Tag Archives: STEVE MARINO

A TWO WEEK HURRICANE

First up, I’d like to introduce Golf Stats. The idea is to use it to put up all my rankings type stuff over there, so it’s well organized and easily searchable. All the “analysis” will go on as usual.

Last week
A Hurricane touched down off the Australian coast, unfortunately it was a lot weaker than anticipated. Elsewhere, Big Shot Bob scored a nice victory in South Africa. Lost a little on the match-ups, but Big Shot Bob carried me through to a winning week. It should be interesting to see going forward how Allenby and Furyk, probably the two best players in the world who haven’t won regularly, react to finally getting a win.

Australian PGA

TOP-20

A lot easier process this week, as Ogilvy is the defending champ and Steve Marino is going off at 45-1. It’s safe to say, though, that there is nothing that happened while Steve was approximately 65-over par last week that really changed how he should be valued.

Match-ups
Hurricane Steve -110 v. Scott Strange(2)
Hurricane Steve -130 v. Marc Leishman(1)
Big Shot Bob +105 v. Adam Scott(1)

You can argue with me that Adam Scott has fully returned to his form from last year that had him ranked in the top-3 of the world. I’ll tell you that Big Shot Bob was a better player round for round in each of the last two years, despite more wins from Adam Scott.

Leishman is still getting too much credit for three good weeks during the FedEx playoffs with that line. Normally wouldn’t care about Strange, but he has won on the European Tour and seemed to be pretty overrated when I last heard his name at the Volvo Match Play.

Dunhill Championship

TOP 20

This event feels like everything would be a force. If I had to narrow it down to one guy, I would say Oliver Fisher, who has some talent, but generally played like garbage this year after a promising 2008. I’d still like to see some signs of life first, or wait for a tournament with some bigger names.

Match-ups
None.

Schwartzel v. Els seems okay, but close enough to a fair line that I’ll pass. Another one that interested me was Cabrera Bello over Molinari, considering the last time I saw him he was dancing around like an idiot at the Omega World Cup. Again, I think that is pushing it for such a weak event. There are better things I can be doing than refreshing this pretty weak scoreboard.

I doubt I’ll get involved with the Shark Shootout, but if I do, I’ll post it tomorrow.

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AUSSIE OPEN

But first a couple of changes to the golf process:
-Outright picks will no longer be posted on the blog, though you can find them in C-ville. The concept of a blog is best suited for thoughts and discussion and too often I feel like the sometimes arbitrary means of picking a winner(see Dubai WC) just gets in the way of that. Instead, I’ll talk about the issues and players that need to be discussed and not worry about fitting it into my all too often meaningless reasons for taking one player over another.

-The Big Shot Bob/Camilo debacle really got me thinking. As my thinking currently stands, I don’t think there is any way that I was wrong in doing that, but I have been proven to be wrong before. So, I’m going to be keeping a much closer eye on the in-running odds. My in tournament process has been far from consistent ranging from don’t bother(minor European events) to go nuts(Dubai WC). The idea is to change that. I don’t expect this to effect the amount of in-running action(very minimal) in the short term, but it should be pretty enlightening by midway through next season.

I’ve also debated do I need to keep losing on individual round plays? I’ve made plenty of mistakes on them, but I’m not sure banning myself from playing them is the right call. The plan is to step down the risk level to .5 units for the time being. Hopefully this keeps me paying attention and limits the risk from the wild variance that occurs over 18 holes of golf.

Last Week
Omega World Cup- The USA(16-1) was marginal at best, but, you don’t get many chances to be patriotic in international golf. Though a -10 in alternate shot was probably the best round of the tournament, they did record a triple bogey in best ball. Good work, boys. The Swedes(+105)with their two better players had a pretty easy time with the English. I only wish I added Sweden +105 over Tiger’s rear windshield as well.

Aussie Open
I keep hearing two things about this tournament: A) The New South Wales course is really hard and B) It’s going to be windy. The fact that the course is hard and applies to everyone does not change my thinking at all. Neither does the wind. Now the wind may be a factor, but I am certainly not going to try and guess who is good in the wind on the off chance that some random local news forecaster half the world away actually got it right. As always, I’m looking for someone who is underrated based on their overall level of play.

Geoff Ogilvy: You have to put him being the top-line favorite as a serious question mark, but he is legitimately the best player in the field. He’s not exactly tearing it up lately either with a poor finish in the Aussie Masters and people seem to have forgotten the hot start at the beginning of 2009. There are a lot of players in this field that I don’t have 40 rounds on, but if my estimation is as accurate as it appears based on the Vegas line then 9-1 is a generous price for the only real world class player in the field.

Steve Marino: Marino is debateably world class, although it would be nice to see him show up on Sunday for once. You got to be careful with Marino, because like Noren he has a tendency of popping up on more people’s radars than you think, but considering it’s been awhile since he had a good(not a win) on the PGA Tour and his last start was a poor showing in China, I think he is back to being under-rated Steve.

Match-ups:
Nada. Aren’t enough good players here to have someone worth fading.

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JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE OPEN

Field:
Michael Sim: Not playing.

Steve Marino: ridiculously priced at 40-1.

Anthony Kim: If Kim came in drunk at 4am in San Francisco, a weekend on the Vegas strip opens up all kind of possibilities.

Rest of the Field: Not sure why people are bashing this event, it has a much stronger field than I remember last year.

That left me with two options: Nicholas Thompson and D.J. Trahan.

Thompson was easy to throw out, because he really isn’t all that good, though he does have some potential and the ability to go low, and he played very well last time out at Turning Stone. I’m not about to say he can have two good showings in a row.

That leaves DJ. Fine. Trahan won a few years back at similar birdie fest at the Hope, and has played below his 2008 performance this year. On the other hand, D.J. is another one that is probably more likely to be arrested with two show girls, a dead hooker and lots of crack in his hotel room this weekend than actually win this event.

D.J. to win +9000(.1)
D.J. top-5 +1800(.52)

Match-ups:
Steve Marino +120 v. Nick Watney(1)
Simply put, there is not that much difference between these two players.

Mathew Goggin +105 v. Marc Leishman(1)
Not going to pass this up especially with Goggin’s gritty play last time out. I may be off base here, but WDing after a 78 is not enough for me to think the difference between these players has shifted 15 cents.

Johnson Wagner +100 v. Lief Olson(1)
Kind of pulled this one out of thin air, but Lief fits the bill for a fade as a garbage player coming off one hot finish last week. Can’t say this is the most contrarian, but my numbers have done pretty well lately when there is a huge disparity in skill level/price.

No round plays for now, I’ll wait until later for that.

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BOMBS AWAY ON KP

I’m not really sure about this right now so It’s only going to be a double, but I’m pretty sure with two more years experience(on my part) this KP situation would be a personal max. HE HAS A TWO SHOT LEAD. Even matched up with Tiger that is a lot on the PGA Tour. After Tiger, no one is within four shots of Kenny. I’m not sure how +265 makes sense at all.

Kenny Perry to win +265(2)
Steve Marino +140 v. Paddy(1)

Marino on principle.

Nothing on the Vivendi trophy is worth playing. Stenson +110 would be okay if he didn’t win the players and isn’t giving up the upside factor to McIlroy. MAJ is in a similar boat against Fisher. Karlsson +140 is tempting, but I’d like to have a better idea about how his injury affects his ability before taking that. LETS GO MOLINARI

TC ODDS:
tc3

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WHO?

If you haven’t noticed yet, I’m arbitrarily breaking down the field into related groups switching my rankings around a little so I can talk about related players and calling that “ranking.” To be honest, if you take out Tiger and the first 5 guys I talked about, there isn’t much difference between the rest of the field.

20. Brian Gay
How he got here: Guess I should have included Gay in the last post, but that’s what happens when I hastily make a rankings list of golfers as I go. Gay won twice on Tour this year, and quite dominantly, but also threw together a stretch of only one finish in the top-20 since his win in Memphis.

East Lake Prediction: Gay is not really a long hitter, which shouldn’t be a problem at East Lake and if he is on top of his game he can certainly play as well as anyone, but he has shown nothing lately to prove that he is on top of his game(not normally a concern) and there is nothing to indicate he is abnormally underrated(a concern), so I’ll say bottom half for Gay.
Line to win: 90-1

19. John Senden
How he got here: By hitting a ton of greens. Senden has hit more greens than anyone else on tour this year, although I’d probably say Tiger is best against the average player simply because he hits a lot of greens in harder than average tournaments. Senden’s high GIR percentage is not exactly out of the ordinary either has he hasn’t finished outside the top-10 in the last four years.

East Lake Prediction: Senden has played quite well recently and hits a lot of greens, which is always a good sign for me. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Senden contend at East Lake, but I get the feeling that he is playing over his head right now and there are definitely better options out there.
Line to win: 90-1

18. Steve Marino
How he got here: By being awesome, of course. Steve has a remarkable habit of playing like Tiger Woods on Thursday and Greg Norman in the final round of the Masters on Sunday.

East Lake Prediction: Marino will follow a course record 59 on Thursday with four straight rounds over par, then loses the tournament and the FedEx cup with a five putt on the 72nd hole.
Line to win: 80-1

17. Kevin Na
How he got here: Quite anonymously. Na has moved into the 60th spot in the OWGR’s after posting 9 top ten finishes in 25 appearances on Tour this year. Na is one of the rising stars that people haven’t really heard of and is having his best year so far.

East Lake Prediction: At some point, Na will have to breakthrough against a top field. I’m not sure East Lake is the time, though. For one, he seems to be too hot for my liking with three finishes of 25-18-11 in the Playoffs. Na could contend here, but I like him at other courses better.
Line to win: 75-1

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THE HORSE WAS NAMED “THURSDAY”

For those of you wondering, that’s the answer to the riddle: Steve Marino rode into a golf tournament on Thursday, contended for three days then left on Thursday. How did he do it?

The ODDS:
bmw1
Tiger basically played an average round today(for him) so it is no surprise that his chance to win remains about the same.

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BMW AND MERCEDES-BENZ CHAMPIONSHIPS

Is it just me or is it mildly confusing remembering which tournament is on which tour this week. Probably because the PGA Tour has a Mercedes-Benz Championship and the European Tour has a BMW Championship.

Europe:
The Alex Noren saga came to a successful end last week and it quickly became apparent that he is no longer value at minor European events considering he opened at roughly 30-1. So I set out to locate the next Alex Noren.

The criteria that made Noren so impressive to me was a combination of underrated, legitimately good, hits a lot of greens, looks like he can’t putt, was young enough to get better and had underperformed in 2009. I think that’s still a good way to go, so here is the list I came up with:

Charl Schwartzel
Chris Wood
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano
Louis Oosthuizen
Thomas Aiken
Pablo Larrazabal
Alvaro Quiros

Wood and Schwartzel are too hot/too well known for me right now.

While I like the huge talent of Quiros, he has played better in 09 than his two year average, although at his age it is likely part of natural improvement. He has surfaced on people’s radars too, with some decent US performances.

GFC has played much better in 09 than 08 as well, although he has not been as good lately as he was earlier in Asia. Aiken has made dramatic improvements this year, too, and so had Oosthuizen. I wouldn’t say any of these players are out of the norm for a player with decent talent through his mid to late 20s, but it still doesn’t make them as solid as Noren was.

That leaves Larrazabal, as the lone player on the list who has been significantly worse than in 2008. The problem is that A) he wasn’t all that good in 2008 and B) he had a win to show for it. Those are pretty big strikes against him, that Noren didn’t have. I guess the wait for Noren’s heir apparent will have to continue.

If you put a gun to my head, I’d probably take Aiken or Rod Pampling this week, but I don’t see any guns near me so I’ll just pass.

+EV:
mercbenz
Mythically speaking, that risks 3,219 dollars to win 10,000 if anyone of those players wins.

Match-ups:
The only one I considered playing was Pampling +105 v. Quiros, which is justifiable based on the last almost 2 years, but going forward Quiros will probably be the better player. Molinari -125 is somewhat appealing if I still didn’t like Alex and my funds were getting kind of low at the Greek.

PGA:
Leans-wise, this was my list, in no particular order.

Tiger Woods
Camilo Villegas
Luke Donald
Anthony Kim

Those names probably sound familar, right?

The biggest problem here is that Tiger at +200 is way too generous of a price for his course history at Cog Hill and his overall ability. Tiger was +200 at Liberty National, on a course he had no history on and with more players. Makes a small difference. Because of the smaller field Tiger is actually more likely to win this regardless of history at a course. Everything here that I normally look for points directly to Tiger being a play, besides one good round Sunday and the fact that it is Tiger. As strongly as I felt after Bridgestone that Tiger would eventually start missing putts, I feel equally strongly now that he will once again start making them. I’m going to call this one a game-time decision.

My next best look would probably be Luke Donald. I’m going to pass, although this might be a play if I had the creativity and command of British English to work in Donald’s hometown advantage(NW Grad) and purple patch into my reasoning.

For some reason, I’d rather root for AK to play horribly the rest of the season and then back him at the start of next year. So, I’ll do that.

I am becoming more and more convinced that the juice in Golf tournaments is stacked against maybe 15 players in the field and then everyone else is more or less fairly valued. Sure I have a small edge with Camilo and AK against the field, but I have questions about Tiger and have to deal with a whole lot of other players. Why would I want to take Camilo as an outright, when I could do this:

Camilo Villegas top-ROW +1400(.67)
Robert Allenby top-ROW +1600(.6)

If you asked me to list my top-5 overrated players Yang, Els, Goosen, Cabrera are probably in that list. Throw in Ogilvy as well and I get to take 2 guys I like while isolating most of the overrated players and not dealing with Tiger.

P.S., I realize Villegas is the defending champ, but I’m not scared about this, because it seems that no one is picking him, it is a different course and the FedEx cup has drawn people’s attention to recent play more than what happened last year.

Match-ups:
Tiger to win +200(1)
Camilo Villegas -110 v. Brandt Snedeker(1)
Anthony Kim -115 v. Jerry Kelly(1)
Luke Donald -110 v. Lucas Glover(1)
Robert Allenby -110 v. Y.E. Yang(1)
Steve Marino -115 v. Y.E. Yang(1)
Lucas Glover -105 v. Angel Cabrera(1)

Villegas, Kim, Donald, and both Yang fades took me under 10 seconds each to decide that was the right decision. Just screwy offerings from the Greek, and all obvious sides. Kim is the only one that hasn’t moved in my favor(still -115), but honestly Allenby(-125), probably Villegas(-120) and Donald(-115) are still worth playing.

All in all, I would rather have Kim, Allenby and Donald for doubles at the original price, but I’m not going to add on and I’m pretty pleased with this card.

No first rounders, but I’ll be around this week for the possibility of in-running and later round bets, plus the always popular running odds posts. Good luck.

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