TIGER WOODS ODDS CHECK

Ever since I heard the rumor that Tiger fired a 62 in a practice round this week I wondered if people are ready to proclaim him back?

Here’s a look at Tiger’s prices compared to my average strokes ranking dating back to the Masters:

Tournament

Tour

Field – Z

ROI

WGC-Cadillac Champ

P

-0.572

$1.41

API

P

-0.756

$1.04

Masters

M

-0.647

$1.00

WGC-Bridgestone

P

-0.492

$1.53

PGA Championship

M

-0.637

$1.44

Frys.com Open

P

-0.606

$0.60

At first I thought the market might really think Tiger was back. Then I realized there are two things to consider:

-Tiger’s 2009 playoff run (T2, 11, Win, 2) against strong fields, which were counted at the PGA Championship, are no longer in my two-year rankings. Given Tiger’s current play those don’t seem to relevant anymore.

-Tiger is by far the biggest name in this tournament. He probably still was at the PGA Championship, but at least the likes of Westwood, Donald, McIlroy, Mickelson, etc. I can’t see a ton of people jumping on Spencer Levin with the same enthusiasm.

Predictably, the matchups market is probably a better predictor.

Tournament

Player

Adj Win %

Adj -Z

Win %

Diff %

Opponent

PGA Champ.

Tiger Woods

42.89%

-0.736

68.00%

25.11%

Martin Kaymer

PGA Champ.

Tiger Woods

34.35%

-0.736

57.76%

23.41%

Rory McIlroy

PGA Champ.

Tiger Woods

45.73%

-0.736

64.52%

18.80%

Phil Mickelson

PGA Champ.

Tiger Woods

38.13%

-0.736

70.79%

32.66%

Adam Scott

Frys.com Open

Tiger Woods

57.98%

-0.662

73.31%

15.33%

Spencer Levin

Frys.com Open

Tiger Woods

63.92%

-0.662

99.00%

35.08%

Patrick Cantlay

It’s hard to tell because I really don’t have a good generic estimator for Patrick Cantlay. The top-7 college players from last year based on Golfweek’s rankings have played 85 rounds on the PGA Tour and are slightly better than the average pro. That would make Tiger about 90% to beat Cantlay on the Adj-Z, not 99%. Still, that’s way too high, and I think a good indicator that people aren’t quite convinced that Tiger is back yet.

I came up with about 11-1 to win this week.

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