WHEN THE MARKET IS WRONG: STEVE STRICKER EDITION

I have a few guesses about why this is, but Steve Stricker is continually underrated:

Tournament

ROI

Relation to avg/ round

WGC-Cadillac Champ

$3.185

0.0820

North Trust

$1.127

0.1830

Shell Houston Open

$1.901

-0.2962

Masters

$3.068

-0.1295

PLAYERS

$2.372

-0.1362

Memorial

$2.171

-0.6906

US Open

$1.499

0.0622

John Deere Classic

$0.945

-0.6654

AVERAGE

$2.033

-0.1988

 

The above chart compares Stricker’s 2 year average to the Vegas price for the given week. Only at the John Deere, where he had won twice in a row coming into this week, was Stricker at a bad price based solely on his 2-year average. Relation to average/ round means how he fared in relation to his average for the week. At an average ROI of around $2 most players should play about .1 standard deviations worse than their straight two year average based on other factors. Stricker is .2 standard deviations BELOW average.

I would not have been surprised to see Stricker regress a little bit from this year based on his age, but here’s a look at his average since 2006:

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

-0.6405

-0.6746

-0.4208

-0.7466

-0.6868

-0.75829

On pace for his best year yet.

I’d say there is a bit of good variance going on here, but the fact remains, Steve Stricker is still probably the best (right now, without Tiger) golfer in the world.

I’d guess that there are a few reasons no one gives him credit: He’s never won a major, He’s getting older (legitimate), he doesn’t look like a top golfer (Rory, Jason Day, Rickie Fowler) should and unlike most good players he is best with an exceptional short game.

Stricker looks like he swings the club like an old guy, but he actually hits the ball plenty far (farther than Luke Donald) and has without a doubt the world’s best game from 100 yards and in. It would be nice to see him get that major this week.

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