MY RANKINGS AND THE PRESIDENTS CUP

We’ll start with the US Team:

Blue text means they are currently on the team by points. Red means 11-12 spots on the rankings. Avg is from my rankings, Rnk is total rank against all eligible players (>40 rounds in last two years) and rds is rounds played.

   

2-Year

2011

Rnk

Player

AVG

Rnk

Rds

AVG

Rnk

Rds

1

Steve Stricker

-0.689

2

149

-0.700

2

69

2

Matt Kuchar

-0.641

4

188

-0.628

4

83

3

Phil Mickelson

-0.542

6

174

-0.482

12

80

4

Tiger Woods

-0.541

7

95

-0.414

23

26

5

Nick Watney

-0.507

8

175

-0.605

6

69

6

Dustin Johnson

-0.431

11

173

-0.402

27

79

7

Jim Furyk

-0.420

15

168

-0.268

45

82

8

Bo Van Pelt

-0.418

16

200

-0.391

28

84

9

Zach Johnson

-0.405

21

179

-0.465

14

76

10

Hunter Mahan

-0.403

22

185

-0.480

13

85

11

David Toms

-0.375

25

169

-0.517

9

72

12

Bill Haas

-0.374

26

193

-0.403

26

88

13

Ryan Moore

-0.372

27

166

-0.369

31

73

14

Charles Howell III

-0.358

29

213

-0.449

16

98

15

Rickie Fowler

-0.341

31

205

-0.446

18

79

16

Brandt Snedeker

-0.339

32

180

-0.415

22

79

17

Webb Simpson

-0.339

33

196

-0.639

3

86

18

J.B. Holmes

-0.332

34

163

-0.290

40

53

19

Bubba Watson

-0.332

35

160

-0.327

35

81

20

Ben Crane

-0.309

39

165

-0.142

98

63

 

It’s hard to argue that Tiger is not an easy captains pick for Couples. He’s been pretty bad this season, but still better than marginals Bo Van Pelt, Bill Haas and only a few fractions of a stroke worse than Brandt Snedeker. Zach Johnson would be the only player, at this point, I think you could debate with Tiger. He’s got a strong history and is having a great year.

If I was the captain, based on what I have, I’d lock Zach Johnson and Tiger Woods into the picks and be pretty happy with that. Bo Van Pelt can make a strong case, but as long as he underachieves in the wins category based on his overall skill he seems to perpetually by in the 13th spot between one year flash in the pans like Jeff Overton. Bill Haas is another one that is close, but doesn’t have quite the career that BVP has, although since his dad, Jay, is an assistant captain he will probably get a strong look.

Webb Simpson seems to be the interesting case here. He turned pro in 2008, so to currently have the third best season going is pretty impressive. In college, he was solid, but never ranked higher than 11th in the Sagarin rankings falling in the 20s and 30s his other three seasons.

I have good data on Simpson for four years now, and to have this good of a season in his fourth pro year puts him in the Rory McIlroy, Martin Kaymer, Dustin Johnson group, although his three previous years are way more pedestrian than that group. Better comparisons might be Anthony Kim, who had one season just as good, but has largely been just a very solid young pro and a slightly better Michael Sim. Either way, it will be interesting to see what happens to Webb Simpson.

If I had to pick, I’d say you probably take the top-11 off my list and Rickie Fowler.

International:

   

2-Year

2011

Rnk

Player

AVG

Rnk

Rds

AVG

Rnk

Rds

1

Adam Scott

-0.464

10

151

-0.449

15

55

2

Charl Schwartzel

-0.427

12

209

-0.526

8

74

3

Jason Day

-0.417

17

147

-0.508

10

69

4

K.J. Choi

-0.414

19

171

-0.433

21

71

5

Retief Goosen

-0.410

20

183

-0.283

41

66

6

Tim Clark

-0.398

23

120

-0.408

25

11

7

Robert Allenby

-0.365

28

181

-0.302

38

75

8

Ernie Els

-0.331

36

199

-0.083

124

74

9

Geoff Ogilvy

-0.310

38

148

-0.301

39

62

10

John Senden

-0.269

46

205

-0.357

34

86

11

Vijay Singh

-0.267

47

149

-0.236

56

73

12

Brendon de Jonge

-0.234

53

227

-0.250

51

99

13

Louis Oosthuizen

-0.231

55

162

-0.026

147

59

14

Richard Green

-0.219

57

139

-0.227

60

45

15

Angel Cabrera

-0.219

58

120

-0.185

77

45

16

Kyung-Tae Kim

-0.218

59

47

-0.245

53

32

17

Y.E. Yang

-0.214

60

177

-0.304

37

63

18

Aaron Baddeley

-0.154

84

181

-0.364

33

73

19

Rory Sabbatini

-0.172

80

187

-0.257

48

83

20

Camilo Villegas

-0.170

81

173

-0.048

137

69

Ryo Ishikawa

0.001

170

67

0.019

169

26

The International team is a disaster. Ryo Ishikawa is the 170th best golfer in the world based on what he’s done on the PGA Tour and European Tours. There could be some randomness in there, but it’s hard to argue that the smaller tours (Yes, Euro included) inflate the rankings for players playing well above the field average of that tour and piling up lots of wins. I’d would assume that the Japanese Tour average pro is worse than the Nationwide Tour average pro, which means that Ryo is probably about the equivalent of Rory McIlroy playing against the Japanese. Unfortunately, that has yet to translate.

Tim Clark is injured, hence the red, so a solid International option is unlikely to play.

Based on who is already on the team, Allenby and Singh are probably the best options, but the Internationals are not close to as deep in the 10-20th best option spots as the United States. John Senden could be an attractive option in his home country and having the fifth best year of anyone on this list, but he won’t be on anyone’s radar. I’d assume Aaron Baddeley is probably more of realistic option with a better history than John Senden if Greg Norman is looking for the home country advantage.

Again, if I had to pick, I’d say top-11 plus Baddeley is the way to go.

Not sure it really matters though, as the US Team 1-20 is much stronger:

 

2-Year

2011

Player

AVG

Rnk

Rds

AVG

Rnk

Rds

US Average

-0.418

21.2

174.8

-0.446

23.6

75.3

Int’l Average

-0.297

44.2

163.8

-0.289

52.7

64.2

 

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