Monthly Archives: October 2009

VOLVO WORLD MATCH PLAY FINAL DAY

Big Shot Bob +100 v. Angel Cabrera(2)

I waited patiently for the chance to fade Angel all week.

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HALLOWEEN

Syracuse +15.5 -102(1)
Wake Forest +6.5 -105(1)
Vanderbilt +11 -101(1)
Arizona St. +6.5 +100(1)
Illinois +7 -107(1)
Southern Miss +6.5 -107(1)

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STANDARD LOSER

South Florida +3 -105(1)

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WORLD MATCH PLAY FINAL FOUR

Here are the odds I came up with:
volvoff

Don’t think any of the Match-ups tomorrow are playable. Allenby is questionable, but I don’t see any reason that Kim is terribly overrated.

Sunday, though, should be a different story.

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WEEKLY RAPING

Look Contrarian:
Carolina +10 @ Arizona
Jake Delhomme is terrible, Buffalo got rocked by Carolina last week, Arizona coming off a big win against the Giants on Sunday night, strong consensus numbers.

Buffalo +3.5 v. Houston:
Just going by the Wagerline consensus, I am not at all sold on this game. I can’t see Houston being terribly overvalued, and Buffalo is coming off wins against the Panthers and Jets.

Opinionyish:
San Francisco +11.5 @ Indianapolis.
I just can’t see this line not shaded to the Niners. They aren’t that unpopular as W-line consensus goes, but the Colts have to be overrated after they keep blowing by the spread.

Baltimore -3.5
v. Denver
3.5 is a lot for this one. Denver has to be overrated from going 0-6, but basically equivalent to the Ravens seems about right.

St. Louis +4.5 v. Detroit
I know Detroit is not a good football team, but right now who wants to bet on the Rams? Hate fading awful teams, but I might be able to make an exception for the even worse Rams.

Tennessee -3 v. Jacksonville:
Not quite sure how Tennessee is more popular on W-Line, unless they mistakenly think VY will help this team. Remember Tenny is 0-6, coming off a 59 point loss and hosting a 3-3 team.

Cleveland +13.5 v. Chicago:
I’m not sure I can take almost two touchdowns against a team that lost by 35 last week, but the Browns are bad enough that I’m considering it.

The Rest:
Seattle, Miami, NYG(Giants are +2.5 on ESPN), Oakland, Green Bay, Atlanta.

I really have no idea how the NFL card will shape up this week. MNF Under is probably my favorite lean, and we know how that goes.

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ANOTHER WEEK WITH PAULUS!

Watching Eric Maynor in the NBA last night reminded me of times when I could take pleasure in Greg Paulus’ athletic failures.

Leans:
USF +3 v. West Virginia
Not sure this would have popped onto my radar as a strong play amidst a full card of college action, but it looks like a pretty solid play on a stand-alone Friday night. USF has also been really poor the last two games.

Syracuse +15 v. Cincinnati
I’m not even sure Syracuse is underrated, they just plain suck. I’d be willing to say Cincinnati is overrated, though.

Vanderbilt +12 v. Georgia Tech
If Vanderbit is 7 pioints worse than Virginia I am scared to see how this one will turn out.

Illinois +7 v. Michigan
Wow, Juice and Paulus in the same week, again. I can’t wait to rehash this in my Terrible College Quarterbacks Anonymous meeting next week.

Arizona State +7 v. Cal.
Have to look into this one further, but I guess 14-33 against Stanford last week makes this stand out a little.

Tulane +35.5 v. LSU
I really hate these high point spread Big BCS v. tiny not good team on the road game, but I think it is pretty clear that LSU is not as good as people think.

Southern Miss +6.5 v. Houston
Meaningless stat of the week: In conference games only, Southern Miss has out-gained their opponents by about 98 per game. Houston has only out-gained opponents by around 53 per game.

Wake Forest +7.5 v. Miami
This might seem to easy as Miami, I think, has clearly been exposed as a mediocre team. Then, you remember that Wake’s last two outings were a blowout by Clemson and lost to a team that didn’t use that modern gimmick called “the forward pass” all game

Baylor +13 v. Nebraska
Wait, Paulus, Juice AND Baylor. This is better than the free nightlight that comes with the Snuggie.

Northwestern +14.5 v. Penn State
No strong feelings on this game or Northwestern, but if it’s on TV I might get involved.

Other Ideas:
I can’t see myself playing Auburn, last three games aside. I think they are just too overrated after a 6-0 start. Opinion on the Gators in the GFKATWLOCP. Their offense has looked terrible recently(I’d say its more one dimensional, as Demps,Rainey and Tebow make up a pretty solid run game), but the defense is legitimately good unlike Georgia in general.

In the big night timers, I’d say Oregon and OSU. Both of these seem like they are pretty popular for underdogs, but I think Tejas and USC have some serious flaws that people don’t quite realize because they are ranked in the top-5.

Since I’ve babbled on for this long, might as well throw out some small schoolers. Towson got destroyed by Delaware last time I checked 1-aa scores, so +31 at home against Richmond seems like the right idea. Maine getting 7.5 at home against ranked UMass is intriguing.

Somehow, I ended up with a lot more than I originally expected.

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WHY I PASSED VIKING

A) I am a sucker for Match Play.

B) This field was actually worse than Singapore. Take out Phil, Paddy, Ernie and Ogilvy, and the Annondale field is deeper, but the top of the line names at Singapore actually make it harder to win.

C) Nothing at all stuck out to me.

Possible Viking Tourney plays:
Toms v. Campbell
Curtis +100 v Bryd(1) Alright I’m taking that.
Tag Ridings -135 v. Daly.
Thatcher -145 v. “the best story in golf, can Duval qualify?”
Adamonis -120 v. Leif Olson.

Sim -110 v. Fowler would have been quite the internal debate for me. I like Sim as much as the next guy, but he is well known if you wager money on golf. When the price drifted up, it was an easy pass.

Just Ben Curtis in the full tourney match-up this week for the PGA.

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