Monthly Archives: August 2010

BARCLAYS ROUND 3 FED EX CUP PROJECTIONS

Stricker now the favorite to win, with a pretty good round yesterday. Dustin Johnson moves up to second in average Fed Ex Cup points earned. Tiger is second likeliest to win cup, because he has a great chance of winning an event thus putting himself right there. He also has a higher chance of playing poorly and being out next week than the other contenders.

PLAYER Adv to DB Adv to BMW Adv to TC Average Points 1 avg rank
Steve Stricker 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 2,198.63 16.85% 6.2
Tiger Woods 97.86% 85.99% 58.08% 1,335.48 13.73% 28.3
Jim Furyk 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 1,580.03 8.32% 10.2
Dustin Johnson 100.00% 100.00% 99.96% 1,758.21 6.52% 9.1
Phil Mickelson 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 1,381.53 5.98% 12.2
Matt Kuchar 100.00% 100.00% 99.98% 1,524.98 4.54% 10.4
Ernie Els 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 1,411.82 4.18% 10.7
Hunter Mahan 100.00% 100.00% 99.98% 1,225.94 3.40% 12.9
Paul Casey 100.00% 100.00% 78.55% 942.27 2.96% 19.7
Justin Rose 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 1,325.07 2.54% 11.9
Zach Johnson 100.00% 100.00% 93.00% 974.40 2.36% 17.6
Jason Day 100.00% 100.00% 88.38% 1,123.19 2.22% 16.9
Retief Goosen 100.00% 100.00% 79.51% 827.51 1.96% 20.8
Rory McIlroy 100.00% 100.00% 69.41% 700.63 1.74% 23.1
Tim Clark 100.00% 100.00% 93.70% 866.70 1.58% 19.0
Luke Donald 100.00% 100.00% 80.29% 765.60 1.46% 21.2
Robert Allenby 100.00% 100.00% 73.75% 696.35 1.44% 22.8
Anthony Kim 100.00% 100.00% 61.40% 625.38 1.44% 25.2
Bubba Watson 100.00% 100.00% 99.94% 964.53 1.42% 16.3
Camilo Villegas 100.00% 100.00% 86.05% 816.03 1.42% 20.1
Jeff Overton 100.00% 100.00% 99.64% 867.32 1.30% 18.1
Nick Watney 100.00% 100.00% 51.40% 541.93 1.18% 27.8
Rickie Fowler 100.00% 100.00% 77.09% 696.53 1.12% 23.0
Ben Crane 100.00% 100.00% 95.86% 781.74 1.06% 19.6
Adam Scott 100.00% 100.00% 64.49% 697.84 0.92% 24.6
Sean O’Hair 100.00% 100.00% 37.09% 387.28 0.92% 32.9
Bo Van Pelt 100.00% 100.00% 64.11% 530.23 0.86% 25.8
Ian Poulter 100.00% 99.30% 31.93% 353.01 0.66% 37.1
Padraig Harrington 100.00% 99.00% 34.45% 369.64 0.62% 35.4
Martin Laird 100.00% 97.54% 70.63% 1,051.96 0.54% 23.4
J.B. Holmes 100.00% 100.00% 35.61% 318.24 0.46% 32.6
Kevin Na 100.00% 99.94% 27.41% 284.15 0.42% 37.5
Geoff Ogilvy 100.00% 95.02% 15.31% 191.48 0.40% 47.1
Brian Gay 100.00% 96.62% 16.09% 163.62 0.38% 45.7
Ryan Palmer 100.00% 100.00% 61.20% 517.87 0.34% 26.8
K.J. Choi 100.00% 100.00% 15.17% 151.57 0.30% 43.4
Lucas Glover 100.00% 66.91% 10.70% 135.04 0.28% 56.5
Bill Haas 100.00% 100.00% 51.52% 388.19 0.26% 29.1
Bryce Molder 100.00% 90.94% 10.74% 115.53 0.26% 50.4
Charley Hoffman 100.00% 60.56% 9.02% 107.71 0.22% 60.9
Kenny Perry 100.00% 34.65% 7.18% 99.67 0.22% 72.4
Ryan Moore 100.00% 100.00% 13.55% 153.84 0.16% 47.1
David Toms 100.00% 75.09% 9.32% 103.08 0.16% 54.7
Brandt Snedeker 100.00% 91.84% 7.96% 88.01 0.16% 53.9
Rory Sabbatini 100.00% 67.11% 7.18% 79.16 0.16% 60.2
Scott Verplank 100.00% 94.84% 10.74% 109.23 0.14% 49.2
John Senden 99.98% 77.73% 17.87% 177.49 0.12% 51.6
Kevin Streelman 99.88% 67.25% 16.09% 168.70 0.12% 56.8
Stephen Ames 100.00% 65.99% 9.26% 98.25 0.12% 59.0
Stewart Cink 100.00% 95.82% 10.32% 92.93 0.10% 47.9
Justin Leonard 100.00% 47.88% 5.20% 55.95 0.10% 67.3
Davis Love III 84.41% 24.89% 3.36% 41.35 0.10% 80.4
Angel Cabrera 100.00% 75.49% 12.71% 132.39 0.08% 53.9
Paul Goydos 100.00% 20.59% 3.42% 43.56 0.08% 80.6
Vaughn Taylor 100.00% 100.00% 31.55% 269.16 0.06% 36.1
Charlie Wi 100.00% 97.88% 14.11% 119.05 0.06% 46.2
Heath Slocum 100.00% 99.08% 13.65% 114.91 0.06% 45.7
Jason Bohn 100.00% 100.00% 9.16% 82.64 0.06% 48.6
Steve Marino 100.00% 43.86% 6.30% 74.40 0.06% 68.4
Pat Perez 100.00% 58.32% 5.26% 53.32 0.06% 63.7
Vijay Singh 100.00% 29.91% 4.26% 52.04 0.06% 75.1
Michael Sim 100.00% 68.13% 9.00% 96.66 0.04% 58.8
Brendon de Jonge 100.00% 100.00% 10.14% 74.67 0.04% 43.3
Marc Leishman 100.00% 93.36% 6.62% 59.99 0.04% 52.8
D.J. Trahan 100.00% 62.44% 5.52% 56.25 0.04% 62.6
Matt Jones 100.00% 59.52% 4.34% 45.74 0.04% 64.1
Charles Howell III 100.00% 63.85% 4.54% 45.27 0.04% 61.0
Chad Campbell 100.00% 37.03% 3.26% 37.20 0.04% 72.6
Tim Petrovic 100.00% 33.25% 2.52% 27.69 0.04% 74.5
Webb Simpson 99.20% 38.62% 2.84% 26.43 0.04% 72.4
Tom Gillis 100.00% 16.79% 1.98% 19.90 0.04% 82.3
Ryuji Imada 99.10% 48.96% 6.50% 61.96 0.02% 67.5
Y.E. Yang 100.00% 61.68% 5.10% 52.51 0.02% 62.6
D.A. Points 100.00% 33.83% 3.06% 30.73 0.02% 74.0
J.P. Hayes 96.44% 31.25% 3.08% 29.80 0.02% 76.0
Chad Collins 99.72% 16.79% 2.32% 24.91 0.02% 83.6
Brian Davis 100.00% 75.03% 2.66% 23.57 0.02% 61.4
Chris Couch 91.72% 23.73% 1.90% 19.57 0.02% 80.6
John Rollins 100.00% 24.97% 1.60% 16.18 0.02% 77.7
Robert Garrigus 64.31% 11.80% 1.32% 13.77 0.02% 92.3
Andres Romero 53.72% 8.26% 1.10% 13.25 0.02% 95.6
Steve Elkington 100.00% 14.59% 1.30% 12.59 0.02% 83.7
Carl Pettersson 100.00% 100.00% 14.09% 90.30 0.00% 39.1
Fredrik Jacobson 100.00% 97.92% 6.92% 68.99 0.00% 52.9
Ricky Barnes 100.00% 100.00% 7.06% 62.78 0.00% 49.2
Stuart Appleby 100.00% 100.00% 7.96% 50.14 0.00% 44.6
Jason Dufner 100.00% 28.65% 3.40% 36.96 0.00% 76.0
Josh Teater 99.94% 40.84% 3.00% 29.55 0.00% 71.5
Spencer Levin 100.00% 47.92% 1.96% 18.97 0.00% 68.5
J.J. Henry 100.00% 25.09% 1.80% 18.45 0.00% 78.0
Boo Weekley 100.00% 10.28% 1.56% 18.21 0.00% 87.0
Greg Chalmers 100.00% 52.92% 2.04% 16.59 0.00% 67.4
Jimmy Walker 100.00% 19.89% 1.18% 13.07 0.00% 80.5
Troy Matteson 87.11% 22.33% 1.46% 12.48 0.00% 82.3
Blake Adams 85.81% 7.50% 1.26% 11.78 0.00% 90.7
Shaun Micheel 100.00% 16.05% 1.12% 11.27 0.00% 82.7
Garrett Willis 98.12% 6.94% 1.00% 10.49 0.00% 90.4
Aaron Baddeley 72.21% 10.68% 0.94% 9.35 0.00% 89.7
Kris Blanks 100.00% 7.92% 0.88% 9.08 0.00% 89.2
Alex Prugh 100.00% 5.54% 0.54% 5.81 0.00% 91.1
Jonathan Byrd 30.35% 5.66% 0.54% 5.00 0.00% 101.5
Chris Riley 56.10% 3.52% 0.36% 4.39 0.00% 95.2
John Merrick 31.55% 3.40% 0.36% 3.49 0.00% 100.9
David Duval 37.82% 2.88% 0.14% 2.11 0.00% 102.8
Kevin Sutherland 14.87% 1.46% 0.26% 1.56 0.00% 99.9
Jerry Kelly 1.10% 0.06% 0.00% 0.00 0.00% 103.1
Alex Cejka 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00 0.00% 104.4

MAKING BANK
TOP 5 in ROUND 3
Dustin Johnson $225,718.08
Martin Laird $139,960.99
Justin Rose $104,158.14
Adam Scott $47,854.50
Ryan Palmer $46,548.59

TOP OVERALL
Dustin Johnson $239,148.04
Martin Laird $161,540.99
Jason Day $146,232.48
Matt Kuchar $110,994.05
Justin Rose $109,414.42

BURNING CASH
BOTTOM 5 for ROUND 3
Tiger Woods -$96,593.43
Ernie Els -$57,401.74
Robert Allenby -$41,375.58
Ben Crane -$40,311.19
Zach Johnson -$27,384.47

BOTTOM 5 OVERALL
Phil Mickelson -$128,637.16
Ernie Els -$71,789.28
Anthony Kim -$54,794.85
Tim Clark -$50,240.01
Bo Van Pelt -$40,037.05

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BARCLAYS ROUND 2 UPDATED FED EX CUP PROJECTIONS

PLAYER Adv to DB Adv to BMW Adv to TC Average Points TO WIN
Tiger Woods 99.13% 93.12% 74.67% 1,843.89 19.79%
Steve Stricker 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 2,153.60 15.92%
Jim Furyk 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 1,594.05 8.30%
Phil Mickelson 100.00% 100.00% 99.95% 1,433.83 6.48%
Ernie Els 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 1,544.21 4.12%
Matt Kuchar 100.00% 100.00% 99.95% 1,436.44 3.97%
Paul Casey 100.00% 100.00% 79.35% 1,043.36 3.69%
Hunter Mahan 100.00% 100.00% 99.98% 1,250.44 3.14%
Zach Johnson 100.00% 100.00% 94.49% 1,105.20 2.70%
Dustin Johnson 100.00% 100.00% 98.02% 1,102.14 2.56%
Jason Day 100.00% 100.00% 79.76% 1,027.05 1.75%
Bubba Watson 100.00% 100.00% 99.65% 975.41 1.73%
Rory McIlroy 100.00% 100.00% 75.45% 750.26 1.66%
Retief Goosen 100.00% 100.00% 74.55% 804.52 1.59%
Nick Watney 100.00% 100.00% 63.36% 662.84 1.58%
Camilo Villegas 100.00% 100.00% 88.37% 868.86 1.56%
Robert Allenby 100.00% 100.00% 88.12% 882.82 1.51%
Anthony Kim 100.00% 100.00% 60.79% 606.78 1.47%
Tim Clark 100.00% 100.00% 93.64% 853.42 1.44%
Justin Rose 100.00% 100.00% 99.97% 990.44 1.40%
Jeff Overton 100.00% 100.00% 99.90% 937.46 1.25%
Padraig Harrington 100.00% 98.32% 44.20% 550.42 1.23%
Ben Crane 100.00% 100.00% 97.87% 976.07 1.20%
Luke Donald 100.00% 100.00% 72.26% 687.20 1.16%
Sean O’Hair 100.00% 100.00% 47.51% 518.89 1.14%
Rickie Fowler 100.00% 100.00% 59.34% 531.76 0.78%
Bo Van Pelt 100.00% 100.00% 66.32% 549.25 0.59%
Adam Scott 100.00% 100.00% 42.10% 416.27 0.59%
Kevin Na 100.00% 98.96% 26.47% 290.54 0.54%
Ian Poulter 100.00% 86.95% 17.90% 207.30 0.40%
Kenny Perry 100.00% 54.95% 12.09% 157.40 0.40%
J.B. Holmes 100.00% 100.00% 36.99% 325.42 0.38%
Brian Gay 100.00% 94.09% 21.60% 231.59 0.36%
Geoff Ogilvy 100.00% 91.16% 15.99% 197.75 0.33%
Scott Verplank 100.00% 96.97% 14.54% 136.78 0.31%
Kevin Streelman 98.68% 63.31% 21.64% 277.12 0.29%
Lucas Glover 100.00% 66.55% 11.11% 137.09 0.28%
Michael Sim 100.00% 69.37% 13.84% 165.35 0.24%
Ryan Moore 100.00% 100.00% 13.74% 157.00 0.23%
Stewart Cink 100.00% 97.89% 28.21% 295.30 0.21%
Bill Haas 100.00% 100.00% 36.64% 284.13 0.19%
Bryce Molder 100.00% 96.52% 21.02% 210.43 0.19%
D.J. Trahan 100.00% 69.25% 11.26% 117.83 0.19%
Charley Hoffman 100.00% 56.74% 10.64% 129.15 0.19%
Angel Cabrera 100.00% 63.89% 12.18% 140.72 0.17%
Vaughn Taylor 100.00% 99.98% 33.75% 352.11 0.16%
Y.E. Yang 100.00% 80.63% 11.16% 122.17 0.14%
Stephen Ames 100.00% 53.33% 8.54% 98.72 0.14%
Steve Marino 100.00% 41.58% 6.06% 71.64 0.12%
John Senden 99.34% 66.79% 17.95% 201.53 0.12%
David Toms 100.00% 70.65% 9.62% 101.92 0.10%
K.J. Choi 100.00% 100.00% 14.26% 136.40 0.09%
Rory Sabbatini 100.00% 53.31% 6.79% 75.46 0.09%
Chad Campbell 100.00% 45.18% 5.67% 59.18 0.09%
Tim Petrovic 100.00% 63.18% 11.97% 136.16 0.09%
Brandt Snedeker 100.00% 85.83% 7.48% 77.92 0.07%
Justin Leonard 100.00% 52.41% 6.65% 76.77 0.07%
Pat Perez 100.00% 52.25% 6.72% 65.56 0.07%
Davis Love III 87.37% 34.56% 5.80% 62.48 0.07%
Brendon de Jonge 100.00% 100.00% 10.85% 80.93 0.05%
Marc Leishman 100.00% 88.63% 9.44% 86.09 0.05%
Heath Slocum 100.00% 95.03% 13.55% 124.19 0.05%
Charlie Wi 100.00% 88.86% 11.43% 103.49 0.05%
Matt Jones 100.00% 53.90% 4.50% 43.12 0.05%
Paul Goydos 100.00% 19.58% 3.22% 40.32 0.05%
Webb Simpson 98.02% 47.44% 8.52% 93.86 0.05%
Ryan Palmer 100.00% 100.00% 29.56% 217.15 0.03%
Fredrik Jacobson 100.00% 94.11% 6.60% 63.77 0.03%
Charles Howell III 100.00% 63.22% 4.42% 43.58 0.03%
Jason Dufner 100.00% 28.07% 2.96% 33.64 0.03%
J.J. Henry 100.00% 53.22% 3.95% 33.66 0.03%
Tom Gillis 100.00% 15.84% 2.04% 23.48 0.03%
D.A. Points 100.00% 42.67% 5.67% 57.28 0.03%
Jonathan Byrd 81.24% 27.96% 3.92% 38.51 0.03%
Ricky Barnes 100.00% 100.00% 7.28% 58.54 0.02%
Jason Bohn 100.00% 100.00% 8.59% 77.32 0.02%
Spencer Levin 100.00% 62.44% 3.17% 29.09 0.02%
John Rollins 100.00% 24.46% 2.08% 22.46 0.02%
Vijay Singh 100.00% 28.14% 3.93% 42.90 0.02%
Steve Elkington 100.00% 14.35% 1.63% 17.47 0.02%
Martin Laird 98.89% 46.88% 9.16% 100.05 0.02%
Josh Teater 97.14% 31.65% 3.40% 36.02 0.02%
Blake Adams 87.66% 7.26% 1.33% 15.03 0.02%
Aaron Baddeley 77.39% 16.25% 1.54% 15.01 0.02%
Carl Pettersson 100.00% 100.00% 16.01% 102.17 0.00%
Stuart Appleby 100.00% 100.00% 8.77% 55.67 0.00%
Brian Davis 100.00% 89.54% 4.26% 33.28 0.00%
Shaun Micheel 100.00% 16.09% 1.33% 12.18 0.00%
Greg Chalmers 100.00% 37.35% 1.91% 16.68 0.00%
Jimmy Walker 100.00% 22.00% 1.99% 22.89 0.00%
Kris Blanks 100.00% 7.55% 0.61% 6.42 0.00%
Alex Prugh 100.00% 4.99% 0.47% 3.88 0.00%
Boo Weekley 100.00% 9.11% 1.42% 14.63 0.00%
Chad Collins 99.83% 26.49% 3.03% 30.41 0.00%
Garrett Willis 98.04% 7.10% 1.52% 15.77 0.00%
Ryuji Imada 93.50% 38.06% 6.43% 63.94 0.00%
Chris Couch 90.25% 30.99% 4.75% 51.82 0.00%
Troy Matteson 72.38% 18.38% 2.53% 27.96 0.00%
Chris Riley 62.72% 3.60% 0.40% 4.09 0.00%
J.P. Hayes 59.72% 10.00% 0.68% 6.72 0.00%
John Merrick 58.73% 11.12% 1.09% 11.77 0.00%
Andres Romero 41.35% 8.11% 0.95% 10.84 0.00%
David Duval 41.34% 4.45% 0.50% 3.95 0.00%
Robert Garrigus 38.81% 7.59% 1.13% 14.12 0.00%
Kevin Sutherland 18.31% 1.73% 0.28% 3.54 0.00%
Jerry Kelly 2.70% 0.23% 0.03% 0.22 0.00%
Alex Cejka 0.21% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00 0.00%
Derek Lamely 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00 0.00%

MAKING BANK
Steve Stricker was the big beneficiary of Tiger Woods’ terrible round today. Stricker played competently himself and improved his odds of winning the FED EX CUP by about 3%. That jump was worth about $52,000. Jason Day had an even better picking up around $85,000 in projected money.

TOP 5 TODAY: (Overall NET $)
Jason Day $88,933 ($113,325)
Steve Stricker $52,153 (-$6,467)
Matt Kuchar $51,334 ($77,308)
Robert Allenby $50,801 ($9,643)
Kevin Streelman $37,889 ($35,713)

TOP-5 OVERALL:
Jason Day $113,325
Tiger Woods $96,134
Matt Kuchar $77,308
Ben Crane $52,975
Zach Johnson $47,382

BURNING CASH
In what has become Completely normal for this year, Tiger Woods took a huge step back after seeming to make progress. He was probably about 40 or 50% to win the FED EX CUP when he was -8 today, then bogeyed four more holes and cost himself over $100,000 in projected money.

BOTTOM-5:
Tiger Woods -$157,160 ($96,134)
Phil Mickelson -$56,786 (-$114,229)
Tim Clark -$48,758 (-$52,446)
K.J. Choi -$39,491 (-$24,189)
Camilo Villegas -$37,431 (-$2,948)

OVERALL BOTTOM 5:
Phil Mickelson -$114,229
Anthony Kim -$56,515
Tim Clark -$52,446
Bo Van Pelt -$36,852
J.B. Holmes -$29,347

It would really be hilarious if people treated Phil as poorly as they do Tiger when he plays like crap, but it makes me happy to see Phil playing so poorly.

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FED EX CUP PROJECTED STANDING AFTER BARCLAYS FIRST ROUND

Updated FED EX Cup Projections after Round 1 at Barclays. (Sorry for Delay):

PLAYER Adv to DB Adv to BMW Adv to TC Average Points 1 avg rank
Tiger Woods 99.52% 97.00% 85.24% 2,293.33 27.25% 11.6
Steve Stricker 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 2,080.16 13.60% 6.9
Jim Furyk 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 1,591.16 8.08% 10.1
Phil Mickelson 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 1,555.40 6.42% 10.4
Ernie Els 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 1,543.82 4.14% 9.6
Hunter Mahan 100.00% 100.00% 99.84% 1,243.55 3.02% 13.0
Matt Kuchar 100.00% 100.00% 99.72% 1,281.75 2.84% 12.7
Paul Casey 100.00% 100.00% 68.91% 881.31 2.44% 22.0
Camilo Villegas 100.00% 100.00% 92.64% 1,059.19 2.30% 16.8
Dustin Johnson 100.00% 100.00% 93.20% 1,000.95 2.06% 17.1
Zach Johnson 100.00% 100.00% 87.88% 966.45 1.92% 18.2
Rory McIlroy 100.00% 100.00% 83.54% 924.68 1.84% 19.2
Jeff Overton 100.00% 100.00% 99.70% 1,004.82 1.58% 16.0
Anthony Kim 100.00% 100.00% 70.89% 717.68 1.54% 23.2
Tim Clark 100.00% 100.00% 97.44% 1,009.87 1.46% 16.1
Retief Goosen 100.00% 100.00% 67.39% 741.85 1.42% 23.5
Nick Watney 100.00% 100.00% 59.99% 663.35 1.36% 25.6
Justin Rose 100.00% 100.00% 99.76% 939.50 1.26% 17.0
Bubba Watson 100.00% 100.00% 98.42% 936.72 1.26% 17.2
Ben Crane 100.00% 100.00% 94.94% 882.02 1.10% 18.4
Robert Allenby 100.00% 100.00% 67.87% 663.17 1.02% 23.8
Bo Van Pelt 100.00% 100.00% 81.94% 734.91 0.94% 21.7
Sean O’Hair 100.00% 100.00% 41.65% 446.45 0.84% 32.3
Luke Donald 100.00% 100.00% 71.61% 696.24 0.82% 23.0
Padraig Harrington 100.00% 91.30% 27.35% 318.67 0.76% 41.4
Rickie Fowler 100.00% 100.00% 49.21% 454.58 0.62% 29.6
Geoff Ogilvy 100.00% 99.06% 29.81% 328.04 0.62% 38.3
J.B. Holmes 100.00% 100.00% 51.05% 453.65 0.60% 29.0
Ian Poulter 100.00% 86.28% 21.56% 265.75 0.60% 46.3
Jason Day 100.00% 100.00% 51.71% 499.78 0.54% 28.9
Adam Scott 100.00% 100.00% 37.59% 375.34 0.48% 34.2
Lucas Glover 100.00% 82.86% 18.14% 216.67 0.42% 48.5
Brian Gay 100.00% 93.64% 23.56% 267.95 0.42% 43.7
Bill Haas 100.00% 100.00% 42.17% 343.97 0.36% 32.2
Kenny Perry 100.00% 46.45% 10.28% 133.16 0.36% 66.6
Brandt Snedeker 100.00% 99.50% 25.31% 257.37 0.30% 40.2
Kevin Na 100.00% 95.70% 20.18% 225.96 0.30% 44.7
Scott Verplank 100.00% 98.98% 29.29% 284.67 0.30% 38.2
David Toms 100.00% 86.76% 14.84% 163.46 0.30% 48.2
Ryan Palmer 100.00% 100.00% 39.25% 335.83 0.20% 33.1
Ryan Moore 100.00% 100.00% 16.00% 169.02 0.20% 45.6
K.J. Choi 100.00% 100.00% 39.97% 368.75 0.18% 32.8
Michael Sim 100.00% 60.59% 10.78% 126.94 0.18% 61.3
Davis Love III 91.34% 53.43% 12.54% 145.02 0.18% 64.6
Vijay Singh 100.00% 68.19% 10.94% 118.33 0.16% 58.0
Charley Hoffman 100.00% 61.37% 13.80% 160.73 0.16% 60.0
Stewart Cink 100.00% 90.88% 15.66% 148.77 0.14% 48.1
Bryce Molder 100.00% 79.04% 9.52% 95.15 0.12% 54.2
Rory Sabbatini 100.00% 69.07% 11.78% 140.06 0.12% 58.3
D.J. Trahan 100.00% 65.79% 10.98% 120.46 0.12% 59.9
Pat Perez 99.98% 65.99% 11.36% 123.55 0.12% 59.0
Jason Bohn 100.00% 100.00% 10.46% 94.85 0.10% 47.0
Chad Campbell 100.00% 31.31% 3.40% 40.02 0.10% 75.7
J.J. Henry 100.00% 63.87% 6.46% 63.96 0.08% 62.4
Justin Leonard 100.00% 47.01% 6.46% 72.25 0.08% 67.6
Angel Cabrera 99.94% 61.57% 12.82% 140.83 0.08% 59.8
John Senden 90.82% 49.05% 8.30% 94.49 0.08% 67.8
Ben Curtis 42.77% 16.60% 2.72% 35.06 0.08% 96.3
Vaughn Taylor 100.00% 99.74% 21.56% 205.50 0.06% 42.0
Heath Slocum 100.00% 90.30% 12.98% 120.25 0.06% 50.0
Charlie Wi 100.00% 80.48% 8.66% 84.55 0.06% 55.0
Steve Marino 100.00% 73.19% 13.36% 144.27 0.06% 55.1
Paul Goydos 100.00% 21.80% 3.16% 39.72 0.06% 79.9
Stephen Ames 100.00% 33.81% 5.10% 57.95 0.06% 73.9
Fredrik Jacobson 100.00% 98.12% 8.96% 85.10 0.04% 50.6
Charles Howell III 100.00% 80.22% 6.42% 57.58 0.04% 55.4
Marc Leishman 100.00% 78.10% 6.92% 71.08 0.04% 56.9
Jason Dufner 100.00% 36.79% 3.70% 41.07 0.04% 72.8
Tim Petrovic 99.98% 46.41% 6.38% 68.73 0.04% 68.8
Chad Collins 97.80% 39.61% 5.92% 63.19 0.04% 71.9
Carl Pettersson 100.00% 100.00% 26.53% 162.78 0.02% 36.1
Brendon de Jonge 100.00% 100.00% 16.06% 114.30 0.02% 40.9
Stuart Appleby 100.00% 100.00% 6.88% 44.27 0.02% 47.2
Jimmy Walker 100.00% 33.27% 3.64% 37.21 0.02% 75.4
D.A. Points 99.98% 32.47% 4.06% 43.13 0.02% 75.3
Blake Adams 85.42% 9.04% 1.40% 15.76 0.02% 89.2
Chris Riley 94.56% 24.34% 1.56% 15.27 0.02% 80.7
Kevin Sutherland 69.03% 18.16% 2.20% 22.89 0.02% 85.1
Aaron Baddeley 34.85% 9.78% 0.66% 8.20 0.02% 94.8
Kevin Streelman 31.93% 10.28% 1.18% 12.80 0.02% 97.4
Dean Wilson 32.15% 6.48% 0.50% 5.55 0.02% 102.4
Troy Matteson 35.11% 8.98% 0.94% 10.50 0.02% 101.4
Jonathan Byrd 78.52% 33.67% 6.06% 61.32 0.02% 78.3
Kevin Stadler 8.14% 1.74% 0.24% 3.54 0.02% 116.5
Ricky Barnes 100.00% 100.00% 9.74% 79.02 0.00% 47.2
Brian Davis 100.00% 78.42% 3.08% 28.20 0.00% 60.1
Y.E. Yang 100.00% 51.63% 5.34% 57.42 0.00% 65.6
Matt Jones 100.00% 43.39% 4.00% 44.31 0.00% 69.9
Spencer Levin 100.00% 41.97% 1.54% 13.27 0.00% 71.1
John Rollins 100.00% 27.83% 1.82% 19.67 0.00% 76.2
Shaun Micheel 100.00% 18.50% 1.56% 14.82 0.00% 81.4
Steve Elkington 100.00% 18.60% 1.38% 12.71 0.00% 81.5
Greg Chalmers 100.00% 36.59% 2.08% 20.35 0.00% 74.4
Kris Blanks 100.00% 9.06% 0.64% 6.34 0.00% 87.9
Tom Gillis 100.00% 38.31% 3.28% 34.87 0.00% 72.9
Alex Prugh 99.76% 15.74% 0.76% 5.61 0.00% 84.6
Boo Weekley 98.90% 12.44% 1.44% 17.05 0.00% 85.5
Garrett Willis 96.22% 14.02% 1.16% 11.68 0.00% 85.8
Josh Teater 92.32% 28.25% 3.02% 29.86 0.00% 78.5
Jerry Kelly 41.13% 6.68% 1.00% 8.51 0.00% 94.5
Alex Cejka 33.05% 5.88% 0.60% 5.40 0.00% 96.3
Derek Lamely 18.40% 2.54% 0.28% 3.57 0.00% 99.8
Webb Simpson 32.49% 8.56% 0.64% 6.87 0.00% 95.9
Martin Laird 66.25% 16.98% 1.62% 16.89 0.00% 87.0
Matt Bettencourt 9.00% 1.46% 0.12% 0.92 0.00% 103.8
Chris Couch 81.28% 33.63% 5.98% 61.04 0.00% 76.7
Jeff Maggert 0.58% 0.12% 0.00% 0.00 0.00% 107.4
Sergio Garcia 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00 0.00% 0.0
Briny Baird 42.39% 11.52% 0.84% 6.98 0.00% 95.2
Joe Ogilvie 0.12% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00 0.00% 109.7
John Merrick 15.74% 3.34% 0.30% 2.72 0.00% 105.8
Bill Lunde 7.54% 1.20% 0.10% 0.73 0.00% 108.7
Ryuji Imada 25.75% 5.90% 0.54% 5.84 0.00% 102.9
J.P. Hayes 20.36% 3.76% 0.26% 3.34 0.00% 106.3
Corey Pavin 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00 0.00% 0.0
Bob Estes 11.10% 2.32% 0.18% 2.14 0.00% 110.4
Cameron Beckman 28.93% 5.94% 0.56% 6.37 0.00% 104.3
Andres Romero 12.56% 2.26% 0.28% 2.42 0.00% 112.0
Michael Letzig 19.34% 3.82% 0.36% 3.30 0.00% 109.6
Nathan Green 17.16% 3.96% 0.62% 6.97 0.00% 110.7
David Duval 33.03% 5.44% 0.58% 5.57 0.00% 105.2
Woody Austin 8.92% 2.20% 0.22% 2.01 0.00% 115.8
Graham Delaet 5.02% 0.58% 0.04% 0.23 0.00% 119.0
Robert Garrigus 37.85% 10.34% 1.82% 19.88 0.00% 102.6

MAKING BANK INDEX:
I ran a regression using the players average rank in the simulation and the FED EX CUP bonus pool to see who made and who lost money with yesterdays round:

MAKING BANK:
Tiger Woods: Woods jumped from an average rank of around 28 to down near 11. That translates into a whopping $253,294 in FED EX CUP bonus money. Easily the biggest mover of the Day.

Camilo Villegas $34,483
Ben Crane $29,982
Matt Kuchar $25,974
Adam Scott $25,520
Jason Day $24,392
Vaughn Taylor $24,126
Ryan Palmer $23,547

BURNING CASH
Steve Stricker: Stricker had a decent round yesterday, but when you consider that Tiger Woods played so well, it really hurt everyone else’s chance of picking up Bonus money. At -$58,620, Steve was the biggest loser yesterday.

Phil Mickelson -$57,443
Robert Allenby -$41,157
Anthony Kim -$37,401
Bubba Watson -$21,086
Ernie Els -$18,978
Dustin Johnson -$16,313

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UPDATED FED EX CUP PROJECTIONS WITH COMMENTARY

Can’t believe Jim Furyk was disqualified from the first event. What a joke that is.

PLAYER Adv to DB Adv to BMW Adv to TC Average Points
Steve Stricker 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 2,180.55
Phil Mickelson 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 1,705.33
Tiger Woods 89.12% 83.48% 66.37% 1,677.78
Ernie Els 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 1,592.25
Jim Furyk 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 1,574.32
Hunter Mahan 100.00% 100.00% 99.88% 1,292.06
Matt Kuchar 100.00% 100.00% 99.44% 1,205.90
Dustin Johnson 100.00% 100.00% 94.64% 1,076.06
Tim Clark 100.00% 100.00% 97.88% 1,036.42
Bubba Watson 100.00% 100.00% 99.18% 1,019.36
Justin Rose 100.00% 100.00% 99.88% 990.31
Jeff Overton 100.00% 100.00% 99.42% 947.51
Zach Johnson 100.00% 100.00% 85.70% 923.36
Camilo Villegas 100.00% 100.00% 86.30% 915.42
Anthony Kim 100.00% 100.00% 81.88% 910.06
Robert Allenby 100.00% 100.00% 82.70% 871.32
Paul Casey 100.00% 100.00% 66.89% 861.58
Rory McIlroy 100.00% 100.00% 77.04% 848.42
Retief Goosen 100.00% 100.00% 70.41% 798.18
Ben Crane 100.00% 100.00% 88.36% 761.14
Bo Van Pelt 100.00% 100.00% 82.80% 746.58
Luke Donald 100.00% 100.00% 74.31% 742.22
Nick Watney 100.00% 100.00% 58.19% 659.06
J.B. Holmes 100.00% 100.00% 58.39% 541.33
Rickie Fowler 100.00% 100.00% 54.15% 503.08
Sean O’Hair 100.00% 99.96% 40.95% 439.81
Geoff Ogilvy 100.00% 98.18% 32.03% 361.36
Jason Day 100.00% 100.00% 39.33% 354.40
Padraig Harrington 100.00% 85.90% 27.35% 335.43
Kevin Na 100.00% 96.02% 27.63% 324.29
Bill Haas 100.00% 100.00% 37.53% 308.52
Lucas Glover 100.00% 87.44% 25.39% 296.41
K.J. Choi 100.00% 100.00% 31.35% 290.99
Ryan Moore 100.00% 100.00% 27.09% 287.43
Ian Poulter 100.00% 81.80% 21.86% 277.68
David Toms 100.00% 91.24% 22.48% 222.42
Kenny Perry 100.00% 58.43% 16.32% 208.93
Carl Pettersson 100.00% 100.00% 30.95% 202.35
Adam Scott 100.00% 100.00% 21.36% 198.39
Ryan Palmer 100.00% 100.00% 22.50% 178.26
Brendon de Jonge 100.00% 100.00% 24.02% 171.88
Scott Verplank 100.00% 93.26% 17.98% 170.90
Steve Marino 100.00% 71.35% 15.14% 169.87
Jason Bohn 100.00% 100.00% 18.30% 160.12
Bryce Molder 100.00% 84.48% 15.52% 156.83
Brandt Snedeker 100.00% 96.34% 15.94% 154.61
Brian Gay 100.00% 74.91% 12.76% 146.56
Fredrik Jacobson 100.00% 98.72% 15.16% 133.29
Ricky Barnes 100.00% 100.00% 16.60% 132.66
Charley Hoffman 99.76% 45.09% 10.02% 113.73
Michael Sim 100.00% 51.25% 10.06% 113.25
Stephen Ames 99.88% 50.17% 9.82% 112.64
Vijay Singh 100.00% 59.37% 10.42% 112.29
Y.E. Yang 100.00% 65.53% 9.82% 105.67
Justin Leonard 100.00% 52.87% 9.16% 102.87
Angel Cabrera 95.28% 45.79% 8.90% 99.56
Rory Sabbatini 100.00% 52.95% 8.46% 97.35
Charles Howell III 100.00% 85.32% 11.32% 96.58
Paul Goydos 100.00% 39.45% 7.38% 92.50
Charlie Wi 100.00% 69.91% 8.30% 83.74
Stewart Cink 100.00% 73.07% 8.40% 83.07
Jason Dufner 100.00% 54.91% 7.46% 74.22
Pat Perez 98.70% 41.53% 6.78% 71.31
Chad Campbell 99.94% 40.93% 6.64% 71.06
Vaughn Taylor 100.00% 97.14% 7.82% 68.10
Heath Slocum 100.00% 72.67% 7.10% 67.71
D.J. Trahan 100.00% 44.23% 5.72% 65.30
Davis Love III 56.67% 28.29% 5.66% 65.23
Marc Leishman 100.00% 72.01% 6.98% 62.05
Matt Jones 100.00% 49.09% 5.76% 60.88
Kevin Sutherland 72.09% 35.05% 5.60% 59.75
Tom Gillis 99.96% 40.47% 5.06% 56.74
D.A. Points 99.56% 31.09% 4.96% 55.88
Stuart Appleby 100.00% 100.00% 7.84% 52.34
Ben Curtis 46.09% 20.64% 4.62% 50.87
Blake Adams 81.52% 24.94% 4.12% 45.62
John Rollins 100.00% 46.89% 4.62% 44.72
Tim Petrovic 98.02% 29.75% 4.18% 44.37
Boo Weekley 95.36% 29.67% 4.06% 42.73
J.J. Henry 100.00% 46.13% 4.50% 41.87
Steve Elkington 100.00% 37.41% 4.04% 40.65
Brian Davis 100.00% 79.16% 4.42% 38.34
Chad Collins 76.50% 23.42% 3.62% 37.19
John Senden 53.69% 23.60% 3.36% 36.80
Shaun Micheel 100.00% 37.41% 3.28% 33.45
Jerry Kelly 57.55% 21.04% 2.82% 30.48
Chris Couch 41.59% 15.08% 2.56% 29.67
Kevin Streelman 42.51% 16.46% 2.80% 29.19
Bob Estes 42.15% 15.20% 2.38% 27.42
Alex Cejka 42.75% 13.46% 2.00% 25.24
Garrett Willis 85.22% 18.90% 2.38% 25.04
Spencer Levin 100.00% 52.15% 2.80% 24.28
Kevin Stadler 26.01% 8.66% 2.12% 23.59
Jimmy Walker 100.00% 20.02% 2.16% 22.66
Jonathan Byrd 41.45% 14.78% 2.10% 22.41
Jeff Maggert 29.95% 8.70% 1.66% 20.71
Derek Lamely 39.75% 11.88% 1.96% 19.59
Aaron Baddeley 43.77% 15.28% 1.98% 19.56
Chris Riley 78.00% 19.72% 1.76% 18.64
Josh Teater 59.01% 14.72% 1.62% 18.57
Greg Chalmers 100.00% 31.81% 2.12% 18.37
Woody Austin 36.15% 12.66% 1.80% 17.62
Kris Blanks 100.00% 19.18% 1.80% 17.46
Troy Matteson 36.37% 10.62% 1.62% 17.23
Andres Romero 26.01% 7.16% 1.40% 16.99
Nathan Green 24.90% 7.54% 1.34% 15.92
Alex Prugh 94.14% 17.46% 1.48% 15.29
Robert Garrigus 23.10% 6.54% 1.16% 15.25
Webb Simpson 45.15% 14.82% 1.58% 15.21
Matt Bettencourt 33.27% 9.22% 1.42% 15.08
Michael Letzig 30.71% 8.46% 1.30% 14.17
John Merrick 35.23% 10.72% 1.32% 14.09
Ryuji Imada 36.01% 10.86% 1.48% 13.21
Briny Baird 42.87% 14.76% 1.48% 12.82
Martin Laird 39.27% 10.74% 1.20% 11.64
Dean Wilson 31.99% 8.52% 1.16% 11.29
J.P. Hayes 30.25% 7.66% 0.84% 10.28
Joe Ogilvie 33.57% 8.48% 0.94% 9.35
Cameron Beckman 28.55% 7.22% 0.94% 8.54
Bill Lunde 29.59% 6.66% 0.86% 7.78
Graham Delaet 20.02% 4.08% 0.46% 4.05
David Duval 12.98% 1.62% 0.28% 2.78

ODDS AND AVERAGE RANK

Average Rank TO WIN SECOND THIRD avg rank
Tiger Woods 18.76% 9.02% 6.34% 28.2
Steve Stricker 16.44% 11.48% 8.72% 6.4
Phil Mickelson 7.86% 7.26% 5.98% 9.3
Jim Furyk 7.62% 6.00% 4.22% 10.2
Ernie Els 4.46% 4.26% 4.16% 9.3
Hunter Mahan 3.72% 3.76% 3.36% 12.6
Matt Kuchar 2.78% 3.18% 2.86% 13.6
Dustin Johnson 2.50% 3.78% 3.12% 16.2
Paul Casey 2.50% 3.02% 3.82% 22.9
Camilo Villegas 2.20% 2.46% 2.24% 19.0
Tim Clark 2.08% 2.42% 1.92% 15.9
Rory McIlroy 2.02% 2.54% 2.50% 20.9
Robert Allenby 1.92% 2.40% 2.10% 19.9
Anthony Kim 1.88% 3.04% 3.04% 19.7
Nick Watney 1.86% 2.00% 2.20% 26.3
Zach Johnson 1.84% 2.52% 2.84% 18.9
Retief Goosen 1.78% 2.88% 2.54% 22.7
Bubba Watson 1.72% 2.22% 2.34% 16.0
Justin Rose 1.48% 1.92% 1.58% 16.1
Luke Donald 1.36% 1.74% 1.40% 22.5
Jeff Overton 1.32% 1.90% 1.58% 16.9
Bo Van Pelt 1.04% 1.54% 1.64% 21.4
Rickie Fowler 0.76% 1.26% 1.56% 28.2
J.B. Holmes 0.72% 1.40% 1.56% 27.2
Ian Poulter 0.70% 0.64% 1.26% 47.1
Ben Crane 0.68% 1.46% 1.28% 20.6
Padraig Harrington 0.64% 0.82% 1.32% 43.3
Sean O’Hair 0.62% 1.20% 1.28% 33.1
Kevin Na 0.60% 0.64% 1.20% 40.5
Geoff Ogilvy 0.56% 0.86% 1.32% 37.7
Lucas Glover 0.56% 0.80% 0.94% 43.5
Kenny Perry 0.54% 0.36% 0.58% 59.8
Steve Marino 0.36% 0.34% 0.40% 55.0
Jason Day 0.34% 0.60% 1.10% 33.6
Adam Scott 0.34% 0.26% 0.52% 41.4
Ryan Moore 0.32% 0.78% 1.16% 39.8
David Toms 0.32% 0.28% 0.66% 43.4
K.J. Choi 0.26% 0.54% 0.84% 36.5
Bill Haas 0.18% 0.64% 0.56% 33.8
Brandt Snedeker 0.18% 0.22% 0.52% 46.6
Scott Verplank 0.18% 0.20% 0.56% 45.3
Bryce Molder 0.18% 0.22% 0.36% 49.6
Y.E. Yang 0.18% 0.16% 0.32% 59.4
Stephen Ames 0.18% 0.22% 0.24% 65.7
Fredrik Jacobson 0.16% 0.12% 0.34% 45.6
Justin Leonard 0.16% 0.10% 0.30% 64.7
Charley Hoffman 0.16% 0.22% 0.26% 68.1
Angel Cabrera 0.16% 0.12% 0.32% 68.1
Brian Gay 0.14% 0.08% 0.36% 54.3
Charlie Wi 0.14% 0.10% 0.22% 58.5
Paul Goydos 0.14% 0.10% 0.36% 71.7
Vijay Singh 0.14% 0.16% 0.36% 61.7
Rory Sabbatini 0.12% 0.10% 0.26% 65.3
Jason Bohn 0.10% 0.22% 0.52% 42.6
Matt Jones 0.10% 0.04% 0.10% 67.3
Ryan Palmer 0.08% 0.32% 0.44% 39.2
Jason Dufner 0.08% 0.08% 0.18% 64.8
Carl Pettersson 0.06% 0.16% 0.18% 34.9
Brendon de Jonge 0.06% 0.14% 0.24% 38.2
Chad Campbell 0.06% 0.06% 0.16% 71.2
Tim Petrovic 0.06% 0.04% 0.04% 77.2
Davis Love III 0.06% 0.02% 0.16% 83.2
Ricky Barnes 0.04% 0.12% 0.26% 43.3
Charles Howell III 0.04% 0.12% 0.24% 50.9
Heath Slocum 0.04% 0.04% 0.20% 57.9
Shaun Micheel 0.04% 0.02% 0.12% 73.9
Michael Sim 0.04% 0.16% 0.40% 65.3
Tom Gillis 0.04% 0.00% 0.18% 71.6
Pat Perez 0.04% 0.06% 0.10% 70.6
Boo Weekley 0.04% 0.06% 0.06% 77.7
Kevin Sutherland 0.04% 0.06% 0.12% 76.9
Aaron Baddeley 0.04% 0.00% 0.04% 91.8
Chris Couch 0.04% 0.06% 0.06% 92.9
Ben Curtis 0.04% 0.02% 0.12% 93.4
Woody Austin 0.04% 0.00% 0.02% 101.7
Marc Leishman 0.02% 0.06% 0.14% 58.1
Stewart Cink 0.02% 0.16% 0.22% 56.7
John Rollins 0.02% 0.06% 0.14% 68.8
J.J. Henry 0.02% 0.10% 0.06% 69.7
D.J. Trahan 0.02% 0.16% 0.22% 70.2
Steve Elkington 0.02% 0.04% 0.14% 73.3
Greg Chalmers 0.02% 0.00% 0.02% 76.3
D.A. Points 0.02% 0.10% 0.20% 76.5
Jerry Kelly 0.02% 0.00% 0.10% 86.2
Alex Cejka 0.02% 0.02% 0.08% 91.9
Matt Bettencourt 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 97.4
Jeff Maggert 0.02% 0.04% 0.06% 99.3
Joe Ogilvie 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 99.8
J.P. Hayes 0.02% 0.00% 0.02% 102.6
Bob Estes 0.02% 0.04% 0.12% 96.2
Michael Letzig 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 104.4
Nathan Green 0.02% 0.00% 0.08% 107.1
Kevin Stadler 0.02% 0.00% 0.06% 106.9
Stuart Appleby 0.00% 0.06% 0.10% 47.6
Vaughn Taylor 0.00% 0.00% 0.18% 52.6
Brian Davis 0.00% 0.02% 0.06% 58.0
Spencer Levin 0.00% 0.00% 0.06% 67.7
Jimmy Walker 0.00% 0.04% 0.02% 82.6
Kris Blanks 0.00% 0.02% 0.00% 83.0
Alex Prugh 0.00% 0.00% 0.04% 84.8
Garrett Willis 0.00% 0.00% 0.06% 84.2
Blake Adams 0.00% 0.02% 0.12% 81.2
Chad Collins 0.00% 0.04% 0.08% 82.7
Chris Riley 0.00% 0.04% 0.04% 84.6
Josh Teater 0.00% 0.00% 0.10% 89.2
Derek Lamely 0.00% 0.04% 0.00% 93.3
Webb Simpson 0.00% 0.00% 0.04% 91.8
Martin Laird 0.00% 0.02% 0.02% 95.1
John Senden 0.00% 0.02% 0.14% 87.3
Kevin Streelman 0.00% 0.02% 0.06% 93.4
Briny Baird 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 94.9
John Merrick 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 99.0
Bill Lunde 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 102.0
Ryuji Imada 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 99.0
Dean Wilson 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 101.9
Cameron Beckman 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 104.2
Troy Matteson 0.00% 0.00% 0.06% 100.6
Andres Romero 0.00% 0.04% 0.04% 105.7
Jonathan Byrd 0.00% 0.02% 0.04% 97.9
David Duval 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 114.1
Graham Delaet 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 111.5
Robert Garrigus 0.00% 0.00% 0.06% 110.1

COMMENTARY
Winning a Tournament: Winning either the BMW, Deutsche Bank or Barclays has to be one of the best deals on the PGA Tour. You basically guarantee a spot in the final five (One win is worth more than any player has in Fed Ex points so far) with a chance to win at East Lake. I’m not sure how I feel about this (Clearly biased view of the best player, but I don’t think the goal of the Fed Ex was ever to identify the best player) but winning is truly huge. If someone (Heath Slocum) can win a tournament, that is going to lead to a big payday.

FED EX CONTENDERS
Tiger Woods: It’s kind of surprising to see Tiger as favored to win this event based on the last two years given how far back he is. That’s an indication of how important winning a tournament, which Tiger under this ranking, is relatively likely to do.

As far as the ranking goes it’s definitely fair if Tiger has been working 100% on his game and cares about being at the Barclays. However, I have no idea if that is the case so I tend to say it’s closer to the 12-1 that is being offered at the sports books.

Steve Stricker: It’s possible to have some reservations about Stricker in majors, but he’s proved he can win big events and in set-ups like the ones that he should face in the playoffs, there is no one other than Tiger who has been better over the past few years. If Tiger is anywhere below the estimation I used for my rankings, Stricker is the absolute favorite to win this.

Jim Furyk: I was going to throw Furyk in as the standard option, but then he went and got DQed from this week’s event. Doesn’t hurt him too much overall as he still advanced in all 5001 simulations to the Tour Championship. On Average, he lost around 300 points at the Tour Championship and is between 2 and 3% less likely to win.

FED EX PRETENDERS
Rory McIlroy: Don’t get me wrong Rory is a definite borderline top-ten player with not much difference between the top handful and Rory. But, I just don’t see why everyone is going nuts over Rory. Sure, he looks great, but his performance based on what we’ve seen so far projects a lot closer to Phil Mickelson than Tiger Woods. In comparison to Tiger at this age, Rory is nowhere close in relation to the field, though I guess it could be argued the field is deeper nowadays. Anyway, Rory is good, but he’s never been better than Martin Kaymer in his career (Kaymer is older) and Martin isn’t getting the amount of respect Rory does despite a major win.

Phil Mickelson
: I’d love to sit here and tell you that Phil should be rated higher based on his “family isssues” in 2009, but that would ignore the fact that his 2010 is basically right on the rating. Phil is one of the best golfers of this era for sure, but he also has to be considered the most fortunate. I have seen no difference between Furyk, Mickelson, Stricker and Westwood over the past couple years other than possibly at majors (who knows how much meaning that has) so I think Phil’s chances of winning this week or the Fed Ex Cup are completely overrated.

Jeff Overton: Umm, No. Jeff proves that a bunch of top tens outweigh a bunch of mediocre to bad performances. Overall, Jeff is pretty good, but no way in hell is he one of the best 10 players in this event.

I think this is going to be really fun to follow odds-wise from round to round because of how big an impact winning a tournament will have. So, check back after each round for updated Odds to win each week, and the Fed Ex cup.

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2010 FED-EX CUP ODDS AND SIMULATION

Together with XLSSports, I came up with a spreadsheet that simulates the FED EX Cup. Below are the results from 5,000 simulations:

-Didn’t adjust Tiger at all
-There was around a 1.1% chance that the FEC ends in a tie. That’s why all the odds add up to 101.1%. Honestly, I have no idea what would happen in this case.
-Commentary will be up tomorrow.

PLAYER WIN SECOND THIRD WIN ODDS
Tiger Woods 16.82% 9.02% 6.68% 495
Steve Stricker 15.92% 11.80% 7.82% 528
Jim Furyk 10.98% 7.96% 7.26% 811
Phil Mickelson 8.30% 7.56% 6.08% 1105
Ernie Els 4.82% 4.06% 4.22% 1975
Hunter Mahan 3.18% 3.26% 3.14% 3045
Dustin Johnson 2.70% 3.38% 2.76% 3604
Matt Kuchar 2.54% 2.90% 2.78% 3838
Paul Casey 2.52% 3.02% 3.42% 3869
Anthony Kim 2.02% 2.94% 2.86% 4851
Retief Goosen 2.00% 2.24% 2.22% 4901
Zach Johnson 1.92% 2.52% 2.40% 5109
Camilo Villegas 1.88% 2.60% 2.30% 5220
Nick Watney 1.74% 2.16% 2.26% 5648
Bubba Watson 1.64% 1.86% 1.76% 5999
Tim Clark 1.60% 2.44% 2.02% 6151
Robert Allenby 1.54% 2.24% 2.40% 6395
Rory McIlroy 1.48% 2.44% 2.10% 6658
Justin Rose 1.40% 1.92% 1.70% 7044
Jeff Overton 1.22% 1.66% 1.70% 8098
Luke Donald 1.12% 1.76% 2.00% 8830
Sean O’Hair 1.08% 0.80% 1.40% 9161
Bo Van Pelt 1.02% 1.44% 1.48% 9706
J.B. Holmes 0.88% 1.28% 1.40% 11266
Rickie Fowler 0.88% 1.48% 1.56% 11266
Ben Crane 0.86% 1.22% 1.22% 11530
Padraig Harrington 0.70% 0.74% 1.12% 14189
Geoff Ogilvy 0.68% 0.86% 1.24% 14609
Lucas Glover 0.60% 0.64% 1.20% 16570
Kevin Na 0.52% 0.74% 1.26% 19135
Ian Poulter 0.52% 0.44% 1.00% 19135
Ryan Moore 0.50% 0.72% 1.04% 19904
Kenny Perry 0.46% 0.52% 0.72% 21643
Jason Day 0.34% 0.78% 0.72% 29318
K.J. Choi 0.28% 0.46% 0.78% 35621
Bill Haas 0.26% 0.32% 0.72% 38369
David Toms 0.22% 0.42% 0.66% 45364
Adam Scott 0.20% 0.38% 0.66% 49910
Bryce Molder 0.20% 0.26% 0.50% 49910
Rory Sabbatini 0.20% 0.20% 0.34% 49910
Michael Sim 0.18% 0.22% 0.48% 55467
Stephen Ames 0.18% 0.18% 0.22% 55467
Fredrik Jacobson 0.16% 0.16% 0.32% 62413
Brandt Snedeker 0.16% 0.28% 0.50% 62413
Angel Cabrera 0.16% 0.08% 0.46% 62413
Vijay Singh 0.14% 0.18% 0.16% 71343
Charley Hoffman 0.14% 0.18% 0.40% 71343
Ryan Palmer 0.12% 0.20% 0.28% 83250
Brian Gay 0.12% 0.16% 0.32% 83250
Paul Goydos 0.12% 0.16% 0.40% 83250
Justin Leonard 0.12% 0.16% 0.26% 83250
Jason Bohn 0.10% 0.22% 0.36% 99920
Scott Verplank 0.10% 0.26% 0.42% 99920
Steve Marino 0.10% 0.52% 0.66% 99920
Pat Perez 0.08% 0.08% 0.12% 124925
Brendon de Jonge 0.06% 0.26% 0.34% 166600
Charles Howell III 0.06% 0.22% 0.26% 166600
Y.E. Yang 0.06% 0.22% 0.30% 166600
J.J. Henry 0.06% 0.04% 0.08% 166600
Chad Campbell 0.06% 0.16% 0.22% 166600
Boo Weekley 0.06% 0.02% 0.22% 166600
Davis Love III 0.06% 0.06% 0.22% 166600
John Merrick 0.06% 0.00% 0.00% 166600
Ben Curtis 0.06% 0.10% 0.14% 166600
Carl Pettersson 0.04% 0.12% 0.12% 249950
Brian Davis 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 249950
Heath Slocum 0.04% 0.06% 0.08% 249950
Matt Jones 0.04% 0.08% 0.12% 249950
Jason Dufner 0.04% 0.16% 0.28% 249950
D.J. Trahan 0.04% 0.08% 0.20% 249950
Tom Gillis 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 249950
D.A. Points 0.04% 0.06% 0.14% 249950
Tim Petrovic 0.04% 0.02% 0.12% 249950
Chad Collins 0.04% 0.02% 0.04% 249950
Webb Simpson 0.04% 0.00% 0.04% 249950
John Senden 0.04% 0.02% 0.16% 249950
Kevin Streelman 0.04% 0.02% 0.02% 249950
Ricky Barnes 0.02% 0.20% 0.12% 500000
Vaughn Taylor 0.02% 0.10% 0.22% 500000
Marc Leishman 0.02% 0.06% 0.24% 500000
Charlie Wi 0.02% 0.06% 0.18% 500000
John Rollins 0.02% 0.00% 0.10% 500000
Blake Adams 0.02% 0.04% 0.06% 500000
Jerry Kelly 0.02% 0.08% 0.00% 500000
Alex Cejka 0.02% 0.04% 0.04% 500000
Aaron Baddeley 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 500000
Martin Laird 0.02% 0.04% 0.00% 500000
Chris Couch 0.02% 0.00% 0.02% 500000
Jeff Maggert 0.02% 0.00% 0.02% 500000
Briny Baird 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 500000
Ryuji Imada 0.02% 0.04% 0.04% 500000
Bob Estes 0.02% 0.04% 0.12% 500000
Jonathan Byrd 0.02% 0.04% 0.02% 500000
Nathan Green 0.02% 0.00% 0.02% 500000
Kevin Stadler 0.02% 0.04% 0.04% 500000
Stuart Appleby 0.00% 0.02% 0.06% #DIV/0!
Stewart Cink 0.00% 0.08% 0.20% #DIV/0!
Spencer Levin 0.00% 0.02% 0.02% #DIV/0!
Shaun Micheel 0.00% 0.02% 0.10% #DIV/0!
Steve Elkington 0.00% 0.04% 0.02% #DIV/0!
Greg Chalmers 0.00% 0.00% 0.06% #DIV/0!
Jimmy Walker 0.00% 0.02% 0.06% #DIV/0!
Kris Blanks 0.00% 0.02% 0.00% #DIV/0!
Alex Prugh 0.00% 0.02% 0.00% #DIV/0!
Garrett Willis 0.00% 0.04% 0.06% #DIV/0!
Chris Riley 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% #DIV/0!
Josh Teater 0.00% 0.02% 0.08% #DIV/0!
Kevin Sutherland 0.00% 0.08% 0.14% #DIV/0!
Derek Lamely 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% #DIV/0!
Matt Bettencourt 0.00% 0.02% 0.02% #DIV/0!
Sergio Garcia 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% #DIV/0!
Joe Ogilvie 0.00% 0.02% 0.00% #DIV/0!
Bill Lunde 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% #DIV/0!
J.P. Hayes 0.00% 0.02% 0.04% #DIV/0!
Dean Wilson 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% #DIV/0!
Corey Pavin 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% #DIV/0!
Cameron Beckman 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% #DIV/0!
Troy Matteson 0.00% 0.02% 0.02% #DIV/0!
Andres Romero 0.00% 0.02% 0.00% #DIV/0!
Michael Letzig 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% #DIV/0!
David Duval 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% #DIV/0!
Woody Austin 0.00% 0.04% 0.04% #DIV/0!
Graham Delaet 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% #DIV/0!
Robert Garrigus 0.00% 0.00% 0.04% #DIV/0!

ODDS TO ADVANCE TO EACH ROUND
-Note: Average Points =points earned at end of Tour Championship/Iterations.

PLAYER Adv to DB Adv to BMW Adv to TC Average Points
Steve Stricker 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 2,153.55
Jim Furyk 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 1,910.83
Phil Mickelson 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 1,696.49
Tiger Woods 87.68% 81.50% 66.05% 1,626.78
Ernie Els 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 1,602.20
Hunter Mahan 100.00% 100.00% 99.86% 1,269.91
Matt Kuchar 100.00% 100.00% 99.54% 1,182.47
Dustin Johnson 100.00% 100.00% 95.72% 1,093.62
Tim Clark 100.00% 100.00% 98.16% 1,027.37
Bubba Watson 100.00% 100.00% 99.38% 992.62
Justin Rose 100.00% 100.00% 99.94% 977.53
Jeff Overton 100.00% 100.00% 99.52% 934.99
Zach Johnson 100.00% 100.00% 85.12% 918.06
Anthony Kim 100.00% 100.00% 81.62% 904.69
Camilo Villegas 100.00% 100.00% 84.90% 896.76
Robert Allenby 100.00% 100.00% 82.28% 848.05
Paul Casey 100.00% 100.00% 66.19% 841.27
Rory McIlroy 100.00% 100.00% 76.46% 827.87
Retief Goosen 100.00% 100.00% 69.37% 780.05
Ben Crane 100.00% 100.00% 88.96% 756.80
Luke Donald 100.00% 100.00% 74.51% 746.84
Bo Van Pelt 100.00% 100.00% 83.16% 739.17
Nick Watney 100.00% 100.00% 58.35% 669.01
J.B. Holmes 100.00% 100.00% 58.05% 538.75
Rickie Fowler 100.00% 100.00% 54.61% 518.51
Sean O’Hair 100.00% 99.98% 40.83% 436.85
Geoff Ogilvy 100.00% 98.42% 32.33% 365.76
Jason Day 100.00% 100.00% 39.51% 351.50
Padraig Harrington 100.00% 87.22% 27.09% 326.11
Kevin Na 100.00% 96.74% 28.05% 314.92
Bill Haas 100.00% 100.00% 37.07% 302.29
K.J. Choi 100.00% 100.00% 31.41% 289.31
Lucas Glover 100.00% 88.36% 24.82% 285.59
Ryan Moore 100.00% 100.00% 26.71% 283.60
Ian Poulter 100.00% 83.02% 22.08% 257.82
David Toms 100.00% 92.16% 23.00% 231.45
Kenny Perry 100.00% 56.97% 16.66% 216.26
Adam Scott 100.00% 100.00% 22.32% 207.85
Carl Pettersson 100.00% 100.00% 30.37% 184.46
Brendon de Jonge 100.00% 100.00% 25.11% 183.95
Steve Marino 100.00% 70.73% 14.78% 173.36
Ryan Palmer 100.00% 100.00% 22.10% 170.76
Scott Verplank 100.00% 93.42% 18.00% 168.98
Bryce Molder 100.00% 84.08% 16.22% 164.55
Brandt Snedeker 100.00% 97.38% 17.00% 162.42
Jason Bohn 100.00% 100.00% 18.98% 159.23
Fredrik Jacobson 100.00% 99.00% 15.00% 132.19
Brian Gay 100.00% 74.93% 12.78% 131.75
Charley Hoffman 99.92% 45.49% 9.86% 127.04
Ricky Barnes 100.00% 100.00% 16.82% 126.93
Michael Sim 100.00% 50.67% 9.78% 119.77
Vijay Singh 100.00% 60.03% 10.90% 119.62
Stephen Ames 99.94% 51.39% 9.86% 109.58
Angel Cabrera 95.70% 46.11% 8.76% 106.17
Charles Howell III 100.00% 86.40% 11.74% 105.16
Y.E. Yang 100.00% 64.93% 9.84% 103.46
Rory Sabbatini 100.00% 52.61% 8.68% 102.87
Paul Goydos 100.00% 39.09% 7.92% 99.37
Justin Leonard 100.00% 52.07% 8.94% 94.70
Jason Dufner 100.00% 56.25% 7.50% 79.52
Stewart Cink 100.00% 73.27% 8.70% 79.26
Charlie Wi 100.00% 69.29% 8.38% 79.15
D.J. Trahan 100.00% 42.99% 6.34% 72.06
Chad Campbell 100.00% 38.65% 6.32% 69.81
Pat Perez 99.14% 40.71% 6.46% 69.30
Marc Leishman 100.00% 72.07% 7.62% 68.18
Vaughn Taylor 100.00% 97.34% 8.12% 67.92
Davis Love III 54.37% 27.47% 5.66% 61.62
Matt Jones 100.00% 50.45% 5.92% 59.34
Heath Slocum 100.00% 72.63% 6.80% 59.21
Kevin Sutherland 72.39% 34.69% 5.12% 55.71
Stuart Appleby 100.00% 100.00% 7.54% 50.51
Ben Curtis 44.79% 20.06% 4.34% 49.79
D.A. Points 99.76% 30.39% 4.16% 47.15
Tom Gillis 100.00% 41.99% 4.82% 46.67
John Rollins 100.00% 47.81% 4.64% 46.26
Boo Weekley 96.26% 28.39% 4.04% 45.60
J.J. Henry 100.00% 46.35% 4.56% 42.83
Blake Adams 83.16% 25.27% 3.84% 41.99
John Senden 54.95% 25.45% 3.66% 38.38
Brian Davis 100.00% 81.04% 4.70% 38.29
Tim Petrovic 98.68% 30.37% 3.78% 38.22
Steve Elkington 100.00% 37.53% 3.78% 37.14
Chad Collins 79.40% 23.78% 3.18% 33.80
Shaun Micheel 100.00% 37.05% 3.62% 33.42
Kevin Streelman 42.77% 16.56% 2.42% 27.84
Jonathan Byrd 40.09% 14.50% 2.44% 27.50
Kevin Stadler 26.37% 8.54% 2.04% 26.54
Jerry Kelly 55.65% 19.34% 2.80% 26.34
Jimmy Walker 100.00% 21.06% 2.24% 25.56
Spencer Levin 100.00% 52.59% 2.94% 25.44
Alex Cejka 44.49% 13.48% 2.24% 24.54
Chris Couch 41.17% 13.96% 2.40% 24.34
Aaron Baddeley 43.89% 15.14% 1.96% 22.74
Bob Estes 41.63% 14.98% 2.18% 22.60
Webb Simpson 44.41% 15.34% 1.98% 22.32
Garrett Willis 86.70% 20.00% 2.36% 22.27
Jeff Maggert 31.55% 9.38% 1.78% 20.11
Briny Baird 41.71% 13.60% 1.68% 19.56
Greg Chalmers 99.98% 31.47% 2.08% 18.25
Woody Austin 37.15% 12.36% 1.88% 18.14
Josh Teater 59.87% 14.50% 1.74% 17.84
Nathan Green 24.20% 6.66% 1.46% 17.55
Ryuji Imada 36.09% 11.10% 1.48% 16.64
Troy Matteson 36.31% 11.72% 1.82% 16.38
Robert Garrigus 22.66% 6.32% 1.50% 16.16
Derek Lamely 39.65% 10.90% 1.42% 16.07
Kris Blanks 99.94% 18.88% 1.62% 15.76
Matt Bettencourt 32.81% 8.38% 1.24% 14.28
Andres Romero 26.85% 7.46% 1.28% 13.71
John Merrick 33.57% 9.86% 1.24% 13.02
J.P. Hayes 29.79% 7.62% 1.18% 12.70
Michael Letzig 27.77% 8.38% 1.34% 12.62
Alex Prugh 95.56% 16.82% 1.18% 11.22
Chris Riley 79.16% 20.08% 1.28% 11.03
Martin Laird 38.19% 9.84% 0.94% 9.74
Cameron Beckman 28.41% 7.00% 0.84% 7.86
Joe Ogilvie 33.31% 9.16% 0.80% 7.74
Bill Lunde 28.13% 6.88% 0.72% 7.36
Dean Wilson 31.89% 7.72% 0.80% 7.31
Graham Delaet 20.94% 4.12% 0.50% 3.50
David Duval 12.28% 1.66% 0.12% 1.14

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IS PUTTING RANDOM? PART 2

I went back and changed the simulation a little to factor in different number of strokes taken.

Here’s what the 2009 Sample Looked like

Average number of Putts: 925.05
Standard Deviation of Putts: 207.60
Average %: 87.1%
Standard Deviation %: 1.47%

Then I ran 5 trials using 200 putters, with a normal distributed number of putts around the average of 925, and standard deviation of 207.6 making on average 87.1% of their putts. Here are the results:

Average %: 87.0%
Standard Deviation 1.11%

As you can see randomly, there is slightly smaller variation. Obviously this still doesn’t account for factors like different green difficulty and other things that might make the standard deviation higher.

I think overall there is a slight difference between the best and worst putters on tour, but most of what we see is just random.

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ARE PRO GOLFERS THE SAME AT PUTTING?

I’ve been copying down some golf stats for a few projects, but one thing stuck out to me very quickly. How similar the putting stats looked for all PGA Pro’s.

Let’s take for example, “Putting from Inside 10 feet.”

The average player in 2009 made about 86% of his putts from inside 10 feet and took about 925 attempts on the season. Adjusting everyone out to 925 putts, the minimum was 765 and max was 836 with a standard deviation of almost 12.

I ran a simulation assuming the average putter makes 86% of his putts, and take 925 attempts. The standard deviation was smaller at around 9.25*, but the minimum and maximum were pretty similar at 775 and 830, respectively.

*Not too surprising considering there is a certain variance probably in the data from factors like different length on average putts, different courses played, different number of attempts.

One more important thing to note is that the top-10 putters on tour took an average of around 805 attempts from inside 10 feet in 2009 and the bottom-10 took an almost identical average of around 805. Obviously with an average of around 120 less putts, that increases the variance. There was a small correlation (around r=.2) between number of putts taken and distance away from average.

It’s certainly not conclusive, but it’s worth thinking about the next time some announcer tells you what a great putter player x is. Putting especially from inside of 10 feet requires such a lack of natural physical talent that it’s not out of the question that pro golfers have essentially mastered it.

I’m not sure how much of this I believe, but it could be possible that all pros are basically the same from 10-feet and in(or maybe putting in general) with the only difference being variance.

Just something to think about.

This raises the question is Tiger Woods really a great putter?

I’m not so sure. Maybe his clutch ten footers are a result of his superior ball-striking and scrambling around the green giving him more total ten footers. That is, it appears Tiger makes a ton of big putts from inside 10 feet because his superior ability to get it there gives him more opportunities than everyone else. Tiger’s skills approaching the green, specifically at distances that are hard (long iron, approaches to par 5s) or important (scrambling on missed greens) make him seem like a better putter.

This is what no one realizes. Over the past decade almost no one has hit it closer than Tiger approaching the green from the fairway and scrambling. Tiger looks like a great putter because a 3-footer is so much easier to make than an 8-footer or his tap-in 2-foot birdie is much more likely to fall than a player who wedged it to ten feet.

I doubt it surprises anyone who knows golf, that Tiger’s long game and scrambling are what have really separated him from the competition, but it’s interesting to wonder: Is there anything separating Tiger’s putting from the competition?

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