Monthly Archives: June 2010

2010 ATT NATIONAL

PLAYER Z-SC ROUNDS ST DEV PCT ODDS
Tiger Woods -1.010 87 0.883 24.0727% 315
Jim Furyk -0.647 175 0.874 6.1683% 1521
Robert Allenby -0.469 194 0.872 2.5429% 3833
Dustin Johnson -0.357 166 0.986 2.5281% 3855
Nick Watney -0.376 192 0.918 1.9790% 4953
Sean O’Hair -0.386 168 0.907 1.9729% 4969
Lucas Glover -0.343 181 0.938 1.8538% 5294
Rickie Fowler -0.203 88 1.052 1.6808% 5849
Bo Van Pelt -0.287 214 0.962 1.5890% 6193
Justin Rose -0.261 186 0.978 1.5114% 6516
Davis Love III -0.299 162 0.925 1.3613% 7246
Steve Marino -0.338 211 0.884 1.3105% 7530
Ryan Moore -0.175 167 1.028 1.2911% 7645
David Toms -0.401 169 0.825 1.2869% 7670
Brian Gay -0.254 206 0.944 1.1913% 8294
Paul Goydos -0.040 166 1.131 1.1716% 8435
Vijay Singh -0.316 139 0.888 1.1809% 8368
Ben Crane -0.324 179 0.878 1.1576% 8539
J.B. Holmes -0.161 168 1.016 1.1257% 8783
Scott Verplank -0.331 172 0.862 1.0860% 9108
Jeff Overton -0.197 197 0.977 1.0685% 9259
Charley Hoffman -0.238 188 0.935 1.0278% 9629
Jason Day -0.222 150 0.944 0.9961% 9939
D.J. Trahan -0.216 184 0.947 0.9813% 10091
Y.E. Yang -0.210 192 0.952 0.9789% 10115
Justin Leonard -0.297 179 0.868 0.9142% 10838
Brandt Snedeker -0.202 176 0.944 0.8920% 11111
Mathew Goggin -0.045 165 1.073 0.8742% 11339
Kevin Streelman -0.194 204 0.935 0.7984% 12425
Jason Dufner -0.231 189 0.902 0.7870% 12606
Bryce Molder -0.228 176 0.901 0.7639% 12991
Chad Collins -0.112 186 0.996 0.7603% 13053
Scott Piercy 0.024 182 1.103 0.7406% 13402
Pat Perez -0.264 164 0.865 0.7272% 13651
John Senden -0.272 204 0.855 0.7062% 14061
Aaron Baddeley -0.079 145 1.009 0.6920% 14351
Matt Jones -0.052 159 1.029 0.6814% 14577
Blake Adams -0.145 148 0.953 0.6830% 14540
Fredrik Jacobson -0.239 136 0.875 0.6689% 14851
Kevin Sutherland -0.273 187 0.846 0.6633% 14975
D.A. Points -0.066 193 1.004 0.6193% 16048
Charles Howell III -0.290 199 0.823 0.6160% 16133
Kevin Stadler -0.057 160 1.005 0.5958% 16685
Andres Romero -0.020 149 1.029 0.5726% 17365
John Mallinger -0.036 169 1.015 0.5652% 17592
Nathan Green 0.088 205 1.110 0.5596% 17771
Briny Baird -0.157 186 0.918 0.5618% 17700
George McNeill -0.183 169 0.897 0.5594% 17777
Robert Garrigus -0.102 157 0.957 0.5451% 18245
Jerry Kelly -0.154 187 0.917 0.5458% 18222
Michael Allen -0.193 149 0.886 0.5446% 18261
Alex Cejka -0.014 176 1.022 0.5281% 18837
Tim Petrovic -0.101 192 0.954 0.5265% 18894
Boo Weekley -0.141 165 0.918 0.5092% 19540
Josh Teater 0.006 95 1.031 0.5031% 19777

A couple of notes:
-People seem to like the rankings so I’ll keep posting them. I think it caused confusion last week, where people looked at the odds to win, saw a big difference and figured it might be good for head-to-head. I’m not sure, I use mostly the z-score to compare two players, while when figuring out who is going to win, the standard deviation comes into play more. Think about it like winning a golf tournament requires a great performance, an average player with a large standard deviation has a better chance of shooting really low(and really high) over four rounds to win(or DFL), but that doesn’t necessarily make it better head-to-head.

-Haven’t put in last week’s scores yet. Shouldn’t make too big a difference, but if you want to fade someone who played well last week, I’d consider that.

-New course this year.

Tiger Woods
I adjusted Tiger down again, although slightly higher than the U.S. Open, to be more in line with the odds. At this point, as Tiger continues to get more practice and more into the routine of playing on tour, there is no way he doesn’t have upside. Tiger’s performance from the last 3 years is well above where I adjusted him, so even if he’s still less than 100%(probable) I think it’s pretty reasonable to assume there is still some value in El Tigre.

Justin Rose
I’m willing to give Rose a slight edge for his strong play last week that is not included above, but I have no reason to suspect he is anywhere near the top few favorites in the field. He’s basically played at the same level since 2004, with one good season in 2010 and one bad one in 2008. Rose seems to be at an age where most players should enter there prime, so I’ll give him credit for that, but it’s not enough to warrant less than 30-1.

Steve Marino
I could tell you by this price, Steve hasn’t finished in the top ten recently bringing out the “Best player who hasn’t won on tour yet” discussion again. Actually, he only has one top ten all season at the ATT Pebble Beach Pro Am. Steve’s 2010 is slightly down from a good 09, but overall I still like where he is and the ranking above is probably pretty good if not slightly low.

Haven’t really looked at the match-ups yet. If you have any questions feel free to ask.

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WATFO: TRAVELERS CHAMPIONSHIP

If you weren’t all golfed out from the US Open, and hungover from celebrating Uruguay’s heroic world cup victory it sounds like the end to the Traveler’s Championship was quite exciting. Thanks to a new simulation(with help from XLS Sports) I took a look at the closing stretch of the Traveler’s Championship.

I didn’t actually watch this, so the groupings might be a little off, but I started with the final pairing on 15 and went back from there.

To start things off, Rose and Curtis have walked onto the 15th tee and Corey Pavin is playing his last hole. The Leaderboard, would look like this:

Player (to par) thru hole #
Bubba Watson (-15) 16
Verplank (-14) F
Pavin (-14) 17
Rose (-14) 14

After 500 simulations, here are the chances of winning:

PLAYER WIN REG WIN PLAY PLAYOFF TOTAL
Bubba Watson 43.60% 13.20% 30.00% 56.80%
Justin Rose 18.00% 8.20% 20.40% 26.20%
Corey Pavin 4.20% 7.00% 19.80% 11.20%
Scott Verplank 0.20% 3.60% 13.20% 3.80%
Ben Curtis 1.20% 0.80% 3.40% 2.00%
Ricky Barnes 0.00% 0.20% 0.20% 0.20%

Now, just one hole later it get’s interesting. Watson and Rose completely butcher the 17th and 15th holes, respectively. Pavin makes a par on 18 and ties for the clubhouse lead. Now it looks more like this:

PLAYER WIN REG WIN PLAY PLAYOFF TOTAL
Scott Verplank 0.00% 46.20% 98.20% 46.20%
Corey Pavin 0.00% 42.00% 98.20% 42.00%
Bubba Watson 1.00% 6.20% 20.00% 7.20%
Ben Curtis 0.40% 2.40% 7.00% 2.80%
Justin Rose 0.60% 1.40% 5.60% 2.00%

As you can see, Watson and Rose, who had an 83% chance of winning before holes 15 and 17 are now down to 9.2%. Pavin and Verplank who before were about 1 in 5 to make a playoff are now over 98% to make it to a playoff. Then, Bubba birdies the last to tie:

PLAYER WIN REG WIN PLAY PLAYOFF TOTAL
Bubba Watson 0.00% 31.80% 100.00% 31.80%
Corey Pavin 0.00% 32.00% 100.00% 32.00%
Scott Verplank 0.00% 36.20% 100.00% 36.20%
Justin Rose 0.00% 0.00% 0.20% 0.00%

Bubba’s birdie guarantees a playoff. My simulation is slightly high on eagles happening, so Rose making a playoff 1 out of 500 times is probably too big. To be honest, it’s probably about 1 in 500 of Rose making eagle at 17, then 1 in 5 or 6 that he makes birdie on 18, so his odds of making a playoff are much higher at this point. Once Rose makes par at 17, the outcome is set. Verplank, Pavin and Bubba are going to a playoff. After 500 more simulations, the playoff odds look like this:

PLAYER WIN REG WIN PLAY PLAYOFF TOTAL
Bubba Watson 0.00% 34.30% 100.00% 34.30%
Scott Verplank 0.00% 33.60% 100.00% 33.60%
Corey Pavin 0.00% 32.10% 100.00% 32.10%

Overall, Verplank is the best player(by a hair over Bubba) but one hole of golf offers enough variance that Bubba is more likely to win. Honestly, it’s not much of a difference at this point. After the first hole, Bubba and Verplank are still tied:

PLAYER WIN REG WIN PLAY PLAYOFF TOTAL
Scott Verplank 0.00% 52.70% 100.00% 52.70%
Bubba Watson 0.00% 47.30% 100.00% 47.30%

Bubba obviously won this coin flip with a third straight birdie and took home the title, but it was not an easy final few holes.

All in all, I think this worked pretty well aside from the fact this puts eagles at about 1 in 200 when they should be more like 1 in 500, I think. Other than that, I’m very pleased and will bring this new method back in a live fashion when I’m around.

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LUCK OF THE DRAW

Cajuncook sends along this breakdown of the world cup draw, because in his words, “he’s not cool enough to have a blog.” I’m not sure “cool” is the right word, but this is good work anyways.

He basically switched the groups facing each other in the knockout stage what impact that had on each team’s chances of advancing. The only thing I did was rearrange them by team to make it more readable.

I’m sure he’ll be around in the comments if anyone wants clarification, but I think the ranking is some kind of adjustment of SPI to the vegas odds. 50,000 simulations in each scenario. The chart below shows the odds of advancing to quarter-finals and semi-finals followed by the average difference of all other scenarios. For QF matches, I used the odds of advancing instead of sim.

The quarter-final odds are a nice tool to gauge the relative strength of the teams left. For example, Ghana would be an average of 10% less likely to win against any team but the United States. This means that the United States was the weakest team to win their group in the books estimation. I’m not sure if it’s an error in the simulation, a not perfect adjustment, or people think Argentina is really good because of good play in the group stage and obvious talent. Probably a combination of all 3, but the based on this the #1 teams rankings are as follows:

Argentina
Brazil
Germany
Spain
Uruguay
Netherlands
Paraguay
United States

The number 2 teams would be:
Portugal
England
Ghana
Chile
Slovakia
Japan
Mexico
South Korea

Obviously the first round match is hugely important, as a number one seed could range from drawing England or Portugal, legit threats to win the tournament, or someone who is less likely like South Korea. You would have to say Ghana got the best break, being a strong 2, and drawing the weakest #1. If there draw had lined up differently they could have drawn Brazil.

The next important thing is that the Uruguay-South Korea-United States-Ghana group was incredibly easy. This is not a shocker. It was very likely late in the US game against Algeria that this group could have included England, which definitely would have been more equally distributed with the rest of the field. As it stands, That quadrant turned into a weak one, and England-Germany-Argentina-Mexico is the powerhouse region for the tourney.

After the Semi-finals, I did not want to put out the simulation, because it looks to be a little off in how it values some of the teams. But, interestingly after the SFs, Brazil and Netherlands probably are the luckiest. There group will be much harder to get out than Spain’s but once they do, Uruguay or Ghana are waiting for them that is not nearly as bad as the potential of Argentina, England or Germany.

Overall, though, Uruguay-Ghana-US-South Korea, got the best break.

Thanks again to cajuncook.

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2010 TRAVELERS CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND 1

I should mention I took these down before everyone had finished, but there were like 4 people left on the course, they were all terrible and they were way off the lead. I don’t think it influences this in any meaningful way.

Player PCT ODDS
Padraig Harrington 13.20% 658
Justin Rose 7.98% 1153
Ben Curtis 5.72% 1648
Mathew Goggin 5.16% 1839
Bubba Watson 4.96% 1915
Vijay Singh 4.91% 1937
Charlie Wi 4.29% 2233
Kevin Sutherland 3.41% 2830
David Toms 3.37% 2871
Matt Jones 3.06% 3171
Retief Goosen 2.53% 3847
Jason Bohn 2.26% 4319
Jeff Overton 1.79% 5500
Scott Verplank 1.75% 5620
Jerry Kelly 1.73% 5684
Corey Pavin 1.73% 5688
Kenny Perry 1.58% 6210
Chad Campbell 1.50% 6569
Ryan Moore 1.34% 7378
Michael Sim 1.32% 7457

Justin Rose
Rose is having a great 2010, which is driving his favorite status. He’s also, young and at an age where you could expect progress. That being said, 2010 is enough over any year I have on record, to suggest to me that whatever adjustment could reasonably be made is not close to warranting his lofty price right now.

Padraig Harrington
Not a good price, but reasonably fair all things considered with him. Part of this is probably because 2010 is a slightly down year for him so far and he shot a low first round in Memphis a few weeks ago and disappeared.

Mathew Goggin

I’ve had half on eye on him at most tournaments because based on my numbers he is always one of the best bets in the field. Of course, most of that is driven by a high standard deviation relative to players of his skill. Most of my high opinion is probably derived from what looks to be an above average 2008, which you would think is slightly less meaningful now. You could also argue that 2010 is way below average for Goggin, so they probably balance out. Based on 2 years, I still think low on Goggin, though inconsistent play leaves his standard deviation really high. I’d say he might be closer than 20-1, than what’s listed above, but I’m still high on Goggin.

Vijay Singh
Probably a pretty fair price on Vijay based on 2 years, but you could definitely make a case that Vijay has some upside as his 2009 and 2010 were marred by injuries and he has a notoriously strong work ethic. Plus, no one likes him because he can’t putt.

Michael Sim

You can’t deny that Michael Sim’s 2009 was not among the 25 best in the world last year, regardless of what tour he played on. You can debate how much of an aberration that was. Looking at his whole career, 2009 definitely stands out as he was never really better than average in any other year. On top of that, he doesn’t stand out as the great ball-striker that usually is underrated. I’m not sure I’m buying 75-1(my numbers) at the moment, but I would love to be proved wrong, and I doubt 140-1, isn’t somewhat good.

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WORLD CUP BRACKET’s PART 1

Let’s start with the group that includes Uruguay. This is just an incredibly fortunate break for Uruguay as this group containing the USA, South Korea and Ghana, probably wouldn’t be considered strong for the group stages. When you look at how the rest of the groups could shake out, these 4 teams would be way more likely to go the final four than if they switched into any other portion of the bracket.

Uruguay
The true heroes of the tournament so far. Uruguay is around 65% to advance over South Korea and by far is the team most likely to turn their lucky draw into a World Cup victory. Nate Silver’s rankings aside, I think Uruguay is a great underrated team so far. True, they have been very good at the World Cup, but who thinks of Uruguay as a soccer power and once everyone else is set in the second round, bigger name teams are sure to draw more attention.

South Korea
South Korea won’t get much attention, in what is sure to be the most anonymous Round 1 game. They don’t stand a great chance to get past Uruguay, but if they do, they will benefit hugely from the second round opponent. It’s probably not reasonable to expect too much from South Korea, but I think they might offer some good value for a longshot.

Ghana
I know SPI values home-continent advantage, but this reeks of a little b.s. to my uneducated soccer opinion. Ghana is not remotely close to South Africa and I’m sure the climates are very different. I know Silver has said his research shows a strong tendency to do well on continent, but up until the last few years, most world cups have been held in Europe or South America, where traditional soccer powerhouses reside. Again, I’m not sure how much of an advantage he gives, but I’d definitely be slightly skeptical of the United States.

United States
There are a few ways to look at the US. 1) They won their group. 2) They were minutes away from not advancing. On top of that, This is a team that had a +1 goal differential for the tournament, but easily could have been 2-0-1 if their games weren’t reffed by Osama Bin Laden. If bad calls are just bad luck, than any rating system surely has the United States underrated because of the 2 goals that absolutely should have counted. That being said, you can’t count out getting dominated by Slovenia for 45 minutes, or a lucky goal against England in the first round. From what I can tell, the US is great at not converting on scoring opportunities, getting robbed by refs and shaky on defense. That doesn’t seem like a great combination on what should be a very overrated squad.

Overview:
I’m pretty sure there will be no attention on South Korea or Uruguay. They both look good per SPI, and I’m happy with that because I’d tend to be skeptical of Ghana’s advantage, and the US is almost certainly overrated on “heart” and reputation alone. It may suck to root against the US, but I think that’s the way to go. You can put it in @chadmillman’s words and call it an “emotional hedge” if it feels better.

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RANKING THE TRAVELERS CHAMPIONSHIP FIELD

Got lazy this week and spent approximately zero minutes looking at the field. I did take some time to come up with these odds, though.

Player Z-score Rounds St Dev To WIN
Hunter Mahan -0.466 182 0.932 4.5061%
Padraig Harrington -0.486 175 0.882 4.0364%
Retief Goosen -0.442 184 0.929 3.9708%
Kenny Perry -0.392 185 0.972 3.7779%
Kevin Na -0.220 184 0.974 1.6687%
Matt Kuchar -0.428 163 0.866 2.7941%
Rickie Fowler -0.203 88 1.052 2.2647%
Bo Van Pelt -0.287 214 0.962 2.2056%
Ben Curtis -0.299 158 0.949 2.1799%
Justin Rose -0.261 186 0.978 2.0918%
David Toms -0.401 169 0.825 1.9058%
Michael Sim -0.223 133 0.988 1.8312%
Ryan Moore -0.175 167 1.028 1.7721%
Bubba Watson -0.299 156 0.908 1.7546%
Vijay Singh -0.316 139 0.888 1.7092%
Brian Gay -0.254 206 0.944 1.6868%
Scott Verplank -0.331 172 0.862 1.5957%
Jeff Overton -0.197 197 0.977 1.5035%
Adam Scott -0.134 147 1.032 1.4776%
Charley Hoffman -0.238 188 0.935 1.4706%
Bill Haas -0.269 184 0.889 1.3205%
Brandt Snedeker -0.202 176 0.944 1.2800%
Chad Campbell -0.209 176 0.935 1.2586%
Mathew Goggin -0.045 165 1.073 1.2032%
Kevin Streelman -0.194 204 0.935 1.1555%
Jason Bohn -0.169 136 0.954 1.1370%
Bryce Molder -0.228 176 0.901 1.1231%
Scott Piercy 0.024 182 1.103 1.0172%
Kevin Sutherland -0.273 187 0.846 1.0064%
Blake Adams -0.145 148 0.953 0.9887%
Aaron Baddeley -0.079 145 1.009 0.9814%
Matt Jones -0.052 159 1.029 0.9605%
Charles Howell III -0.290 199 0.823 0.9487%
Kevin Stadler -0.057 160 1.005 0.8512%
George McNeill -0.183 169 0.897 0.8359%
Briny Baird -0.157 186 0.918 0.8319%
Michael Allen -0.193 149 0.886 0.8190%
Jerry Kelly -0.154 187 0.917 0.8096%
Robert Garrigus -0.102 157 0.957 0.7955%
Nathan Green 0.088 205 1.110 0.7752%
Tim Petrovic -0.101 192 0.954 0.7706%
Stewart Cink -0.254 161 0.827 0.7680%
Boo Weekley -0.141 165 0.918 0.7571%
Charlie Wi -0.185 185 0.877 0.7295%
Tom Gillis -0.188 129 0.870 0.7020%
Tom Pernice Jr. -0.103 171 0.939 0.7002%
Derek Lamely 0.033 118 1.046 0.6856%
Woody Austin -0.181 185 0.871 0.6805%
Ricky Barnes -0.098 181 0.936 0.6669%
Scott McCarron -0.061 164 0.962 0.6506%
Jeff Maggert 0.119 169 1.103 0.6320%
Troy Matteson -0.033 177 0.981 0.6315%
Chris Couch -0.094 61 0.929 0.6169%
Rod Pampling -0.150 189 0.883 0.6125%
John Merrick -0.016 194 0.989 0.6075%
J.J. Henry -0.122 211 0.903 0.6037%
Chris Stroud 0.032 177 1.023 0.5878%
Brian Davis -0.122 209 0.900 0.5848%
Vaughn Taylor -0.057 182 0.950 0.5812%
Steve Elkington -0.088 144 0.921 0.5592%
Ryuji Imada -0.073 171 0.930 0.5479%
James Nitties 0.008 143 0.991 0.5396%
Mathias Gronberg 0.173 157 1.111 0.5018%
Garrett Willis 0.008 147 0.978 0.4865%
J.P. Hayes -0.008 116 0.963 0.4761%
Tim Herron -0.054 170 0.927 0.4744%
Brendon de Jonge -0.131 218 0.867 0.4706%
Greg Owen -0.062 179 0.917 0.4604%
Cameron Beckman -0.015 169 0.951 0.4521%
John Huston 0.086 90 1.028 0.4516%
Webb Simpson -0.108 178 0.880 0.4505%
Michael Letzig -0.033 173 0.937 0.4503%
Martin Laird -0.039 191 0.925 0.4245%
Alex Prugh -0.047 172 0.915 0.4096%
Corey Pavin -0.108 133 0.865 0.3979%
Shaun Micheel -0.028 105 0.925 0.3963%
Steve Flesch 0.016 172 0.957 0.3933%
Cameron Percy -0.004 156 0.941 0.3911%
Rocco Mediate 0.134 147 1.045 0.3910%
Nicholas Thompson 0.129 193 1.041 0.3882%
Billy Mayfair 0.099 177 1.018 0.3881%
Matt Bettencourt 0.113 203 1.023 0.3741%
Joe Ogilvie -0.051 180 0.899 0.3682%
Spencer Levin -0.155 209 0.821 0.3650%
Kris Blanks 0.054 176 0.974 0.3570%
Carl Pettersson -0.078 191 0.872 0.3449%
Daniel Chopra 0.165 185 1.051 0.3411%
Greg Chalmers -0.146 200 0.817 0.3264%
Lee Janzen -0.005 166 0.915 0.3113%
John Daly 0.291 109 1.129 0.3070%
Chris Riley -0.044 145 0.883 0.3033%
Charles Warren 0.043 132 0.945 0.2987%
Bill Lunde 0.037 177 0.940 0.2970%
Will MacKenzie 0.141 131 1.013 0.2903%
Joe Durant 0.067 138 0.942 0.2477%
Skip Kendall 0.179 172 1.017 0.2394%
Brett Quigley -0.031 184 0.861 0.2215%
Stuart Appleby -0.024 183 0.866 0.2212%
Matt Every 0.165 157 0.995 0.2144%
Garth Mulroy 0.130 177 0.970 0.2137%
Aron Price 0.109 173 0.954 0.2110%
Arjun Atwal 0.106 119 0.947 0.2023%
Jarrod Lyle 0.054 161 0.905 0.1899%
Roland Thatcher 0.276 86 1.052 0.1793%
Todd Hamilton 0.125 148 0.947 0.1772%
Matt Weibring 0.010 141 0.865 0.1713%
Steve Wheatcroft 0.127 153 0.944 0.1692%
Harrison Frazar 0.063 173 0.891 0.1522%
Michael Connell 0.026 47 0.864 0.1503%
Roger Tambellini 0.107 167 0.917 0.1479%
Parker McLachlin 0.388 139 1.105 0.1464%
Johnson Wagner 0.104 167 0.909 0.1378%
Graham Delaet 0.015 58 0.849 0.1371%
Richard S. Johnson 0.044 173 0.864 0.1306%
Steve Lowery 0.225 163 0.984 0.1302%
Ted Purdy 0.127 184 0.917 0.1270%
Cliff Kresge 0.216 134 0.974 0.1252%
Brian Stuard 0.205 169 0.965 0.1225%
Rich Barcelo 0.136 157 0.919 0.1215%
Jerod Turner 0.238 77 0.983 0.1187%
Chris DiMarco -0.021 178 0.810 0.1143%
Michael Bradley 0.136 120 0.904 0.1035%
Justin Bolli 0.147 151 0.908 0.1006%
James Driscoll 0.115 134 0.873 0.0839%
Henrik Bjornstad 0.064 173 0.835 0.0785%
Brenden Pappas 0.303 163 0.977 0.0707%
Omar Uresti 0.087 159 0.838 0.0670%
Jay Williamson 0.214 161 0.915 0.0655%
Troy Merritt 0.242 107 0.929 0.0626%
Andrew McLardy 0.190 140 0.887 0.0556%
Vance Veazey 0.194 156 0.883 0.0512%
Jeff Gove 0.184 156 0.876 0.0501%
Craig Bowden 0.200 159 0.880 0.0468%
Jeff Quinney 0.129 151 0.836 0.0460%
Luke List 0.263 74 0.914 0.0443%
Martin Flores 0.357 61 0.965 0.0412%
David Lutterus 0.575 86 1.093 0.0404%
Tom Gleeton #N/A #N/A 0.0358%
Nick Taylor 0.507 6 1.524 0.0358%
Cameron Tringale 0.133 35 0.818 0.0358%
Brett Wetterich 0.049 24 0.885 0.0358%
Kevin Johnson 0.349 144 0.943 0.0331%
Greg Kraft 0.455 118 0.951 0.0159%
Brent Delahoussaye 0.444 97 0.944 0.0159%
Brad Faxon 0.675 104 1.053 0.0122%
Billy Andrade 0.409 74 0.869 0.0063%
Chris Wilson 0.615 40 0.972 0.0059%
Notah Begay III 0.627 80 0.943 0.0032%

I didn’t put enough thought in to do anything this week for now, but if you have a question or want an opinion on a player, let me know in the comments.

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WATFO:ISNER-MAHUT

If you asked me on Tuesday morning, I’m not sure I could have told you who either of these guys were. 100+ 5th set games and a couple of trending twitter topics later, I know who they are.

My biggest question, is how rare is it that neither of these guys can break each other over 100+ games?

From what I could gather from my limited knowledge of Tennis stats each player won around 80% of the points on their serve. I set up a quick sim, based on winning 4 out of 6 points with the server holding an 80% chance of winning each point. That yields the following odds:

Server: 90.3%
Deuce: 8.0%
Returner: 1.7%

Break up the deuce games with the same 80% chance that the server wins by 2 and you get around 97.8% chance that the server holds. That’s incredible.

As it turns out, winning 80% of the points on your serve is a very good thing. The odds of holding serve 59 consecutive games are actually quite high, 27.2%. The odds of two people doing that while winning 80% of points on their serve is 7.4%.

That sounds quite high, but makes sense given that the two players were serving so dominantly. The more incredible thing is that two players serve that well against each other(I can’t imagine their are many matches where each player wins 80% of the points on their serve), in the final set of one of the three majors that don’t use fifth set Tie-breakers. The odds on that are obviously a lot higher.

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