Monthly Archives: February 2009

ACCENTURE MATCH PLAY SEMIFINALS

Love Ross Fisher.

Fisher +140 over Paul Casey(4).

Casey is posting big wins and has the much higher name recognition which is what makes this the right thing to do. I grabbed this literally right after the Greek opened it up.

Some people may look to hedge the Fisher future I posted earlier today. Not me, I just keep piling on.

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VERY EARLY FINAL FOUR

As it stands right now there is a very good chance that Cink/Casey move through and Ogilvy is into the final four. Fisher is ahead on Leonard but that is a little dicier. I assumed the following final four:
accentureff
First number is % to win the afternoon matches, second column is odds through 1000 XLS simulations, 2nd odds column is % to win and the American odds.

I would say Ogilvy -145 against Cink with a small lean to Cink in that one. Casey I could see as -140 or -135 against Fisher, and slightly less against Leonard. Big lean to Fisher, smaller one to Leonard.

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GETTING BACK TO HOOPS

It’s been a bit of a refresher the last two days to step away from College Hoops. It’s not that I was doing awful or needed to completely change the process(I am up about 14 units since Jan. 1) It’s that I didn’t have the time, energy or desire to continue the same process with the WGC’s going on.

Part of why I gamble(if it were legal, of course) is to have fun and simply stated, I have more fun gambling on golf. I am not dissappointed at all that I stepped away from hoops for a few days. I’m going to test the water with a few picks today, but only the “obvious” ones for the next couple days. Expect me to get back to hoops full swing on Monday.

We’ll see how this works out, but I think taking a break when you are up(in the short term)is much better than taking a break when you are down.

Temple +3 over Dayton(.8):
Dayton is coming off two loses in a row, and ranked 30 spots lower than Temple in the Pomeroys. Having taken the past few days off, this completely shocked me. I have no problem taking Temple here, especially since they lost to LaSalle(haha) their last time out.

Cleveland St. +7 over Butler(.8):
Oh, those bastards from Butler. My opinion of Butler(overrated) is clearly right, but I have failed to turn it into money.

Georgetown +6.5 over Villanova (.8):
I have been away for a few days but I seem to remember Georgetown being awful against Marquette and Louisville. It turns out Georgetown has been awful against everyone recently, going 2-9 in their last 11(Yay! selective endpoints.)

Okie St. -1.5 over Texas(.8):
It was incredibly painful to back Texas against Oklahoma. It is probably good sign when saying “I picked Texas” causes you more pain than “I picked Oklahoma St.” No problem with the Okies here.

Passes:
North Carolina over G-Tech:
Throw out the pomeroys when these two get together. The Pom’s are least accurate in games like this because of the inevitable garbage time. Like Texas against Oklahoma, this is just a game I do not want to get involved with.(yet, I got involved in that game).

Seton Hall over Pitt:
This is a really average card from a gambling perspective. Absolutely nothing jumped out to me. I guess Seton Hall is worth a look, but coming off 6 out of 7 covers and combined with a Pitt loss last time out, this is not a play.

Depaul over St. Johns:
Depaul favored? Ha. Depaul is the Nick Watney of College Hoops. I knew they had it in them, I just made no money off of it.

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ACCENTURE MATCH PLAY: ELITE 8

This week has the potential to be hilariously funny. When Noren and Wilson win, and I lose money overall in the matchplay event all I can do is laugh.

For all the talk about Tiger, there were actually some decent matchups yesterday and Today. Ogilvy/Villegas, Cink/Mickelson Els/Donald are some pretty decent matchups. Today, Ogilvy/ McIlroy will be worth watching, as well as Cink/Els.
THE ODDS
accentureelite8
I messed up on the chart, Casey is not -255, but -155. The projected edge is -.05ish.

THE PICKS
Fisher to win WGC-Match Play +865(.41)
O’Hair +150 over Casey(2)
Stewart Cink +120 over Els(2)
Ross Fisher +100(2)

Fisher is obviously the right way to go. He has proved over the past three days that he deserves to be considered among the games’ 25 or so best. I don’t think I am too crazy when I say Fisher is one of the three best players remaining in the field.

O’Hair and Cink are slam dunk picks. Casey is getting lots of attention for mauling some mediocre players, and winning in the European Desert series earlier this year. Cink has probably been a better player over a 1 year span than Els, but people love the Els.

McIlroy is a possibility, going up against the world’s greatest Match Play player. Why is no one respecting Stewart’s history here, while they are all over Ogilvy’s?

Put in O’Hair and Cink last night as well as Fisher. Waiting on McIlroy. My instinct last night said McIlroy floats up a bit and Fisher holds the same. Fisher randomly dropped to +100 at 5dimes when I got home from the bar.

How does a play go from borderline to double? When the line shifts from -115 to 100. Normally this would scare me off, but given my opinion of Fisher(newest golf crush) and when I placed this(somewhat drunk), Fisher was -110 at Pinnacle, -115 at The Greek and Bookmaker, this is a double.

I put the O’Hair play and Cink in very early. Basically once my sims were done about 8:30 last night. I wouldn’t play Cink less than +120 for a double. I think +110 is the limit for him. O’Hair has some more latitude. I think you play that one, down to +130 as a single. Fisher is questionable if you are laying juice. -105 may be acceptable but wait for that line to drift up a bit before you make a play.

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GUESSING GOLF ODDS: ELITE 8

This could be a bit of an adventure with matches still on the course, but I always enjoy looking ahead.(Probably so I can forget the results of the past) Leans are bolded.

    SNEAD

Ross Fisher -115/ Oliver Wilson -105
Ross Fisher -105/ Justin Leonard -115

    PLAYER

Paul Casey -135/ Ian Poulter +115
Paul Casey -150/ Sean O’Hair +130

    JONES

Geoff Ogilvy -113/Rory McIlroy -107
Camilo Villegas -120/Rory McIlory 100

    HOGAN

Ernie Els -120/ Stewart Cink +100
Phil Mickelson -130/ Ernie Els +110

I think that was all reasonable possibilities. Odds post should up later tonight or tomorrow morning depending on when the matches start tomorrow.

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3RD ROUND PICKS

Because the first two have gone so well:

Ross Fisher +125(2)
Sean O’Hair +120(2)
Hansen +169(2)
Oliver Wilson +110(2)
Ogilvy +109(1)

Still considering Cink, McIlroy and adding on to Sean O’Hair.

When there are only 8 matches things like this start to happen:

Adding,
Sean O’Hair +115(1)
Fisher +136(1)
Cink +126(1)
Hanson +168(1)

I thought about this and I just coudn’t justify making on a 4 play over the any of the other three, so I decided to make them all 3 plays.

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WHY WORDPRESS?

I like their multi-page feature as well as others a lot better. This will allow me to more fully publish my WGR’s without taking up a ton of space between other posts. Also, I think I am going to put a page up that just has picks, because my college hoops picks with no explanation feel like they just get in the way.

Hopefully, this will make things easier for everyone. If you have any problems let me know.

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