SUNDAY GOLF ODDS: BMW EPGA; BYRON NELSON

BMW:

Player

total wins

odds

vegas

winning

Luke Donald

40.07%

150

195

$1.18

Matteo Manassero

23.75%

321

305

$0.96

Lee Westwood

15.70%

537

410

$0.80

Fabrizio Zanotti

2.85%

3409

3000

$0.88

Simon Dyson

2.85%

3409

3000

$0.88

Raphael Jacquelin

2.60%

3746

3000

$0.81

Bradley Dredge

2.04%

4802

3500

$0.73

Alvaro Quiros

1.76%

5582

3000

$0.55

Peter Hanson

1.64%

5998

4500

$0.75

Ross Fisher

0.98%

10104

6600

$0.66

David Horsey

0.94%

10538

7500

$0.71

Jose Manuel Lara

0.80%

12400

9000

$0.73

Anders Hansen

0.72%

13789

10000

$0.73

I doubt Donald is actually value. There is no question that he has played over his head of late, and I think there is some kind of impact for playing under the Sunday pressure. Donald is a past winner, but he is not an obscene closer. Looks like it’s pretty fair here.

If you care, Donald has about a 64% chance of topping Westwood this week if that matters in the OWGR. Eight-percent that they tie.

Byron Nelson:

Player

total wins

odds

vegas

winning

Ryan Palmer

28.30%

253

325

$1.20

Sergio Garcia

23.06%

334

295

$0.91

Matt Kuchar

9.42%

962

725

$0.78

Arjun Atwal

6.89%

1351

1400

$1.03

Ryuji Imada

5.78%

1630

1050

$0.66

Nick Watney

4.34%

2204

1550

$0.72

Gary Woodland

4.23%

2264

1500

$0.68

Jeff Overton

2.55%

3822

1900

$0.51

Joe Ogilvie

2.25%

4344

2700

$0.63

Dustin Johnson

1.84%

5335

3800

$0.72

Rod Pampling

1.49%

6611

5000

$0.76

Keegan Bradley

1.25%

7900

9000

$1.14

John Rollins

1.19%

8303

6500

$0.79

Scott Piercy

1.19%

8303

8000

$0.96

Vijay Singh

1.00%

9900

11000

$1.11

Tim Petrovic

0.99%

10001

9000

$0.90

Vaughn Taylor

0.72%

13789

18000

$1.30

It’s interesting to see that Donald and Palmer are each valued about the same right now. I really think that is just final round pressure for leaders. I don’t see much here, either. Taylor might be alright for a shot in the dark. He’s not great, but he’s been consistent over the past four years. Vijay is definitely on the way down, but it’s not like I have him valued as some superstar. That’s not terrible either. Keegan Bradley, from what I can tell, is in “contention” for the first time and it might be reasonable to assume he will start feeling some pressure if he gets close. At his skil and that price, it wouldn’t take that much of an downward adjustment to make that a bad price.

Jordan Spieth is not listed here, but I have him basically at the same as the books. It’s interesting that even with a good history here, no one thinks he is better than the average for players with less than 40 rounds, at least not yet.

 

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