Monthly Archives: April 2009

LETS GO NATS

It’s been almost 24 hours without the Nats in my life. I was getting worried.

Washington +109(2)

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BASEBALL LEANS

Washington-Tough to make this one not a double, considering the two teams involved. Although, Cabrera might be as bad a pitcher as we all think and we are buying the Nats high here after an improbable three scoreless innings from the bullpen last night.

San Diego– I should probably find something out about these two pitchers before I pull the trigger on this one. People may be taking the Dodgers because they are a better team, despite the fact they don’t really know these pitchers. This one is close, but I think it is a pass.

Arizona-Milwaukee getting too much credit for taking a ridiculous* amount of public money when they swept the Pirates. I’m not sold on Scherzer here yet.

*Considering it was around 50/50 and the Pirates were big underdogs and are not good.

Kansas City– This looks like a good play, but I feel like Toronto should be getting pounded harder on Wagerline before I settle on this. If this was at 7 o’clock I might play it, but given the time I won’t have a whole lot time to consider a marginal play. That is probably a good thing.

GOLF STREAKERS
Didn’t get up in time for Goosen over Cabrera. I think Phil is the way to go in the afternoon as he is a -120 favorite, and that is probably a pretty fair line. Haven’t checked what the non golf related streakers are for the afternoon yet, though, so there may be better overall plays.

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QUAIL HOLLOW CHAMPIONSHIP

In short, this is a strong field on a great old style course. That should make for an entertaining weekend.

I have ignored the Steve Marino sunday storyline this week because I am still unsure of what to make of it. Yes, he played like crap, from what I saw, but 2-under for the day isn’t horrendous. He also probably got lucky with the eagle on 16 and unlucky with his drive ending up in a bunker on 18. Tough to tell what should have happened there. Oh well, I got dead heated, life goes on.

The Winners*
Sergio Garcia +3550(.27)
Top-5 +700(1.25)

Martin Kaymer +12500(.15)
Top-5 +2200(.43)

I could spend time going through my process, but that implies there was a process. I had my eyes on these two guys pretty much right away and never left. You know who I don’t like in this tournament.
*Losers

MATCHUPS:
Adam Scott +140 over Nick Watney(2):
I can’t understand this one at all. Well actually I can. I just can’t understand the people that are betting this like Watney is so much better. Pretty darn even under my yearly and year+ metrics so you would have to value Nick Watney’s recent play extremely high or think there is something about it that is sustainable/predictable in the future. I don’t.

Robert Karlsson -125 over Ian Poulter(1)
I am officially no longer afraid of reverse line movement in Golf when I have the numbers to back up my opinion that the guy I bet on is better.

Jeev -125 over Vaughn Taylor(1):

You just knew I couldn’t go one of these mixed tourneys without taking Jeev and Bobby K.

Vijay +120 over Goosen(1):

This is what I would call “ugly,” as in I don’t think it has a very good chance to win/it is a fake contrarian line. Still, Vijay is hitting a ton of greens and not getting the results so far this year that Goose is. I’ll take a shot. Keep in mind I am about 0-6 on Vijay this season.

Paddy +105 over AK(1)
Sergio +105 over AK(1)
Paddy +125 over Ogilvy(1)

Harrington and Garcia are guys that have excelled on these types of courses, but not necessarily this one. Fading a former champ and a guy with decent history here, with two players who haven’t reached their potential this season.

Scott Piercy +100 over JJ Henry(1):
This kind of looks like a trap, but I really don’t think people are looking at Piercy like I am and JJ Henry is not that good. I’ll take my chances that 50.1% of the time Piercy is better.

Passing Mahan -110 over Sabbs, because of Mahan’s recent hot play. None of the Matchups for round one are available/look enticing. Fantasy squad will be up tomorrow morning.

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HOW TO RUIN A NICE DAY

Cleveland +122(1)
Atlanta -114(1)
Nats +162(1)
San Francisco -150(1)

Golf picks will be up later tonight. I am 99% sure of what I am playing I just want to run them through each of my metrics to double check.

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DAY TIMERS

Seattle became clearly a pass.

Arizona +105(1)
Milwaukee -200(1)

Third straight day laying chalk with Milwaukee, but PECOTA thought Pittsburgh would really suck this year and they getting around 50% of the action at Wagerline at most. At that number, it is too glaring to pass.

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A LITTLE LUCKY?

Last night was the first night I really felt like I got a bit lucky despite losing a few units and the first Seattle game. My teams got outscored by a decent bit and I was 3-2 in one run games, which were my only three wins. It could have gone a lot worse, but I remained slightly above even for the past two days.

LEANS:
Milwaukee-Laying a big number against Snell(FROM DELAWARE) is probably enough for me to pass this one despite the early 50/50 Wagerline split.

Mariners-These are the ones that give me fits. Bedard against Floyd seems pretty obvious, almost too obvious, from the contrarian perspective and I’m not entirely sure how to guage the square perspective in this one, as Bedard and the Mariners have been pretty good so far this season. If the Wagerline splits stay where they were last night, then this is probably a go.

Atlanta
-It doesn’t really feel that creative at this point.

Cleveland-Early Wagerline splits have this in the play area, but I am not too crazy about the pitching matchup.

Kansas City-Toronto is back. They simply cannot be stopped. Grienke’s amazing start is a decent sized caution flag in this one, though.

San Francisco- Again, a decent sized favorite pops up in the leans. Even though Lincecum is the reigning Cy Young, this makes some sense because Stults is 2-0 and the Dodgers are a more popular and better team with a positive number.

Nationals- Another tricky game here. If you use the “ugly” criteria this one may not be as bad as a few other Nationals games considering Myers gives up a TON of homers and is back in a hitter’s park. On the other hand the Nationals are 4-15, with Olsen pitching, and generally suck.

Arizona- Same story here. I can’t determine if I like some of these teams less because it is the third day in a row and I am somewhat weary of “Arizona +XXX over Chicago” or if they are worse plays. I tend to think it might be the former.

Golf picks up throughout the day.

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OPEN DE ESPANA GOLF PICKS

I really don’t want to bother looking up when this tournament starts, because I don’t plan to be that involved in it. I did, however, have to make one pick that jumped right off the odds list.

Francesco Molinari -105 over GFC(1)
When GFC traveled over to Mayacoba, I thought, and it now appears rightly so, that he was one of the hidden gems in the world of golf. Since posting 6 straight finishes of 24 or better, including three straight second places(Flipping three man playoffs.*) he may be a bit overrated. You may remember Molinari from winning the US Amateur Championship at one of my favorite courses, Lower Merion. Since then, he has posted some incredibly consistent finishes on the Euro Tour. 9 Top tens in the past year and half for Molinari with no wins may make him slightly underrated despite consecutive 3rd place finishes. If it matters, Molinari doesn’t have to make the trip half way around the world that GFC does.

As far as the outright go, I am passing this bad boy. Lynn, Wall, Wood were the list of who I looked at, but ultimately they were nowhere near as strong as the two I already have in for Quail Hollow, which will be posted tomorrow, when the possibility of top-5 and 10’s exist.

I am eagerly awaiting next week on the Euro Tour when our conquering hero makes his triumphant return.

*Yeah, I am 0-2 in those in the past month.

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