It is ridiculous the rate at which the Monday Night Totals have gone over this year. Through last night’s game the over is 13-2 on Monday nights this season.
The average MNF game has gone over the the total by 11.8 points. Only Washington-Pittsburgh and Houston-Jacksonville stayed under this season.
This is a ridiculous trend. These individual games obviously have no relationship to each other and there is no correlation between Monday night and over.
It was just crazy to see two good defenses, 8th and 3rd in DVOA, get run all over last night at the game went flying past 40. Oh well.
Photo from AP/Marcio Jose Sanchez
Looking on to next week:
Baltimore -1 v Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh is going to get a lot of action because of their 4 o’clock national TV against the Cowboys. Nevermind that they were outgained 289-238. Romo’s 3 picks really saved the Steelers. If Flacco doesn’t turn the ball over the Ravens should definitely compete here. The one drawback for the Ravens, in my opinion is they are coming off a dominant win against the Skins in primetime. The redskins are not very good.
Colts +16.5 v. Lions: Haha ESPN pigskin pick’em mixed up this line. I think I’ll be taking the colts. In actuality though, the Lions are my lean.
Houston +3.5 v Tennessee: Houston is really a much better team with Sage Rosenfels sitting on the bench. I may be a little over excited about this considering Houston has played pretty well the last few weeks.
San Francisco +6.5 @ Miami: San Fran has been pretty good the past couple of weeks as well. I am always happy to look on the other side when an AFC East team is involved. To have three teams tied at 8-5 is a joke. Maybe one of those teams is in the top half of the league.
Oakland +7.5 v New England: The patriots are just not a good football team. It’s probably not all their fault, They have been killed with injuries. It’s okay though, Wes Welker tries really hard.
Cleveland +14.5 @ Eagles: What a terrible Monday Night Football game. You should probably mark down the over, though.
Photo from AP/Michael Conroy
San Francisco +5(2)
Filed under 49ERS, NFL, seahawks
My NFL Pigskin Pick’em picks have improved the past couple of weeks, but I am still nowhere near where I feel that I should be.
SUPER CRAZY INSANE DOUBLE STONE COLD LOCK OF THE YEAR!!!!!!
San Francisco +4.5: This line combines the dangerous elements of elements of against the public, home dog, what I think is an overrated team, a team I hate, a QB that the media slobbers all over. Yikes. This has the potential to be one of my biggest picks of the year. The only thing that is missing is the Jets covering the spread by 57 points in their last game, UNC basketball style.
FO’s DVOA has the Jets as the 19th best offense(8th running, 19th passing) part of the reason they are ranked so low is that site’s belief that the running game is far less valuable than the passing game. I doubt many people would say the Jets(ran by the greatest quaterback/person/minor deity to ever walk the face of the earth) is only the 19th best in the league
IS IT A PROBLEM IF I HAVE ANOTHER SUPER CRAZY INSANE DOUBLE STONE COLD LOCK OF THE YEAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Seattle +3.5: Vegas has no respect for the AFC EAST. The reason: The conference is filled with a bunch of mediocre teams, who inflated their records with incredibly easy schedules. The AFC EAST teams are ranked 14th, 18th, 21st and 25th in DVOA(NYJ, Miami, New England, Buffalo). Oh yeah, The division has played 4 out of the 5 easiest schedules in the League.
SORRY TO DISAPPOINT YOU BUT THESE ARE ONLY GAMES I FEEL STRONGLY ABOUT
I WILL REGRET THIS WHEN THE REDSKINS COVER
If you missed it, The Titans won last night 31-21 over the Colts and are still the leagues only Undefeated team.
Also, There was this:
Great Rant by Mr. Singletary there, but it raises the question, would you rather have guys that play for the team or guys that produce. As annoying as T.O. is, you must admit that his production is very valuable to the team. Jimmy Johnson was famous for letting his star players get away with things that regular guys couldn’t in Dallas. Unfortunatley, for Nate Newton, the Louisiana State Police were not as leniant.
However, the 49ers are lucky enough to not have this problem. Davis only has 16 catches for 196 yards and no touchdowns, on the season. Seems like an easy decision for Singletary.
ON TO WEEK 9:
Miami +3@ Denver: Love this Game. Maybe too much.
Oakland +3 v. Atlanta: Ditto
Washington -1 v. Pittsburgh: I’m sure you’ll hear this a lot this week. But the winner of the Redskins last home game before and election has been a pretty good predictor of who will win the election. If the Skins win, it’s the incumbent party, If the away team wins, the incumbents lose.
KC, Cincy and St. Louis could all develop into good options, but those games will definitely require some more research.