I’m thinking there is some pretty good value in the “How many majors prop will Tiger win?” prop at 5dimes, because Tiger must play in the US Masters for it to have action and I’m guessing if he plays the Masters you should assume he plays in all the other majors(or he won’t be missing any others because of his infidelities.)
5dimes currently has +285 for Tiger to win the Masters(which is probably good too, because again he must tee off for action). I used that(~25%) as his true winning percentage for all majors(This might be accurate for the Masters, which would be an early tournament back, but come PGA time there is no way in hell he would be that high assuming he comes back and plays anywhere near his average).
Doing with 5dimes price, I got this:
That means there is a lot of value on Tiger winning 1 or 2 majors this year. Again,since it’s no action if he doesn’t show up at Augusta I wouldn’t worry about him not playing all four unless he gets injured or something random.
If you think Tiger will have a better chance at later events, then 1 or 2 majors looks even better and 3 might become an option. The only concern for me is my guess for 0 majors is so far off. The obvious explanation would be that Tiger might skip the Masters, except the bets are no action in that case. I don’t know, I’m going to play around with some more stuff and see what I come up with before I make a decision.