ACCENTURE MATCH PLAY: ELITE 8

This week has the potential to be hilariously funny. When Noren and Wilson win, and I lose money overall in the matchplay event all I can do is laugh.

For all the talk about Tiger, there were actually some decent matchups yesterday and Today. Ogilvy/Villegas, Cink/Mickelson Els/Donald are some pretty decent matchups. Today, Ogilvy/ McIlroy will be worth watching, as well as Cink/Els.
THE ODDS

I messed up on the chart, Casey is not -255, but -155. The projected edge is -.05ish.

THE PICKS
Fisher to win WGC-Match Play +865(.41)
O’Hair +150 over Casey(2)
Stewart Cink +120 over Els(2)
Ross Fisher +100(2)

Fisher is obviously the right way to go. He has proved over the past three days that he deserves to be considered among the games’ 25 or so best. I don’t think I am too crazy when I say Fisher is one of the three best players remaining in the field.

O’Hair and Cink are slam dunk picks. Casey is getting lots of attention for mauling some mediocre players, and winning in the European Desert series earlier this year. Cink has probably been a better player over a 1 year span than Els, but people love the Els.

McIlroy is a possibility, going up against the world’s greatest Match Play player. Why is no one respecting Stewart’s history here, while they are all over Ogilvy’s?

Put in O’Hair and Cink last night as well as Fisher. Waiting on McIlroy. My instinct last night said McIlroy floats up a bit and Fisher holds the same. Fisher randomly dropped to +100 at 5dimes when I got home from the bar.

How does a play go from borderline to double? When the line shifts from -115 to 100. Normally this would scare me off, but given my opinion of Fisher(newest golf crush) and when I placed this(somewhat drunk), Fisher was -110 at Pinnacle, -115 at The Greek and Bookmaker, this is a double.

I put the O’Hair play and Cink in very early. Basically once my sims were done about 8:30 last night. I wouldn’t play Cink less than +120 for a double. I think +110 is the limit for him. O’Hair has some more latitude. I think you play that one, down to +130 as a single. Fisher is questionable if you are laying juice. -105 may be acceptable but wait for that line to drift up a bit before you make a play.

GUESSING GOLF ODDS: ELITE 8

This could be a bit of an adventure with matches still on the course, but I always enjoy looking ahead.(Probably so I can forget the results of the past) Leans are bolded.

SNEAD

Ross Fisher -115/ Oliver Wilson -105
Ross Fisher -105/ Justin Leonard -115

PLAYER

Paul Casey -135/ Ian Poulter +115
Paul Casey -150/ Sean O’Hair +130

JONES

Geoff Ogilvy -113/Rory McIlroy -107
Camilo Villegas -120/Rory McIlory 100

HOGAN

Ernie Els -120/ Stewart Cink +100
Phil Mickelson -130/ Ernie Els +110

I think that was all reasonable possibilities. Odds post should up later tonight or tomorrow morning depending on when the matches start tomorrow.

3RD ROUND PICKS

Because the first two have gone so well:

Ross Fisher +125(2)
Sean O’Hair +120(2)
Hansen +169(2)
Oliver Wilson +110(2)
Ogilvy +109(1)

Still considering Cink, McIlroy and adding on to Sean O’Hair.

When there are only 8 matches things like this start to happen:

Adding,
Sean O’Hair +115(1)
Fisher +136(1)
Cink +126(1)
Hanson +168(1)

I thought about this and I just coudn’t justify making on a 4 play over the any of the other three, so I decided to make them all 3 plays.

IN-RUNNING WORLD MATCH PLAY

Golf has been almost a complete disastor for me this year. I am down close to 15 units through yesterday’s action. On top of that, either Noren or Fraser is going to win this week.

This week has been a small example of my season to date. Schwartzel, Westwood, Katayama were all extremely close/should have won and just couldn’t get the job done. I am 0-4 this week when a match has proceeded to the first tee for the second time.

In related news, I am 1-5 this week when my outright picks have proceeded to the first tee.

A short term view would say I am completely wrong. I don’t think this is true. I refuse to believe Ian Poulter, Charley Hoffman, Davis Love III and Dustin Johnson have value. All that is happening right now is I am getting better odds for future events on these guys. The Golf season is only two months old and their will be plenty of time to make back some of this cash. Especially if a few breaks start falling my way.

On to the ODDS:
18,568 simulations provided from spreadsheet provided by XLSSPORTS. Why 18,568? I got restless and ended it early

THE BRACKET:

Hansen didn’t stick out in my first look thru, but geez, that is pretty blatantly obvious. Sean O’Hair is a gimme as well. Fisher and Wilson look pretty good. Ogilvy is growing on me by the minute. I think I might take the appropriate portion of Wilson funds from today’s win and use them in a rolling outright situation like I had planned to do with Charl and Lee.

Picks up tommorrow morning.

ROUND 2 PICKS

Shingo +205 over Ogilvy (1)
MAJ +145 over Camilo(2)
Schwartzel +144 over Poulter (2)
Fisher +101 over Perez(1)
Wilson +168 over Kim(2)
Kaymer +105 over Fuyrk(1)
Westwood -120 over Cink(1)

ODDS: Based on 20,000 simulations. Simulation from XLS SPORTS

UPDATED BRACKET.

HOUSE KEEPING

I made this pick during the live Blog:

Noren +100 over Jaidee(1): It was posted their with a timestamp, don’t worry. Noren currently has a 1 shot lead.

For Mayacoba:

GFC +3550(.27)
GFC +800 (1.11)

I’m too tired to bang out his full name which I have already messed up on one occasion tonight.

WGC LIVE BLOG

WGC-ACCENTURE MATCH PLAY DEGENERATE LIVE BLOG