I found that you can get a pretty good estimate of a golfer’s true performance by comparing my two-year rankings to the Vegas Lines for the week. The “market” is pretty good at factoring in stuff that I don’t, like recent performance or course history or whatever else matters. So here’s a look at players that “the market” really likes this week:
Rory has probably established himself as the best young player right now with his major win at Congressional. That being said, there is no proof he is Tiger Woods, just yet. He’s more like a Sergio Garcia with a really good week in a major. That’s not bad and if you take Tiger out of the picture there will probably be a time he is the best golfer in the world. He is not a Tiger-like phenom, however. That being said, Rory is No. 3 in the world in play in just majors since 2010. He definitely has the type of game to win this week, just not sure the level he has played at majors is sustainable for him right now based on his full body of work.
Odds to win: Between 20-1 and 13-1.
You could probably make just as good a case that Kim will never live up to the talent that he has been hyped to as you could that he will. So far, it’s been an inconsistent career for Kim. At times he has looked like one of the five best players on tour and other times he has looked just average. Only 8 players (can you guess them) have been better than Kim in the last seven majors, however.
Odds to win: Between 130-1 and 85-1.
Scott has had a pretty remarkable career in that he was very good at a young age, stayed pretty good, had one terrible year and now is back like it never happened before. Since that terrible year was 2009, it is included in my rankings. That’s probably a pretty good reason I’m low on him. Another reason is Steve Williams guided him to a win last week. Scott is a pretty rare talent when you think about how long he has been good for, so there aren’t many players who should be ahead of him this week.
Odds to win: Between 45-1 and 25-1.
Between calling Rickie Fowler overrated and being blinded by his obnoxious shirts, it’s easy to overlook how good he has been this season.for someone going on 23. Fowler has played well in majors, too, but it’s hard not to think about Kim and Garcia and Scott when projecting Rickie into multiple majors and unlimited golf skill
Odds to win: Between 50-1 and 30-1.
He hits it a mile and he’s won this year, so I guess he’s going to be good right? I’d say he’s the leader in the clubhouse for the Jeff Overton (How’s he doing by the way compared to say… Bo Van Pelt?) Memorial Don’t Deserve to represent the US in an International Competition Award
Odds to win: Between 150-1 and 100-1.
Ryo gets a lot of hype and maybe his performance on the Japanese Tour is legendary, but outside of Japan he hasn’t really lived up to the expectations. He’s still super young, but I’m not sure how much potential there is for a guy that can putt the lights out, but hasn’t figured out the ball-striking quite yet. This is almost completely opposite of every other great young player.
Odds to win: Between 200-1 and 150-1.
I guess we need one random surprise in this group, too. Bjorn is not “Bjorn” in America, so I guess he’s got that going for him. Otherwise, I can’t figure out what people like about him this week, but based on his price I would expect him to play above his average. Of course, that could be finishing T-30 and never contending.
Odds to win: Between 500-1 and 300-1.