2011 BRITISH OPEN PROP WATCH

Winning Score:

I’m not completely sure the averages I used are correct, but I set the course average at about 73. I looked back at 2003, and I think the hole data I used may be a little low based on that, although in 1993 the pros tore up this course.

271-

272

273

274

275

276

277

278+

-9

-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

16.28%

10.09%

13.61%

16.14%

16.58%

13.93%

8.47%

4.91%

That makes the fair line for the OVER/UNDER -5.5 with the Under (-6 or lower) favored at -128/128. The only line I see is -6 or under (+110) against -5 or higher (-150), so maybe I am using a slightly too easy course.

Obviously, the weather can have a pretty big impact on this as well, which is seemingly much harder to predict in coastal England than in Washington, D.C., so I doubt even if many books were offering this number it would be as good of value as Congressional was. I’d be careful with these if you find them unless you have a good way to factor in the weather and its relation to how difficult the course will play.

For what it’s worth here are some of the corresponding numbers,

Cutline:

147

146

145

144

143

0.01%

8.34%

74.12%

17.47%

0.07%

This sets the O/U at 144.5 with OVER a -470 favorite. I know this has happened before, but my cut lines and winners don’t line up with what is being offered. I can only find one book but they have 145 or more at -125 and 144 or less at -110. The Cut was 150 the last time at Royal St. George’s and I would say if anything I have the course set too easy. I’m 2/2 at guessing the right side of the cutlines at majors this year and I’d have to say over 145.5 is probably good, though this prop is not widely available.

Low Round:

67

66

65

64

63

62 or less

0.06%

6.39%

34.58%

36.67%

16.31%

5.99%

6% Chance of a major championship record? Seems a little off, I guess, but I doubt that many major rounds have been played with a course average of 73. So

High Round:

87+

86

85

84

83

82

81

80-

3.19%

4.70%

10.08%

19.20%

27.69%

24.84%

9.46%

0.84%

In theory this is accurate, though as anyone who is playing an awful round of golf can attest it’s doubtful you give a round as much concentration and focus when you are in terrible shape midway through your round.

Margin of Victory:

I feel I can be pretty accurate on this one. It doesn’t really matter what the course average is, the whole field is playing the same course (weather permitting)

Playoff

19.20%

421

1

28.50%

251

2

18.90%

429

3

12.70%

687

4+

20.70%

383

However, I pretty consistently simulate low on the percentage of a playoff happening. 4 of the last 11 British Opens have gone to playoffs, the highest of any major. Since 2000, 12/46 Major Championships have ended in playoffs. By Comparison, 7 of 43 scheduled PGA Tour stroke play events went to playoffs in 2010. That’s 16.2%. Is there a good reason for this? I’d say I might underrated the odds of a player with a one stroke lead on 18 making par, but I’m not sure. When Sunday comes around, I’ll try to make some adjustments for “pressure” and see if that changes the odds of a playoff happening.

Miss or Make the Cut/ Nationalities:

I hope to put a spreadsheet up tomorrow afternoon with all this stuff.

Winning Nationality:

USA

35.22%

184

Europe

45.78%

118

Rest of World

19.00%

426

This is off my straight off my adjusted Sim. but I doubt you’ll have to look hard to find a good price on a USA winner this week given the recent state of American golf. I would be shocked if you added up all the 5dimes odds and the USA wasn’t value at some of the prices you can find.

RORY McILROY:

And that leaves us golf’s “phenom.”

Rory has a bogey free round:

Yes

10.63%

No

89.37%

So, as I mentioned, I’m rolling with what I think is near the easiest possible course average. Still I am way low on Rory having a bogey free round. By comparison, at Castle Stuart last week, where the winning score was Luke Donald’s -19 thru three rounds about 1 in 5 of the third rounds were bogey free. The course average there was three strokes below par instead of three strokes above par. That means at Castle Stuart there was about a 60% chance someone would have a bogey free round for the week, if all four rounds were played. For another comparison, at Wentworth in the final round of the European PGA Championship, no one had a bogey free round when the course average was 1.5 strokes over par. I’d have to say Rory making a bogey in all for rounds is pretty likely. Even if he is near the top of the leaderboard, when there are two par threes over 240 yards and two par fours over 490 yards and British Open wind, I’d say it will be hard to play this course without a bogey.

Rory in final pairing:

Yes

7.92%

No

92.08%

This one is another joke, in my opinion. It’s basically leader, or second with a few conditions after round 3. I have Rory at about 5% of winning after round 4, so I don’t see why he is that much more likely to be in the final pairing. If you adjust 5dimes Rory winning price accordingly, it is about -400/400 that Rory is NOT in the final pairing. Of course, Having Rory as a head and shoulders better than the field favorite is completely unreasonable, so take that for what it is worth.

Rory First Hole:

Birdie or Better

11.17%

795

Par

63.75%

-176

Bogey or worse

25.08%

299

Most of the lines I see are treating this hole like the chances of birdie = the chances of bogey. That seems like a stretch for a hole that only 30% of the players hit the fairway here in 2003 (It supposedly has been widened. It’s hard a hole and Rory will most likely make par, but if he doesn’t bogey should definitely be more likely than birdie or better.

Rory Eagle:

Yes

29.08%

No

70.92%

Not too far off on this one. Would say some slight value sits on “No,” if you can get a good price.

I should have another post breaking down some key players tomorrow.

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6 Comments

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6 responses to “2011 BRITISH OPEN PROP WATCH

  1. Dan

    This seems like potential +EV. Thoughts?

    Steve Stricker – Finishing Position – British Open
    07/14/11 235 Finishing Position
    OFF OFF Over 27.5 (-115)

    02:00 ET Finishing Position
    OFF OFF Under 27.5 (-115)

  2. I have around a 52% chance of Stricker being inside the top-25, so maybe slight value on the under finish.

  3. Blake

    What are you thoughts on Tom Watson to miss the cut -140 (BOL)?

  4. I think I had that at around 25%. Not sure I have enough info to come up with a truly accurate line. I’d say the value is definitely on MISS the cut, but I saw it as high as +120 to MISS the cut earlier this week and I’m not sure what the actual odds would be.

  5. Blake

    Thanks for the input. Much appreciated.

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