What the Hell is going on?
I love when organizations like the PGA Tour come up with their own gimmick competitions, don’t define clearly what their purpose is, then change the scoring system every year. As a result, I literally have no idea what the FedEx Cup is supposed to reward.
I know the first two years, people complained that it was over before the Tour Championship, but if it is a measure of a whole season of play then Tiger should run away with it every year he is healthy. If it is a measure of 4 tournaments, then a player with 2 wins should run away with it as well. I think the PGA Tour should define what they want this exactly to achieve, before I start looking at is more than just 4 good fields in a row.
The leans this week were Steve “Undeniably Awesome” Marino and Sergio Garcia. Vegas however caught up to their good play and put out some ridiculous prices on them, so they were no-gos. That turned out to be okay because one of my Top-10 to watch turned out to have a very generous price. So, I went with Anthony Kim. Noren has a pretty tight price, but my numbers show +EV and I obviously think there is a ton of potential going forward there.
Anthony Kim to win +8500(.23)
Alex Noren to win +3500(.28)
Alex Noren top-5 +600(.7)
My numbers say still value on Noren at 6-1 top-5, but not on the Kim top-5. That guarantees a 3rd place finish from AK.
Aaron Baddeley +110 v. Chris Riley(1)
Aaron Baddeley +150 v. Chris Riley(1)
Sean O’Hair +110 v. Dustin Johnson(1)
Charlie Wi +100 v. Chris Riley (1)
Tiger Woods to win +205(1)
It just so happened that Aaron Baddeley was on one of my ten players to watch list as I was working it up over the weekend. Then 5dimes matched him up against Chris Riley who is riding a nice purple patch if you will. 4 straight finishes in the top-20 are good for the player who might have the worst swing on the PGA Tour, but lets not forget, they all came against relatively weak fields, except maybe Canada. Anyway, this is usually the line that moves towards my numbers(-114/114 to Badds) so I put the first half in early. Then, they dared me by jumping the line up to +150. Sold. Pretty much the same logic on Wi as Badds.
Dustin Johnson and Sean O’Hair seem to be pretty similar, as they have both made similar improvements in their play this year over last year. The problem is, O’Hair has been better overall in both years and in the total average. The past month or so is the only justification I can see for this line, so O’Hair it is.
Finally, +205 was enough to tempt me into Tiger. I think he has definitely underperformed this season, he should improve and people are being a little too unfair for the loss at the PGA. This doesn’t mean anything at all, but since Tiger said he was finally starting to getting around to feeling good enough to put in enough practice time at Jack’s Tournament he has played at -1.25 standard deviations better than the field, which would be a way better price than +205.
Aaron Baddeley +105 v. Riley(1)
Aaron Baddeley +145 v. Riley(1)
Sean O’Hair +105 v. Dustin Johnson(1)
Jason Day/Bob Estes -122 v. Padraig Harrington(1)
Alex Noren -110 v. Danny Lee(2)
Rare is it that I go to a European Tour event for a round play, but I feel quite strongly about Noren over Lee. Sure Lee has upside, but so does Noren and as an Amateur Champ, Euro Champ Lee gets WAY more attention than Noren. If you ask me, there is no way Lee is even close to Noren as an overall player right now.
I had to fade Padraig in some way, as I think he is the most overrated player in the field. Even going back to last year his two major championships were only good enough to be about the 8th best player in the world. Obviously, he has been much worse this season. The other options I saw were with Tiger and Mickelson, no thanks.
Team Name: Rexfordbuzzsaw
Played in: David Mathis
On the Bubble: Aaron Baddeley
2-11: Sean O’Hair