The BMW EPGA Championship will basically come down to five guys tomorrow after Paul Casey fired another stellar round at Wentworth and extended his lead to three.

It should be interesting though, as Casey is chased by Kjeldsen, Schwartzel, McIlroy and Fisher. I don’t think my 95% chance that one of those players wins is an entirely unreasonable estimate.
It will be interesting to see what Casey opens at. Judging by his odds earlier in the week, I would say Casey to win -200/180.

Noren is even more dead now. This is no longer a good bet in terms of winning the tournament. He does however have a 7% chance to finish in the top-5 by my numbers, so he is not completely dead. His D.J. Trahan impression on number 10 did not help today, but an eagle on 17 was enough to beat Quiros by a stroke and give me the winning day on the golf front.

Back later tonight with any picks(hint: Casey to NOT win) and my PGA Breakdown.


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