Monthly Archives: March 2009

MLB NOTES: AL EAST

BALTIMORE ORIOLES:
Greek: 73.5
Pinny: Over -138, 56.2 true %
PECOTA: 75-87(825RS-906RA)

PROS:
-A few weeks ago, this was really a great spot. You have the overrated Red Sox and Yankees, the defending AL Champs and the Blue Jays who are going to be awful this season in their division.
-Unknown pitching staff.

CONS:
-PECOTA has downgraded them to 75 wins since I last checked.

BETTOR’S NOTE: At one point this was +110 at the Greek for the over which would have been a nice bet. At -138 at pinny now, that is probably not any value.

VERDICT: Orioles will be a nice look against some of their powerhouse divisional rivals.

BOSTON RED SOX, NEW YORK YANKEES:
Both overrated and I will be picking against them a lot. That is all that needs to be said.

TAMPA BAY RAYS:
I’m honestly not sure what to do with the Rays. On one hand, they were underrated last year and will get less attention than the Yankees and Red Sox. It’s not like they aren’t getting any attention, though. They did make it to the World Series with the same players last season. They added Burrell. I’m going to have to wait on this to see how people are reacting to the Rays once the season starts.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS.

I may or may not get to the rest of the divisions, but they will probably be in a different format. New Golf Rankings will be up later tonight.

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DON’T FEEL LIKE POSTING ANYTHING RIGHT NOW

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SHELL HOUSTON OPEN FIRST LOOK

Just saw the odds at the Greek for the first time. Not surprisingly most of my ideas are European.

Sergio Garcia may not turn into a pick, but at 20-1, priced alongside Stricker and Harrington he certainly stands out among that group. The swedish duo of Henrik Stenson and Robert Karrlson are very interesting as well. I’m not sure this course really fits their games, but there is no reason these guys should be priced behind Charley Hoffman. Lee Westwood at 60-1 also jumped off the page to me. I’m going to have to think about these after how the Euro’s played last week, but these prices seem ridiculous at first glance.

On the other side of it, Phil is ridiculously overpriced. I thought I would have to wait for the Masters to fade Phil but this week could offer a good oppurtunity. Geoff Ogilvy has a high finish at Redstone in his past, but otherwise should probably not be the second highest player in the field.

Obviously Charley Hoffman and Davis Love are overrated this week. I love how people are making a big deal of Davis getting passed in the OWGR’s for a spot in the Masters. Deal with it, Davis sucks.

If you love America, Paul Casey and Rory McIlroy are probably priced a little too high in relation to the other Euros. As always, I need to see a lot more before I make final decisions.

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SERIOUSLY, JUST STOP.

tigerscreen

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THE FINAL FOUR

UConn -4 v. Michigan St.
No lean here.

UConn is pretty highly thought of by the public, but considering Pomeroy currently has them as the best team too, that probably isn’t all that unfair.

Connecticut is the third most efficent defense in the country this season. They do it by a combination of forcing opponents to shoot a low percentage, getting rebounds and not fouling. They are a surprising 336th in forcing turnovers, although Calhoun’s teams seem to frequently be in the 300s in TO%.

On offense, Connecticut excels at getting rebounds and getting fouled. According to Pomeroy, they were the 12th most efficent offense this season.

Michigan St. is a team I thought was highly overrated by the public, but their recent tournament run has boosted them into Pomeroy’s top-10. It’s not like they are a great team, but 4 seems like a reasonable number regardless of what the early consensus is.

The Spartans will have a semi-home game in Detroit. That shouldn’t be too comforting considering they lost by 35 points the only time they played their earlier this season to UNC. Of course, that was without Goran Suton.

Michigan St. boasts the 23rd best offense and 9th best defense, so clearly they are not in UConn’s class. Living up to their reputation the Spartans do well on both the offensive and defensive glass, which makes up for relatively poor e-fg% on both sides of the court.

Pomeroy has this one at 70-65 and I have it as a pass.

UNC -7.5 v. Villanova:

Allow me a paragraph to describe Villanova,

Tough. Tough. Tough. Tougher. Toughness. Tenacity. Tougher. Tough. Toughnessiocity. Toughness. Tough. Tim Tebow. Tough. Tough. Tough.

Okay, now that we got that out of the way, Villanova is the worst team still alive. They have significantly outplayed their Pomeroy projections in each of the last three games in advancing through UCLA, Duke and Pitt.

Villanova is about middle of the pack for effective height, which is surprising for a major conference team. They are the smallest team left. Not much really jumps out to me about Villanova other than that.

UNC on the other hand is starting to play like the team everyone thought they would be. They have just dominated OU and Gonzaga in their last two outings.

Carolina has a reputation for being a great offensive team(true) and a lazy defensive team(not as much). Ranked 18th in Pomeroy, they do a good job of not fouling on defense and are pretty good at limiting how well their opponents shoot.

On offense, their really isn’t much they don’t do well. At 53% e-fg and absurdly low turnover rate and high number of offensive rebounds collected they have the best offense in college hoops getting 1.23 ppp.

In my mind, UNC is clearly the better team here, 8.5 points so? that is pretty borderline. Considering UNC is coming off two high profile dismantlings of good teams, this one is probably a slight pass too.

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FINAL FOUR FIRST THOUGHTS

Wow. This sucks.

What?

I’m just being honest. Back with some real “analysis” sometime tomorrow.

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GUESSING GOLF ODDS: SHELL HOUSTON OPEN

Phil Mickelson 700
Sergio Garcia 1000
Robert Karlsson 1500
Geoff Ogilvy 1500
Camilo Villegas 1800
Padraig Harrington1800
Henrik Stenson 2000
Anthony Kim 2000
Lee Westwood 2000
Paul Casey 2500
Ernie Els 2500
Steve Stricker 3000
Rory McIlroy 3000
Vijay Singh 3000
Martin Kaymer 4000
Charley Hoffman 4000
Jeev Milkha Singh 4500
Hunter Mahan 4500
Luke Donald 5000
Angel Cabrera 5000
Darren Clarke 5000
Justin Rose 5000
Mathew Goggin 6600
Aaron Baddeley 6600
Chad Campbell 6600
Davis Love III 6600
Stuart Appleby 6600
Alvaro Quiros 8000
Briny Baird 10000

Usually during my early Sunday look nothing really sticks out. This was an eyeopener to say the least. This is a fantastic field and there are some really good fading opportunities here gauging by a 5 second run down of past performance. Don’t know too much about the course, other than they try to set it up like Augusta, which is laughable. Not the kind of week I wanted before a major.

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