I’m thinking there is some pretty good value in the “How many majors prop will Tiger win?” prop at 5dimes, because Tiger must play in the US Masters for it to have action and I’m guessing if he plays the Masters you should assume he plays in all the other majors(or he won’t be missing any others because of his infidelities.)

5dimes currently has +285 for Tiger to win the Masters(which is probably good too, because again he must tee off for action). I used that(~25%) as his true winning percentage for all majors(This might be accurate for the Masters, which would be an early tournament back, but come PGA time there is no way in hell he would be that high assuming he comes back and plays anywhere near his average).

Doing with 5dimes price, I got this:

0 majors-30.0%
1 major-42.1%
2 majors-22.2%
3 majors-5.2%
Grand Slam-.5%

That means there is a lot of value on Tiger winning 1 or 2 majors this year. Again,since it’s no action if he doesn’t show up at Augusta I wouldn’t worry about him not playing all four unless he gets injured or something random.

If you think Tiger will have a better chance at later events, then 1 or 2 majors looks even better and 3 might become an option. The only concern for me is my guess for 0 majors is so far off. The obvious explanation would be that Tiger might skip the Masters, except the bets are no action in that case. I don’t know, I’m going to play around with some more stuff and see what I come up with before I make a decision.



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4 responses to “TIGER 2010 MAJORS PROP

  1. EDIT: I’m not sure where 5dimes is getting -280 for Tiger not winning a major. He has won majors in 9/13 seasons as a pro.

    More importantly, if you start with the 97 Masters(first as a pro) and count off four majors(e.g. 97M, 97US, 97B, 97PGA is one “season”, the next is 97US, 97B, 97PGA, 98M) all the way until 2009 he has won a major during 33/47 “seasons.” That is way closer to my binomial distribution than -280.

    Again, I think -280 makes some sense if Tiger skips some majors, but with the bet depending on Tiger showing up at Augusta and how unlikely it is that he skips a major after showing up at one, I don’t think that is an issue.

  2. 17843

    The best part about this is that now that it looks like Tiger is coming back to at least play the Masters, 5 Dimes has brought their odds back to fairly reasonable levels (probably the most accurate since the prop first appeared in December).

    zero -115
    1 +200
    2 +650
    3 +2000
    4 +3300

    It’s like they didn’t actually realize the bets were no action if he didn’t play the Masters.

  3. There getting better. I still think Tiger winning 1-2-3 has some value as long as its no action if he doesn’t play the Masters.

  4. Johnb1

    Very interesting subject , appreciate it for posting . All human beings should try to learn before they die what they are running from, and to, and why. by James Thurber. dccgkccgcgek

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