|Bo Van Pelt||-0.287||214||0.962||1.5890%||6193|
|Davis Love III||-0.299||162||0.925||1.3613%||7246|
|Charles Howell III||-0.290||199||0.823||0.6160%||16133|
A couple of notes:
-People seem to like the rankings so I’ll keep posting them. I think it caused confusion last week, where people looked at the odds to win, saw a big difference and figured it might be good for head-to-head. I’m not sure, I use mostly the z-score to compare two players, while when figuring out who is going to win, the standard deviation comes into play more. Think about it like winning a golf tournament requires a great performance, an average player with a large standard deviation has a better chance of shooting really low(and really high) over four rounds to win(or DFL), but that doesn’t necessarily make it better head-to-head.
-Haven’t put in last week’s scores yet. Shouldn’t make too big a difference, but if you want to fade someone who played well last week, I’d consider that.
-New course this year.
I adjusted Tiger down again, although slightly higher than the U.S. Open, to be more in line with the odds. At this point, as Tiger continues to get more practice and more into the routine of playing on tour, there is no way he doesn’t have upside. Tiger’s performance from the last 3 years is well above where I adjusted him, so even if he’s still less than 100%(probable) I think it’s pretty reasonable to assume there is still some value in El Tigre.
I’m willing to give Rose a slight edge for his strong play last week that is not included above, but I have no reason to suspect he is anywhere near the top few favorites in the field. He’s basically played at the same level since 2004, with one good season in 2010 and one bad one in 2008. Rose seems to be at an age where most players should enter there prime, so I’ll give him credit for that, but it’s not enough to warrant less than 30-1.
I could tell you by this price, Steve hasn’t finished in the top ten recently bringing out the “Best player who hasn’t won on tour yet” discussion again. Actually, he only has one top ten all season at the ATT Pebble Beach Pro Am. Steve’s 2010 is slightly down from a good 09, but overall I still like where he is and the ranking above is probably pretty good if not slightly low.
Haven’t really looked at the match-ups yet. If you have any questions feel free to ask.