2011 BRITISH OPEN

I made a Google Doc with some relevant odds for the week based on my sim.

You can find it HERE

Player

total wins

odds

vegas

winning

Lee Westwood

7.39%

1254

985

$0.80

Luke Donald

5.51%

1714

985

$0.60

Rory McIlroy

5.06%

1875

700

$0.41

Steve Stricker

4.11%

2334

3300

$1.40

Martin Kaymer

3.55%

2717

2700

$0.99

Matt Kuchar

3.25%

2973

4000

$1.33

Nick Watney

2.78%

3500

3300

$0.94

Graeme McDowell

2.56%

3800

3200

$0.85

Phil Mickelson

2.42%

4025

4600

$1.14

Retief Goosen

2.16%

4534

4600

$1.01

Padraig Harrington

2.08%

4719

4200

$0.89

Jason Day

1.98%

4953

3600

$0.73

Sergio Garcia

1.88%

5222

3000

$0.58

Justin Rose

1.85%

5305

5000

$0.94

Charl Schwartzel

1.83%

5361

3800

$0.71

Dustin Johnson

1.83%

5376

8000

$1.48

K.J. Choi

1.77%

5537

5000

$0.90

Paul Casey

1.57%

6253

9500

$1.51

Adam Scott

1.46%

6763

7000

$1.03

Hunter Mahan

1.44%

6864

10000

$1.45

Ian Poulter

1.31%

7528

6000

$0.80

Steve Stricker

I don’t think there is any good reason why Stricker can’t win this week. Sure he’s getting older, but he’s still pretty damn good.

Kevin Na

Na would be a certified disaster coming down the stretch of a major championship anywhere near the lead, but his price is pretty ridiculous this week. It’s possible that a still small sample size of players rated that poorly by the books is messing with my adjustment, but as far as I know now, the adjustment I applied is accurate. Worst case for Na should be about 300-1 in my opinion.

Jim Furyk

Furyk has apparently been partying pretty hard on his $10 million FedEx paycheck. He’s mounted an impressive 9 of 12 tournaments this season at worse than his two year average this season. Furyk has four career top-5 finishes at the Open, though he did miss the cut in 2003 at Royal St. Georges.

Bill Haas

There is no better time to get a decent price on a decent American player with a knack for finishing high, but not winning. Haas did win twice last season, however. Speaking of guys with lots of high finishes and not many wins, how about Steve Marino, Bo Van Pelt or Ben Crane?

Matt Kuchar

Kuchar is pretty much the rich man’s Bill Haas. That’s also probably the first time someone has ever made that Comparison.

Dustin Johnson

If you’re noticing a pattern here, it’s that all of the players are American. I think it’s a great week for an American to get a win. I don’t think anyone would peg Johnson for this course, but he’s still a great young player with a lot of talent. While we’re on Johnson what about Ryan Moore, J.B. Holmes or Hunter Mahan? In fact, 34 of the 50 Americans in the field are “+EV” according to my rankings.

I could go for an American flag waving on Sunday just to shut the golf media up.

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1 Comment

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One response to “2011 BRITISH OPEN

  1. TheTMLJ

    “In fact, 34 of the 50 Americans in the field are “+EV” according to my rankings. ”

    I noticed the same thing. You can probably attribute some of it to unfamiliarity with Links golf but for the most part I think it’s an overreaction to non Americans winning the last 5 majors.

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