 

Updated

4:00 PM

1000 sims

Player

Pct

Thru

David Toms

58.20%

7

Nick Watney

11.90%

8

Graeme McDowell

9.10%

7

K.J. Choi

10.80%

6

Chris Stroud

0.00%

16

Hunter Mahan

0.20%

12

Paul Goydos

0.90%

9

Luke Donald

2.50%

8

Steve Stricker

2.50%

8

Aaron Baddeley

1.60%

7

Jason Dufner

1.00%

7

 

Updated

3:13 PM

1000 sims

Player

Pct

Thru

David Toms

31.70%

4

K.J. Choi

23.20%

4

Graeme McDowell

20.50%

4

Nick Watney

10.70%

5

Chris Stroud

0.30%

13

Steve Stricker

6.00%

5

Hunter Mahan

0.70%

9

Sean O’Hair

0.70%

6

Luke Donald

3.10%

5

Davis Love III

1.60%

5

 

Updated

2:28 PM

1000 sims

Player

Pct

Thru

Nick Watney

21.10%

3

K.J. Choi

26.20%

1

Graeme McDowell

26.40%

1

David Toms

12.40%

1

Davis Love III

2.40%

2

Chris Stroud

0.30%

10

Hunter Mahan

1.50%

6

Steve Stricker

3.50%

3

Aaron Baddeley

1.30%

2

Jason Dufner

1.20%

2

Spencer Levin

0.40%

4

Paul Goydos

0.30%

3

Sean O’Hair

0.80%

3

Luke Donald

1.10%

3

J.B. Holmes

0.10%

5

Robert Karlsson

0.20%

5

Martin Kaymer

0.40%

4

 

Updated

2:02 PM

1000 sims

Player

Pct

Thru

Graeme McDowell

30.00%

K.J. Choi

18.30%

David Toms

13.80%

Nick Watney

9.30%

1

Chris Stroud

0.60%

9

Sean O’Hair

1.40%

2

Luke Donald

7.40%

1

Steve Stricker

6.50%

1

Aaron Baddeley

2.70%

1

Jason Dufner

3.10%

1

Davis Love III

2.80%

1

Hunter Mahan

0.70%

5

Robert Karlsson

0.60%

4

Paul Goydos

0.20%

1

Alvaro Quiros

1.20%

1

Greg Chalmers

0.00%

8

J.B. Holmes

0.10%

4

Just a note: As always, these will be slightly delayed earlier in the day, just because the leaderboard tends to run behind a little.

Updated

1:09:42 PM

1000 sims

Player

Pct

Thru

Graeme McDowell

31.70%

K.J. Choi

18.20%

David Toms

13.50%

Luke Donald

7.80%

Steve Stricker

6.40%

Nick Watney

5.10%

Aaron Baddeley

2.90%

Jason Dufner

2.90%

Davis Love III

3.80%

Chris Stroud

0.30%

6

Paul Goydos

0.80%

Alvaro Quiros

1.80%

Stewart Cink

0.10%

2

Robert Karlsson

0.10%

1

Martin Kaymer

1.50%

Spencer Levin

0.70%

Rory Sabbatini

0.50%

Would love to know what Stricker was at when he was -12 thru 11 holes in his third round. Was he leading at that point?

Would also like to what G-Mac’s odds as a third-round leader would have been last night.

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ROUND 2 PLAYERS ODDS

David Toms

13.76%

Nick Watney

13.62%

Graeme McDowell

7.01%

Steve Stricker

11.41%

Luke Donald

12.91%

Lucas Glover

6.18%

Aaron Baddeley

2.85%

Hunter Mahan

6.08%

J.B. Holmes

3.88%

Davis Love III

1.95%

Robert Karlsson

1.41%

Chris Stroud

0.80%

Greg Chalmers

0.74%

Brian Davis

1.09%

Rory Sabbatini

1.76%

K.J. Choi

2.88%

Jason Day

1.69%

Kevin Streelman

0.47%

Paul Goydos

0.39%

Jason Dufner

0.73%

Martin Kaymer

2.09%

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2011 PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP

Tiger Woods
A couple of huge red flags for Tiger this week. One, he apparently hasn’t hit a ball since the Masters. Uh oh. I think at the Masters, and majors in general, Tiger has been able to “late night cram” his game to close to his 5-year average. That being said, not hitting a golf ball for a few weeks is not promising, although admittedly, no one really knows what exactly is going on in Tiger’s camp.
The other knock on Tiger Woods is his general malaise in playing regular tour events over the last two years. In regular events, Tiger has played about 25-40 in the world. In majors, he’s slightly behind Westwood as No. 2. I really can’t see Tiger giving a crap this week.
Of course, that still means he has a chance to win, but I think even the adjustment I made there (based solely on Vegas price vs. Performance for all golfers) is still to high.

Steve Stricker
I’ll be the first to admit that there is a touch of good variance/luck in Stricker’s great play over the past two years. That’s pretty evident in the prices he always goes off at. Still, I can’t help but feel there is a little value still here. Stricker, in only 30 some odd rounds, has played near what I think is a good average for him (-.62). I don’t think Stricker has show any evidence of falling off the map, and a slew of, “wait, Stricker ended up in the top-15?” finishes make me think he’s on top of his game and could very well win here if he has a good week.

Martin Kaymer
My adjustments look at every player as a whole. Most of the time, I think that’s good. Sometimes, in the case of big name players, the books probably have good incentive to manually adjust guys based on what they feel the public will do. If Kaymer had a bad line, people would know who he is and could potentially hurt the book. On the other hand, Blake Adams, really probably wouldn’t do too much damage to them.
In the case of Kaymer, he appears to have lots of talent, but he might have played over his head last season. Is Kaymer already the world’s second best golfer? I don’t know and based on this price it seems that the books don’t think so. I’d guess that most young players have wildly varying years throughout there 20s so it might be fair to be reasonable with what Kaymer did last season.

Paul Casey
Casey had an extremely good last two years. A slow start to 2011, and you have to wonder were 2009 and 2010 him just playing above his head over a two-year stretch. I’m not sure, but I wouldn’t think there is a ton of value here.

Peter Hanson
Hanson has basically been average for the 2011 season, but was actually quite a good player coming into it. Maybe he doesn’t have his game quite in order right now, but how much can you ignore four straight consistently good years. Like any semi-long shot, it will take lots of good fortune to win here this week, but it’s not like the Players hasn’t had random winners before.

Bryce Molder

Molder’s 2010 was really good, and 2009 above average. He’s back down this year. I know he had a ton of talent in college, but looking at his overall mediocre body of work as a pro, it’s not hard to say the last couple of years were an aberration and there isn’t much value here.

Jhonattan Vegas
So Vegas is not the next greatest player, anymore? Makes sense and as I pointed out before, players that go on a great roll like that usually revert back to their average like the “hot” streak never happened. That appears to have happened with Vegas, except the good play at the beginning of the year is inflating his ranking.

Random LONG Shot(s) of the week: Corey Pavin (1000-1), Blake Adams (830-1), Dean Wilson (810-1)

Odds:

Player

total wins

odds

vegas

winning

Tiger Woods

7.00%

1328

1550

$1.16

Luke Donald

4.19%

2285

1600

$0.71

Phil Mickelson

4.04%

2374

1550

$0.67

Steve Stricker

3.18%

3045

4600

$1.49

Matt Kuchar

3.00%

3231

3400

$1.05

Martin Kaymer

2.46%

3965

4600

$1.16

Jim Furyk

2.35%

4148

4800

$1.15

Hunter Mahan

2.18%

4483

4000

$0.89

Nick Watney

2.04%

4802

4600

$0.96

Dustin Johnson

1.96%

4992

5000

$1.00

Ben Crane

1.83%

5370

3600

$0.68

Charl Schwartzel

1.71%

5734

5500

$0.96

Padraig Harrington

1.63%

6020

5500

$0.92

Adam Scott

1.60%

6158

3400

$0.56

Jason Day

1.58%

6245

5000

$0.80

Paul Casey

1.54%

6410

7500

$1.17

Bubba Watson

1.53%

6419

6000

$0.94

Zach Johnson

1.47%

6703

7000

$1.04

Ian Poulter

1.45%

6806

7000

$1.03

K.J. Choi

1.42%

6942

5500

$0.80

Graeme McDowell

1.34%

7374

7500

$1.02

Geoff Ogilvy

1.32%

7499

6000

$0.80

Bill Haas

1.31%

7522

7000

$0.93

Sergio Garcia

1.29%

7628

6000

$0.79

Francesco Molinari

1.27%

7786

8500

$1.09

 

Any questions, let me know.

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