2011 SHELL HOUSTON OPEN

Nick Watney or any other Masters winners

I got a request to talk about Nick Watney and winning the Masters, but it really applies to all. Watney is a young player, playing well, with the confidence of winning, and probably has an upside. Everyone knows this. It probably makes him better than just my flat two year ranking at the moment, but the books know this, and more importantly people know this. Watney looks like a surprise winner of the Masters right now. The problem is, you’re going to pay for it. I’m sure Watney will get a bonus in my adjusted rankings next week, but I’m sure it won’t be enough to make it a good price unless you can find him at some rogue price. Since he will be a popular pick, I doubt that happens.

The other point is, making Masters bets this week is really silly, unless there is a blatantly wrong line floating around. All the books will offer lower juice options next Wednesday, so why not try to get the best price possible then, instead of guessing what will happen this week. The odds of anything meaningful happening this week are already factored into the future odd, and you’re hunches about who is going to win the Shell Houston Open is wrong, so just wait for a better price next week.

Steve Stricker

My adjusted ranking is spot on with where I think he should be and that turns out to be a slightly more likely to win than the price would indicate. Only Lee Westwood, is more likely to win this week, in fact. There are a small sample size of players comparable to Stricker this week on the PGA Tour (Casey and Furyk were the best I found) and they have basically played to their average over 16 rounds. If Stricker does, too, then 21-1 is a great price this week, if not it’s still probably okay. Retief Goosen also falls into this category.

Uber Long Shots

Last week I mentioned Tom Gillis and Charlie Wi, who finished T30 and T24, respectively, so let’s take some more shots in the dark. Tim Petrovic has been god awful this season, but otherwise is probably a better than average PGA Tour pro. For another random golfer with no shot of winning, how about Will Mackenzie?

TOP 25 ADJUSTED ODDS

Player

total wins

odds

Lee Westwood

6.34%

1476

Steve Stricker

5.93%

1586

Matt Kuchar

5.47%

1727

Phil Mickelson

4.70%

2029

Hunter Mahan

4.02%

2386

Francesco Molinari

3.22%

3002

Retief Goosen

2.93%

3311

Charl Schwartzel

2.87%

3382

Padraig Harrington

2.43%

4019

Jason Day

2.29%

4263

Ernie Els

2.24%

4372

Robert Allenby

2.06%

4745

Steve Marino

1.92%

5108

J.B. Holmes

1.87%

5236

Y.E. Yang

1.79%

5480

Anthony Kim

1.78%

5524

Ben Crane

1.78%

5531

Charles Howell III

1.35%

7329

John Senden

1.33%

7419

Robert Karlsson

1.28%

7737

Fred Couples

1.23%

8057

Ross Fisher

1.22%

8097

Justin Leonard

1.13%

8781

Lucas Glover

1.07%

9228

Fredrik Jacobson

1.03%

9571

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