I thought maybe Carl Petterson’s two final rounds at the RBC Canadian Open last year were on par with what David Toms did here in two consecutive rounds.

I was wrong.

Petterson’s final two rounds summed to about -4.16 standard deviations, around enough difference between him and the field to win a tournament over four rounds. He just did it over two.

@TheTMLJ suggested Rory’s final two at Quail Hollow last year. Turns out he had a better guess than I did. Rory’s two rounds summed to -5.70 over the final two rounds in his win. That’s insane. Over four rounds, that is basically enough difference between you and the field (average PGA Tour golfer, playing average) to win 90% of PGA Tour events. Rory did that in just two rounds.

So, how does Toms compare?

Unadjusted for the field Toms two rounds have summed to -5.22. I would doubt that with this field Toms will be able to top what Rory did against a strong weekend Quail Hollow field.

It’s still very impressive, though. Let me know if you can think of a player or instance where someone put together two really great rounds in a row.

Toms wins this week about 74% of the time based on my adjusted rankings. The average low score for everyone not named Toms in the field this week is -15.02, so Toms would either have to be caught by a great effort from someone or fall apart.

Here’s the full odds:

David Toms


John Senden


Mark Wilson


Rickie Fowler


Charlie Wi


Rory Sabbatini


Steven Bowditch


Bill Haas




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