Before I get into the full breakdown, here’s a look at some fun odds for the week:
Average winning score: 277.75
I’m always a little worried that these are off especially when the over/under of 276.5 if favored and my numbers say that only happens around 28% of the time. The hole averages I used were based on historical numbers, and I would imagine Vegas has a better estimation of course conditions than I do. However, last year when 277 (-11) tied for fourth, there were basically five guys that played well enough to win the Masters on an average year. I think that might factor into the line here. I would say, don’t expect 278 to be the winning score, but there might be a touch of value on 277+ as a slight underdog.
For the record, there was a .43% chance that the winning score would be 269 or lower, a Masters record.
Low score for the week: 65.25
I actually have the fair line of the low score going under 65 at -125/125 so a few slightly wrong estimates on course conditions and it’s back to the fair line. I’m not sure there is much value here.
The rule at the Masters is low 44 and ties, or anyone within 10 shots of the lead. For those scoring at home, I’m high on the winning score, right on the low score, and low on the cut line. Not sure how that works using the same sim. Obviously weather/course conditions could be a factor, that I admittedly did not include. For what it’s worth, I have a 74.6% chance that the cut falls under 147.5. Because these odds aren’t typically offered, I have no idea how accurate I am, though I think my sim is pretty good. I’d say there is a small chance you could find value on both, because usually my numbers are consistent if wrong they are wrong, and these do not appear to be consistent.
There will be a playoff: 18.26%
I’m low on this one, too, with a fair line at +448/-448. I could probably check this against PGA Tour events, if I cared, but I don’t. I would guess this might be lower because of the lower number of players that make the cut at Augusta, but I could also say that a player with a one shot lead on the 18th hole is more likely to go to a playoff then my numbers indicate because I don’t really make any adjustments for pressure other than what effect it has on every round in the last two years as a whole.
By the way, 948 times out of 500,000 sims, Tiger and Phil both made a playoff. Which leads me to…
Tiger and Phil will be paired in the final group on Sunday: .88%
The dream scenario for CBS, though not golf fans if you care about seeing the other 5 golfers in contention, happened 4,377 times out of 500,000.
Someone will shoot less than 30 on the back nine Sunday: .51%
Augusta is famous for the back nine charges on Sunday, but it seems unlikely that someone will be charging this hard.
There will be a Hole-in-one: 27.36%
This is one where I think my estimates are a little off. On the whole, they are right, but in certain individual situations I think they underestimate the odds of certain outcomes. For example, 12 is not really that long of a hole, but doing the scoring based on averages messes up the hole-in-one chances because of the guys that hit it into the water twice and make 8. I think the odds of someone hitting a perfect 8-iron 155 yards, while still small, are bigger than the odds of someone scoring a 1 on a hole with an average of 3.22 because of the water. Also, I used the same average for 16 for all for days, when historically the Sunday pin is quite easy there, while Saturday is quite hard. Again, when you’re talking about the outlier, I think there is a better chance someone hits a perfect shot to that pin, than just the average score of over 3 would indicate.
Double eagle on 15: 5.32%
This seems a little high to me, but 15 is a pretty easy hole.
Steve Marino eagles the first hole on Thursday: .04%
I think Tiger was going off at like 85-1 to eagle the first hole last year, which was clearly a joke. Hurricane Steve started his Masters with an eagle 187 times out of 500,000.
Tiger Woods eagles both par-5s on the back nine Sunday: .09%
I would guess there are slightly easier pins on these two holes on Sunday, but still it’s not incredibly likely.
Phil makes eagles on 13 and 14 on Saturday: .003%
You may remember Phil did this last year. According to his current talent, this happens just 13 times out of 500,000. Yeah, Phil might have been a little lucky last year. In fairness, eagling 14 on that pin is probably slightly higher because the balls seem to feed right down to near the hole.
Steve Marino leads after the third round and shoots under par on Sunday: .31%
We all know that this is complete garbage based on Sunday Hurricane Steve, but my sim, which only factors in his Sunday choking to the point that it affects his actual scores, said this happened 1554 times out 500,000.
Phil shoots over 80 in the first round: .54%
We can only hope.