2011 MASTERS LIVE ODDS

Player

total wins

odds

vegas

ROI

Pre-Tourney ROI

Rory McIlroy

20.31%

392

525

$1.27

$0.92

Alvaro Quiros

9.01%

1010

1350

$1.31

$1.05

Matt Kuchar

7.50%

1234

1500

$1.20

$1.02

K.J. Choi

6.07%

1546

1600

$1.03

$0.87

Tiger Woods

5.80%

1625

1450

$0.90

$0.98

Phil Mickelson

5.72%

1648

600

$0.40

$0.38

Y.E. Yang

4.84%

1968

2200

$1.11

$1.02

Paul Casey

3.27%

2960

3000

$1.01

$1.13

Geoff Ogilvy

2.77%

3515

3200

$0.91

$1.07

Sergio Garcia

2.44%

3992

4800

$1.20

$1.11

Lee Westwood

2.28%

4290

3000

$0.71

$0.93

Charl Schwartzel

2.25%

4340

4400

$1.01

$1.12

Retief Goosen

1.91%

5141

6000

$1.16

$1.35

Ricky Barnes

1.88%

5230

5000

$0.96

$0.97

Ryan Moore

1.67%

5888

6000

$1.02

$1.05

Rickie Fowler

1.61%

6127

4800

$0.79

$1.00

Nick Watney

1.58%

6237

4200

$0.68

$0.66

Brandt Snedeker

1.49%

6593

7000

$1.06

$1.08

Steve Stricker

1.47%

6703

9500

$1.41

$1.97

Ross Fisher

1.31%

7510

6000

$0.80

$1.12

Luke Donald

1.28%

7713

3400

$0.45

$0.87

Gary Woodland

0.96%

10295

6000

$0.59

$0.69

Trevor Immelman

0.86%

11582

4800

$0.42

$0.32

Jim Furyk

0.79%

12494

19500

$1.56

$1.62

Sean O’Hair

0.76%

12989

13500

$1.04

$1.12

Stewart Cink

0.76%

13093

13500

$1.03

$1.34

 

I would basically agree that Phil Mickelson didn’t affect his chances either way with today’s round. I would not agree that he is this likely to win. I would not agree that he is still 6-1 to win. He still has a lot of ground to make up. Tiger must have shown enough today that people are starting to believe his comeback trail has started. His stats don’t look great today, but I guess the large portion of the public expected him to miss the cut here or something.

I added the pre-tournament ROI based on the adjustments to this chart, because I was a little surprised that the top-4 guys have so much value. I’m not sure why. Part of this could be winning a major has been historically harder for first time winners, but Friday seems a little early for that. Another reason could be a regression to the mean after a good round. That could make some sense, but I don’t see why these guys wouldn’t play to the same average. My final guess, is that the weather is expected to be like today and it calms down in the afternoons (Phil alluded to this before the tournament) and the guys that tee off really late have an advantage. I know Quiros and Choi were out late today, but I didn’t bother looking up the tee times.

All that said, I have a feeling the top guys are still good.

As far as the course difficulty the average winning score dropped about .7 to almost 277 even and there’s a 93% chance the cut falls under 147.5. It will be interesting to see if the pins toughen up tomorrow and the course heads back towards its historical average or the course is just being set up easier the last two years than it had been since the changes were implemented.

Hope to update the odds a few times throughout the day tomorrow.

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