2011 MASTERS SECOND ROUND

Earlier I was surprised at why some of the top players had poor odds after good first rounds. It appears there may be some historical tendencies that factor in to it.

Here’s a look at players based on what they shot in the first round:

 

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

68-

67.33

72.04

71.08

69.92

69,70

69.54

75.58

73.39

72.50

71,72

71.54

73.46

72.42

72.12

73,74

73.43

73.88

72.50

72.44

Now compared to the average score for the round, because the second round has been by far the highest scoring of the four, though there are much better players on Saturday and Sunday and I didn’t adjust for field average:

 

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

68-

-5.36

-2.07

-1.26

-1.85

69,70

-3.16

1.47

1.04

0.73

71,72

-1.15

-0.65

0.08

0.36

73,74

0.73

-0.23

0.15

0.68

So the first round leaders definitely struggle in the second round, but no more so than any other group. In fact, the guys that shot 69-70 do a lot worse (Phil Mickelson!). I wish Phil Mickelson would project to shoot 80, but most of it actually comes from older players and amateurs and Asians who shot one nice round, then blew up in the second.

As for the course, it should play much harder on Friday. For the past two years taking out Geezers and Amateurs here is the course average by round:

72.3875

73.52201

72.32979

71.75532

By comparison my sim is working with a slightly higher starting average, I said the course has played pretty easy recently especially last year, but does have a similar drop off in averages for the weekend.

And I still have no good answer for why the prices on Rory, Kuchar and Quiros among other leaders are so wrong.

 

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