2011 PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP

Tiger Woods
A couple of huge red flags for Tiger this week. One, he apparently hasn’t hit a ball since the Masters. Uh oh. I think at the Masters, and majors in general, Tiger has been able to “late night cram” his game to close to his 5-year average. That being said, not hitting a golf ball for a few weeks is not promising, although admittedly, no one really knows what exactly is going on in Tiger’s camp.
The other knock on Tiger Woods is his general malaise in playing regular tour events over the last two years. In regular events, Tiger has played about 25-40 in the world. In majors, he’s slightly behind Westwood as No. 2. I really can’t see Tiger giving a crap this week.
Of course, that still means he has a chance to win, but I think even the adjustment I made there (based solely on Vegas price vs. Performance for all golfers) is still to high.

Steve Stricker
I’ll be the first to admit that there is a touch of good variance/luck in Stricker’s great play over the past two years. That’s pretty evident in the prices he always goes off at. Still, I can’t help but feel there is a little value still here. Stricker, in only 30 some odd rounds, has played near what I think is a good average for him (-.62). I don’t think Stricker has show any evidence of falling off the map, and a slew of, “wait, Stricker ended up in the top-15?” finishes make me think he’s on top of his game and could very well win here if he has a good week.

Martin Kaymer
My adjustments look at every player as a whole. Most of the time, I think that’s good. Sometimes, in the case of big name players, the books probably have good incentive to manually adjust guys based on what they feel the public will do. If Kaymer had a bad line, people would know who he is and could potentially hurt the book. On the other hand, Blake Adams, really probably wouldn’t do too much damage to them.
In the case of Kaymer, he appears to have lots of talent, but he might have played over his head last season. Is Kaymer already the world’s second best golfer? I don’t know and based on this price it seems that the books don’t think so. I’d guess that most young players have wildly varying years throughout there 20s so it might be fair to be reasonable with what Kaymer did last season.

Paul Casey
Casey had an extremely good last two years. A slow start to 2011, and you have to wonder were 2009 and 2010 him just playing above his head over a two-year stretch. I’m not sure, but I wouldn’t think there is a ton of value here.

Peter Hanson
Hanson has basically been average for the 2011 season, but was actually quite a good player coming into it. Maybe he doesn’t have his game quite in order right now, but how much can you ignore four straight consistently good years. Like any semi-long shot, it will take lots of good fortune to win here this week, but it’s not like the Players hasn’t had random winners before.

Bryce Molder

Molder’s 2010 was really good, and 2009 above average. He’s back down this year. I know he had a ton of talent in college, but looking at his overall mediocre body of work as a pro, it’s not hard to say the last couple of years were an aberration and there isn’t much value here.

Jhonattan Vegas
So Vegas is not the next greatest player, anymore? Makes sense and as I pointed out before, players that go on a great roll like that usually revert back to their average like the “hot” streak never happened. That appears to have happened with Vegas, except the good play at the beginning of the year is inflating his ranking.

Random LONG Shot(s) of the week: Corey Pavin (1000-1), Blake Adams (830-1), Dean Wilson (810-1)

Odds:

Player

total wins

odds

vegas

winning

Tiger Woods

7.00%

1328

1550

$1.16

Luke Donald

4.19%

2285

1600

$0.71

Phil Mickelson

4.04%

2374

1550

$0.67

Steve Stricker

3.18%

3045

4600

$1.49

Matt Kuchar

3.00%

3231

3400

$1.05

Martin Kaymer

2.46%

3965

4600

$1.16

Jim Furyk

2.35%

4148

4800

$1.15

Hunter Mahan

2.18%

4483

4000

$0.89

Nick Watney

2.04%

4802

4600

$0.96

Dustin Johnson

1.96%

4992

5000

$1.00

Ben Crane

1.83%

5370

3600

$0.68

Charl Schwartzel

1.71%

5734

5500

$0.96

Padraig Harrington

1.63%

6020

5500

$0.92

Adam Scott

1.60%

6158

3400

$0.56

Jason Day

1.58%

6245

5000

$0.80

Paul Casey

1.54%

6410

7500

$1.17

Bubba Watson

1.53%

6419

6000

$0.94

Zach Johnson

1.47%

6703

7000

$1.04

Ian Poulter

1.45%

6806

7000

$1.03

K.J. Choi

1.42%

6942

5500

$0.80

Graeme McDowell

1.34%

7374

7500

$1.02

Geoff Ogilvy

1.32%

7499

6000

$0.80

Bill Haas

1.31%

7522

7000

$0.93

Sergio Garcia

1.29%

7628

6000

$0.79

Francesco Molinari

1.27%

7786

8500

$1.09

 

Any questions, let me know.

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