2011 MASTERS

Instead of a bunch of annoying multi-colored tables (some are posted), I put the full odds in another spreadsheet.

CONTENDERS

Steve Stricker

It’s a major, so yeah, this makes sense. Stricker has played in three events recently where he has been underrated by a lot and in 12 rounds has played to his average. I have no problem, bumping him down a bit, and still thinking he is a legit contender to win this week.

Jim Furyk

Furyk has not played well this season, but he seems to be one of the least sexy picks to win this week which is probably good. The adjustment I have based on his price more than makes up for his poor play this year and Furyk, who has won a major before is still a good price.

Americans

You can scroll down the list of Masters contenders and run into these names, which are all probably good deals: Stewart Cink, Zach Johnson, Lucas Glover, Sean O’Hair, Jeff Overton and Bo Van Pelt.

Player total wins odds vegas winning
Tiger Woods

8.89%

1024

1000

$0.98

Phil Mickelson

5.49%

1721

600

$0.38

Lee Westwood

5.47%

1729

1600

$0.93

Martin Kaymer

3.91%

2459

2400

$0.98

Nick Watney

3.78%

2543

1650

$0.66

Steve Stricker

3.52%

2739

5500

$1.97

Luke Donald

3.21%

3016

2600

$0.87

Hunter Mahan

2.91%

3337

2800

$0.84

Matt Kuchar

2.91%

3339

3400

$1.02

Paul Casey

2.91%

3342

3800

$1.13

FULL ODDS CAN BE SEEN HERE

MATCHUPS

You can see the full odds in that spreadsheet, but I’ll hit on a few here.

Tiger +147 vs. Phil: Tiger is basically where he has been for the past couple months in the bookmaker’s opinion. Phil is hilariously overrated this week. He definitely has an advantage from playing Augusta well over the years, playing it lots of times (probably more important) and that he definitely aims to peak at majors. However, there is nothing short of constant HGH injections and a few timely placed mulligans that could make Phil as good as the public thinks he is this week. Oh, and all these factors, aside from the appearance of recent good play apply to Tiger, too.

Martin Kaymer +147 v. Nick Watney: Lots of missed cuts + poor recent play= this line for Kaymer. Kaymer had been playing so far over his head recently, but honestly when you look at where my power rankings have him, it doesn’t seem that inaccurate, which makes this basically a toss-up.

Ernie Els +124 v. Ryan Moore: It seems everyone is leaving Els for dead, which is funny because he won twice coming into this event last year and was as close as 2010 had to Phil Mickelson this year.

Sergio Garcia +143 v. Martin Laird: This might be fair if you just counted this year, maybe. Even if you factor in upside and good play for Laird, Sergio has been pretty good this year with a much stronger history. Don’t see how this one isn’t even at best for Laird.

Rickie Fowler -103 v. Aaron Baddeley: It’s been almost three years since Badds strung together two good seasons in a row in 2007-2008. His 2011 appears headed back to that track, but is it sustainable? Fowler isn’t as good as everyone thinks he is, but he’s been better than Baddeley since 2009.

G-Mac +128 v. Bubba: I’m not sure why people all of sudden don’t like Graeme McDowell this week?

More odds in the spreadsheet, but be careful I’m not sure how relevant the adjustments are this week due to the bigger nature of this tournament.

POWER RANKINGS

Player Adj Rank
Tiger Woods -0.7782
Phil Mickelson -0.6561
Lee Westwood -0.6557
Martin Kaymer -0.5748
Nick Watney -0.5686
Steve Stricker -0.5532
Luke Donald -0.5322
Hunter Mahan -0.5113
Matt Kuchar -0.5112
Paul Casey -0.5104
Rory McIlroy -0.4960
Dustin Johnson -0.4918
Justin Rose -0.4453
Graeme McDowell -0.4407
Jim Furyk -0.4149
Bubba Watson -0.4083
Padraig Harrington -0.3945
Ian Poulter -0.3897
Retief Goosen -0.3654
Anthony Kim -0.3598
Geoff Ogilvy -0.3569
Ryan Moore -0.3540
Rickie Fowler -0.3432
Francesco Molinari -0.3376
K.J. Choi -0.3320

If you have any questions about other players or matchups, etc., put them in the comments and let me know.

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