Monthly Archives: May 2009

GUESSING GOLF ODDS: MEMORIAL

memorial
Trahan may be higher.

Reminder, the second round of our Golf Contest will be running this week, we’re going with 08 Nationwide Grads, low South African and worst previous champion as the groups. The groups and matchups will be posted late Monday night after I have a look at the Vegas lines.

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AGAIN AND AGAIN

Some of these teams may sound familiar.

Cleveland +125(1)
Baltimore +106(1)
Washington +121(1)
Colorado -150(1)
San Francisco +128(1)
Oakland +141(1)

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THE FINAL ROUND AT COLONIAL

Also known as how to screw-up a winning week.

Luke Donald -110 over Ian Poultahomosexualwhodidntlookquiteasgaywitheveryonewearingpinkyesterdayohwaithedoes.

Adding:
Tim Clark to win +165(1)

colonial3

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NO EURO PLAYS

I opened up the leaderboard and saw the top-5 and I couldn’t handle it, so I just looked away. Ask me in 24 hours and I probably couldn’t tell you who won, because I just don’t want to look at the fact that 6 of the top 7 I have wagered money on outrights multiple times on in the past. Un-fucking-believable.

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NOT THE NATIONALS

Oakland +135(1)
Seattle -106(1)
San Francisco +138(1)
Baltimore +115(1)

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MOVING DAY AROUND THE WORLD

European Open:
I really am not at all interested in anything from Europe today. I have Jeev at slightly under +415 that 5dimes is offering, but its not a big edge, and Jeev probably has no upside at this point in his career. That is two pretty big knocks to still take that one, but I think that is better than anything else offered.
europeanopen2

Crowne Plaza Colonial Invitational:
Right about now I am pretty pissed that I didn’t take Steve Stricker yesterday. He showed a ton of value in my numbers, but in the end as frustrating as “Steve Stricker -14” is I think caution was the better route their.

Stricker and Tim Clark are setting a pretty torrid pace in this one and remain in dominant position. The combination of only 5 guys within four shots of the lead and some good players at the top means someone is going to have to go pretty low over the weekend to win.

Once again Stricker is underrated by the Vegas odds. This again is incredibly tempting and I think I’m going to have to bite this time. I have a 12% edge and it is certainly not that high, but I think its still +EV.
colonial2
Yup, I only have 7 guys with a better than one percent chance of winning. That’s what happens when one guy shoots the lowest round in the field twice in a row.

PICKS:
Steve Stricker to win +245(1)

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STREAK FOR THE CASH: MAY 29

I may or may not start doing these regularly.

Current Streak: 16 from Bristol

I’ve really been on a pretty nice roll since the Charles Howell debacle. By my count, I’ve hit 9 out of my last 10. I’m due for a loss.

Today is an easy choice for me, there are two plays that are no brainers regardless of streak. At 11am, Victoria Azarenka takes on Carla Suarez-Navarro. I’ve never heard of either of these players, but Pinnacle has and they have Azarenka as a -203 favorite.

Assuming my streak is at 5 after Azarenka wins 6-0, 6-0, I’m waiting it out for until the Nuggets and Lakers game at 9. The Nuggets are -220 favorites, so that is about as good as you are going to get in streak. I assume that includes the inevitable 45-0 edge in fouls called for Kobe v. fouls called for Carmelo.

If Azarenka loses,(How long will that take?) It is basically a free play in the afternoon. Billingsley is a toss up, but I like him more, slight edge to Clermont win or draw, but not much more than Billingsley. In the golf, I have Brian Gay as a small favorite(-102) but not a huge edge there, either. If worst comes to worst, I’ll roll the dice with Billingsley and hope it doesn’t go 23 innings.

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