This week has the potential to be hilariously funny. When Noren and Wilson win, and I lose money overall in the matchplay event all I can do is laugh.
For all the talk about Tiger, there were actually some decent matchups yesterday and Today. Ogilvy/Villegas, Cink/Mickelson Els/Donald are some pretty decent matchups. Today, Ogilvy/ McIlroy will be worth watching, as well as Cink/Els.
I messed up on the chart, Casey is not -255, but -155. The projected edge is -.05ish.
Fisher to win WGC-Match Play +865(.41)
O’Hair +150 over Casey(2)
Stewart Cink +120 over Els(2)
Ross Fisher +100(2)
Fisher is obviously the right way to go. He has proved over the past three days that he deserves to be considered among the games’ 25 or so best. I don’t think I am too crazy when I say Fisher is one of the three best players remaining in the field.
O’Hair and Cink are slam dunk picks. Casey is getting lots of attention for mauling some mediocre players, and winning in the European Desert series earlier this year. Cink has probably been a better player over a 1 year span than Els, but people love the Els.
McIlroy is a possibility, going up against the world’s greatest Match Play player. Why is no one respecting Stewart’s history here, while they are all over Ogilvy’s?
Put in O’Hair and Cink last night as well as Fisher. Waiting on McIlroy. My instinct last night said McIlroy floats up a bit and Fisher holds the same. Fisher randomly dropped to +100 at 5dimes when I got home from the bar.
How does a play go from borderline to double? When the line shifts from -115 to 100. Normally this would scare me off, but given my opinion of Fisher(newest golf crush) and when I placed this(somewhat drunk), Fisher was -110 at Pinnacle, -115 at The Greek and Bookmaker, this is a double.
I put the O’Hair play and Cink in very early. Basically once my sims were done about 8:30 last night. I wouldn’t play Cink less than +120 for a double. I think +110 is the limit for him. O’Hair has some more latitude. I think you play that one, down to +130 as a single. Fisher is questionable if you are laying juice. -105 may be acceptable but wait for that line to drift up a bit before you make a play.