Monthly Archives: June 2009
Furyk +300 v. Tiger
Casey +120 v. Mahan
Sean O’Hair +100 v. Anthony Kim
Pat Perez +145 v. John Senden
Bryce Molder +100 v. Stuart Appleby-WTF? This seems really random.
Bubba Watson -115 v. Ryan Moore
Casey -105 v. Kim
Lot of chopping left to do on that mediocre selection. There are also better lines at the Greek on some of those.
That one day my streak will be judged not by the color of the sports I pick, but by quality of the streak.
Yes, despite the worst opening sentence in the history of this blog, I am taking the “Atlanta Dream” tonight. It always gets talked about how streakers opinion does not matter, and for the most part it really doesn’t but this game has a lot of contrarian themes running through it that make it possible that -260 understates the actual chance. Atlanta has a worse record, is at home, seems less popular, and there has been some promising line movement. Again, not a guarantee but the chance of them winning could be slightly higher than the line indicates right now. It’s a small edge if any at -260, but it’s enough to go on at 9.
Molinari -135 v. Fasth
Noren -105 v. Dodd
Oliver Fisher +100 v. Pablo Larrazabal
Michael Hoey +105 v. Mark Foster
Seve Benson +100 v. Steve Lowery
GMac v. Dougherty
Kaymer v. Cabrera
Those are currently unlined at the Greek.
It’s been bugging me all day, especially after Karlovic and Roddick won.
Assuming I need 14 more wins to get into the streak 7, there is really not that much difference between a -150(60%) favorite and a -250(around 70%) favorite. If I played all 60% favorites there is a .07% chance I get to 22. Playing all 70% favorites only bumps it up to a .9% chance. Basically unlikely either way, but a small improvement in the odds of going to Bristol by taking 70% favorites.
The question for me now becomes time. If there was two weeks left in the streak, It would probably be the right thing to do to “roll the dice” on 60% favorites.
However, with the Streak session not ending until December there is basically infinity time. I’m sure there will be more Streak promotions/gift picks handed out by the Streakmaster/-250 WNBA favorites, that makes waiting the right call at this point.
I may have lost a few games to some people in the RMMB group today, but I think waiting is the better option right now. Only possibility for tomorrow is the the Atlanta “Whatever they are Calleds” from the WNBA.
Story of my baseball season so far:
As always Groups are a combination of the first lines I see(The Greek) and my numbers. Matchups come straight from the Greek’s lines on head-to-head, and use and a vegas adjustment of my numbers for the spreads and finishing position. Winning total comes straight from last years leaderboard.
Just a heads up, when you send me an entry(to firstname.lastname@example.org)please include your team name, it makes it A LOT easier for me. Thank you.
Should look something like this, which will be my entry for the week:
Team Name: RexfordBuzzsaw
Under-30: Sean O’Hair
Over-40: Michael Allen
Worst Winner: Lucas Glover
Steve Marino -3.5(2)
If your not involved there is plenty of time left considering no one has hit a group winner worth more than 2 points since the PLAYERS. $150 prize to the winner, there may be a second place(READ: Much worse) prize in the works, too. All entries must be in before the first tee time on Thursday.