Monthly Archives: August 2011

FED EX CUP ODDS

If you care:

PLAYER

Average Points

Win

Dustin Johnson

2,785.79

16.20%

Steve Stricker

2,066.12

14.40%

Matt Kuchar

2,473.95

13.17%

Luke Donald

2,003.77

12.42%

Nick Watney

1,858.68

7.51%

Phil Mickelson

1,316.39

5.06%

Webb Simpson

1,436.27

2.95%

Jason Day

1,083.72

2.92%

Adam Scott

931.79

2.53%

K.J. Choi

1,044.87

2.18%

Brandt Snedeker

1,224.55

2.13%

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NICE LAST THREE HOLES, KEEGAN

If I were Keegan Bradley I would probably retire.

He played 16-17 and 18 twice today in a total of 19 strokes. For the week, the field would be expected to take just under 24 strokes to complete those three holes.

Let’s start with regulation:

9

10

11

12

13

14

>15

1.03%

8.95%

29.00%

32.29%

18.61%

7.17%

2.90%

 

And, it gets even more impressive if you add in the total for the playoff

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

0.13%

1.69%

5.75%

15.33%

21.88%

21.81%

33.37%

 

Pretty crazy.

NEW RANKINGS:

 

Player

score

rds

st dev

1

Steve Stricker

-0.7196

154

0.85773

2

Lee Westwood

-0.7077

163

0.915378

3

Tiger Woods

-0.6567

111

0.977736

4

Matt Kuchar

-0.6321

191

0.796547

5

Luke Donald

-0.6103

187

0.848237

6

Rory McIlroy

-0.5597

176

1.009073

7

Phil Mickelson

-0.5277

179

0.925336

8

Martin Kaymer

-0.5209

166

0.793631

9

Nick Watney

-0.5103

178

0.962151

10

Dustin Johnson

-0.4723

178

0.975149

11

Zach Johnson

-0.4432

185

0.860379

12

Jim Furyk

-0.4359

169

0.90363

13

Paul Casey

-0.4329

145

0.964726

14

Francesco Molinari

-0.4299

189

0.897799

15

Graeme McDowell

-0.4262

188

0.927394

16

Charl Schwartzel

-0.4213

213

0.896659

17

Retief Goosen

-0.4191

192

0.892094

18

Adam Scott

-0.4160

148

0.979477

19

Bill Haas

-0.4117

196

0.869323

 

Keegan is still No. 119, Dufner is No. 77.

And, one more thing. I talked a little about guys the market feared coming into the week. Keegan was right in the middle of that group. So with the hot play coming in, someone felt like he could close the deal this week:

Player

Vegas Odds

$ROI

Thomas Bjorn

30000

$0.26

Andres Romero

10000

$0.27

Ryo Ishikawa

13000

$0.27

Gary Woodland

9500

$0.29

Keegan Bradley

16000

$0.29

Jose Maria Olazabal

100000

$0.30

Adam Scott

2300

$0.31

Rory McIlroy

1000

$0.31

Yuta Ikeda

78500

$0.31

Anthony Kim

8500

$0.33

Rickie Fowler

3000

$0.34

Scott Stallings

43000

$0.37

Jason Day

2700

$0.40

 

 

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2011 PGA Championship Live Chat

PGA Championship Sunday Live Chat:

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2011 PGA CHAMPIONSHIP: FINAL ROUND

Player

total wins

Brendan Steele

23.44%

Jason Dufner

23.33%

Keegan Bradley

15.31%

Steve Stricker

10.20%

Scott Verplank

9.27%

Anders Hansen

2.09%

D.A. Points

2.06%

Adam Scott

1.94%

Charl Schwartzel

1.77%

David Toms

1.69%

Lee Westwood

1.40%

Luke Donald

1.16%

Robert Karlsson

1.03%

These look pretty standard to me. Technically, you’re getting a good price on Steele and Dufner, but this seems pretty in-line with major championship contenders who are relatively new to the pressure. My sample is small, but there is definitely an effect to playing in the final group of a major. Dufner is a solid touring pro, who should be around average of the field strength tomorrow, but you could make a case if either Brendan Steele or Keegan Bradley won, they would be the worst player to win a major in a while.

A couple of people thought, I’d like Stricker on twitter. I’m not surprised at all I am low on him. No one respects players in contention at a major that haven’t really been there before. Stricker is probably the biggest name in contention right now and I’m not shocked at where Dufner and Steele are.

I’m going to try a live chat around 3 p.m. tomorrow.

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2011 PGA CHAMPIONSHIP: ROUND 2 LIVE ODDS

Player

total wins

odds

Steve Stricker

38.71%

158

Luke Donald

3.68%

2617

Rory McIlroy

3.40%

2843

Lee Westwood

3.10%

3130

Adam Scott

2.82%

3444

Scott Verplank

2.41%

4043

Bill Haas

2.36%

4141

Jerry Kelly

2.21%

4417

Nick Watney

2.01%

4880

Matteo Manassero

1.86%

5288

Brendon de Jonge

1.76%

5595

Simon Dyson

1.71%

5748

Matt Kuchar

1.49%

6629

Anders Hansen

1.48%

6648

Phil Mickelson

1.40%

7023

Davis Love III

1.39%

7074

Stewart Cink

1.39%

7105

John Senden

1.34%

7374

Shaun Micheel

1.33%

7441

Brandt Jobe

1.18%

8346

Jason Day

1.07%

9246

Zach Johnson

1.05%

9388

K.J. Choi

1.02%

9666

Steve Stricker

Only one real story here. Great round from Stricker today. I wonder how many players will play 15-18 in -2 this week. Stricker picked up about 3.5 of his around 10 shots on the field just in that stretch alone.

I realize there probably isn’t a great history with players leading big after round 1 and Stricker does not have a good history closing majors, but I don’t think most people realize how good he really is. If there is one player who I have been continually impressed with and continually has exceeded my expectations it is Steve Stricker. He hits it long enough, he’s a very good mid-iron player and he has the world’s best short game.

How did I do?

Two days ago I predicted the course average based solely on the last four PGA Championships and hole yardage. So, How did I do?

Hole

Yardage

Proj Avg.

1st Round

Difference

1

454

4.223

4.0513

-0.172

2

512

4.467

4.2564

-0.210

3

475

4.311

4.3846

0.073

4

219

3.236

3.2115

-0.025

5

565

4.689

4.6538

-0.036

6

425

4.101

4.1603

0.059

7

184

3.089

3.0385

-0.051

8

467

4.278

4.3718

0.094

9

426

4.106

4.2051

0.099

10

442

4.173

3.9615

-0.211

11

457

4.236

4.1474

-0.088

12

551

4.631

4.8782

0.248

13

372

3.879

4.0833

0.205

14

468

4.282

4.1795

-0.103

15

260

3.408

3.4359

0.028

16

476

4.316

4.2179

-0.098

17

207

3.186

3.1603

-0.025

18

507

4.446

4.7115

0.266

TOTAL

7467

73.057

73.1088

0.003

Overall, I was right on, though I did miss on a few holes. I wonder if that was because of easy hole positions or moved up tees or whatever.

Interestingly, water didn’t seem to have a huge effect except on 18. The 15th hole was brutally long with a water hazard right next to it, but played almost identically to the 3.4, that I projected it. Maybe 18 should be a par-5 the next time around. It played harder than the 5th which is 60 yards longer.

Tiger Woods

This is a perfect example of why you don’t change your swing without practicing. Tiger clearly had some personal stuff going on last year around Whistling Straits, but it’s hard to say he’s moved forward at all this year. Tiger is still the most talented golfer in the world, but it’s going to take a lot of work to get this new swing down. I thought playing three weeks in the playoffs would be good for Tiger coming into this week, but I think he’d be better off hitting the range for a while after today.

I’m bumped his ranking back to just his two-years since the return, and that gives him about a 1 in 10 chance of playing on the weekend.

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2011 PGA CHAMPIONSHIP: LIVE FIRST ROUND ODDS

1:40 PM:

Two holes to go and Steve Stricker is -7.

Score

<63

63

64

>64

Steve Stricker

2.20%

19.80%

47.00%

31.00%

 

1:15 PM:

That was a nice birdie for Stricker now -7 through 14 holes.

Score

<63

63

64

>64

59 or less

Steve Stricker

5.00%

18.80%

32.00%

44.20%

0.00%

Alexander Noren

0.00%

2.00%

5.80%

92.20%

0.00%

1:10 PM:

Adding Alex Noren who just made Eagle. Stricker about to tap in for birdie.

Score

<63

63

64

>64

59 or less

Steve Stricker

0.00%

2.80%

10.20%

87.00%

0.00%

Alexander Noren

0.20%

3.00%

7.40%

89.40%

0.00%

12:50 PM:

Stricker’s odds drop after apparently he missed a short birdie putt on 3. Part of that is because he’s running out of holes to make birdies and part of that is because guys keep making bogeys so my course average keeps drifting up.

Score

<63

63

64

>64

59 or less

Steve Stricker

6.60%

11.70%

23.00%

58.70%

0.00%

To win:

1000

sims

     

Tiger Woods*

0.30%

33233

6

15

Padraig Harrington*

0.20%

49900

3

14

Steve Stricker*

27.30%

266

-6

12

Phil Mickelson*

2.90%

3348

0

17

Alexander Noren

0.80%

12400

-3

11

Luke Donald*

3.70%

2603

-1

16

 

12:30 PM:

Stricker -6 thru 11

Score

<63

63

64

>64

Steve Stricker

17.70%

17.80%

23.20%

41.30%

 

12:20 PM:

Adding the Steve Stricker score tracker:

Score

<63

63

64

>64

Steve Stricker

17.80%

19.60%

19.60%

43.00%

 

2000

sims

     

Tiger Woods*

0.15%

66567

5

13

Padraig Harrington*

0.00%

#DIV/0!

3

13

Steve Stricker*

28.35%

253

-6

10

Phil Mickelson*

2.00%

4900

1

11

Bubba Watson*

1.55%

6352

-1

11

Luke Donald*

4.90%

1941

-2

13

 

12:00 PM:

2000

sims

     

Tiger Woods*

0.90%

11011

4

11

Padraig Harrington*

0.25%

39900

3

11

Steve Stricker*

22.25%

349

-5

9

Phil Mickelson*

1.65%

5961

1

11

Bubba Watson*

4.70%

2028

-3

9

Luke Donald*

9.55%

947

-2

11

 

11:50 AM:

Will update in a few with Stricker’s birdie on 9.

2000

sims

     

Tiger Woods*

1.05%

9424

4

11

Padraig Harrington*

0.20%

49900

3

11

Steve Stricker*

15.75%

535

-5

9

Phil Mickelson*

1.70%

5782

1

11

Bubba Watson*

4.35%

2199

-3

9

Luke Donald*

9.35%

970

-2

11

 

11:15 AM:

Tiger is falling apart.

2000

sims

     

Tiger Woods*

2.70%

3604

2

9

Padraig Harrington*

0.50%

19900

1

8

Steve Stricker*

15.05%

564

-4

6

Phil Mickelson*

2.10%

4662

1

10

Paul Casey*

0.20%

49900

1

6

Luke Donald*

6.60%

1415

-1

9

 

10:30 AM:

Okay, I guess 15 is hard.

2000

sims

     

Tiger Woods*

6.60%

1415

-1

6

Padraig Harrington*

0.80%

12400

1

6

Steve Stricker*

18.75%

433

-3

4

Phil Mickelson*

3.35%

2885

0

7

Paul Casey*

1.30%

7592

0

4

Luke Donald*

3.30%

2930

0

6

 

10:00 AM:

Tiger has looked pretty good so far, but he started well at Whistling Straits, too. He’s coming up to a “tough” stretch of 15-18. I say “tough” because the media called this whole course hard and so far, guys are scoring pretty well.

2000

sims

     

Tiger Woods*

16.400%

510

-3

5

Padraig Harrington*

1.200%

8233

0

5

Steve Stricker*

7.800%

1182

-2

2

Phil Mickelson*

2.300%

4248

0

6

Paul Casey*

0.700%

14186

1

2

Luke Donald*

10.300%

871

-2

5

 

9:30 AM:

Wouldn’t put too much into these, because it’s still early, but it should be a decent barometer of where things are going.

2000

sims

     

Tiger Woods*

13.950%

617

-2

3

Padraig Harrington*

1.800%

5456

-1

3

Steve Stricker

2.650%

3674

Phil Mickelson*

2.900%

3348

0

3

Paul Casey

0.700%

14186

Luke Donald*

11.450%

773

-2

3

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2011 PGA CHAMPIONSHIP: WHO THE MARKET FEARS

I found that you can get a pretty good estimate of a golfer’s true performance by comparing my two-year rankings to the Vegas Lines for the week. The “market” is pretty good at factoring in stuff that I don’t, like recent performance or course history or whatever else matters. So here’s a look at players that “the market” really likes this week:

Rory McIlroy

Rory has probably established himself as the best young player right now with his major win at Congressional. That being said, there is no proof he is Tiger Woods, just yet. He’s more like a Sergio Garcia with a really good week in a major. That’s not bad and if you take Tiger out of the picture there will probably be a time he is the best golfer in the world. He is not a Tiger-like phenom, however. That being said, Rory is No. 3 in the world in play in just majors since 2010. He definitely has the type of game to win this week, just not sure the level he has played at majors is sustainable for him right now based on his full body of work.

Odds to win: Between 20-1 and 13-1.

Anthony Kim

You could probably make just as good a case that Kim will never live up to the talent that he has been hyped to as you could that he will. So far, it’s been an inconsistent career for Kim. At times he has looked like one of the five best players on tour and other times he has looked just average. Only 8 players (can you guess them) have been better than Kim in the last seven majors, however.

Odds to win: Between 130-1 and 85-1.

Adam Scott

Scott has had a pretty remarkable career in that he was very good at a young age, stayed pretty good, had one terrible year and now is back like it never happened before. Since that terrible year was 2009, it is included in my rankings. That’s probably a pretty good reason I’m low on him. Another reason is Steve Williams guided him to a win last week. Scott is a pretty rare talent when you think about how long he has been good for, so there aren’t many players who should be ahead of him this week.

Odds to win: Between 45-1 and 25-1.

Rickie Fowler

Between calling Rickie Fowler overrated and being blinded by his obnoxious shirts, it’s easy to overlook how good he has been this season.for someone going on 23. Fowler has played well in majors, too, but it’s hard not to think about Kim and Garcia and Scott when projecting Rickie into multiple majors and unlimited golf skill

Odds to win: Between 50-1 and 30-1.

Gary Woodland

He hits it a mile and he’s won this year, so I guess he’s going to be good right? I’d say he’s the leader in the clubhouse for the Jeff Overton (How’s he doing by the way compared to say… Bo Van Pelt?) Memorial Don’t Deserve to represent the US in an International Competition Award

Odds to win: Between 150-1 and 100-1.

Ryo Ishikawa

Ryo gets a lot of hype and maybe his performance on the Japanese Tour is legendary, but outside of Japan he hasn’t really lived up to the expectations. He’s still super young, but I’m not sure how much potential there is for a guy that can putt the lights out, but hasn’t figured out the ball-striking quite yet. This is almost completely opposite of every other great young player.

Odds to win: Between 200-1 and 150-1.

Thomas Bjorn

I guess we need one random surprise in this group, too. Bjorn is not “Bjorn” in America, so I guess he’s got that going for him. Otherwise, I can’t figure out what people like about him this week, but based on his price I would expect him to play above his average. Of course, that could be finishing T-30 and never contending.

Odds to win: Between 500-1 and 300-1.

 

 

 

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