2011 ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL

POWER RANKINGS

I’ll present these pretty much without comment now. They are my rankings adjusted for the vegas line for those players in the field this week. The sample size isn’t huge, but I’m pretty sure they are close and better than using just my straight rankings. More discussion and explanation coming Master’s week, but for now the Top-25:

Rk

Player

Adj Z

1

Tiger Woods

-0.811

2

Steve Stricker

-0.707

3

Lee Westwood

-0.639

4

Paul Casey

-0.567

5

Matt Kuchar

-0.564

6

Graeme McDowell

-0.545

7

Martin Kaymer

-0.539

8

Phil Mickelson

-0.534

9

Retief Goosen

-0.524

10

Dustin Johnson

-0.500

11

Luke Donald

-0.494

12

Hunter Mahan

-0.475

13

Nick Watney

-0.471

14

Francesco Molinari

-0.470

15

Rory McIlroy

-0.463

16

Jim Furyk

-0.436

17

Padraig Harrington

-0.409

18

Tim Clark

-0.397

19

Ernie Els

-0.388

20

Justin Rose

-0.383

21

Zach Johnson

-0.383

22

Bubba Watson

-0.378

23

Charl Schwartzel

-0.376

24

Robert Allenby

-0.371

25

Vijay Singh

-0.363

 

CONTENDERS

Jim Furyk is playing some pretty poor golf so far this season, and I think that’s why this price is available. It doesn’t seem unreasonable for a player of his age that is playing poorly. Still, Furyk looked better last week and a very small sample of comparable players suggests that Furyk can contend. Maybe not the second favorite in the field this week, but still probably better than 40-1. Outside of Furyk, Jeff Overton may be a little overlooked, though I have a big suspicion that last season will pretty much be the high point of his career (Ryder Cupper!). Otherwise maybe a random sighting on the leaderboard by Tom Gillis or Charlie Wi this week, but there’s not really too much that excites me.

TOP-25:

Player

total wins

odds

vegas

ROI

Tiger Woods

12.37%

709

740

$1.04

Jim Furyk

4.00%

2401

4200

$1.72

Phil Mickelson

3.48%

2775

2300

$0.83

Graeme McDowell

3.29%

2943

1900

$0.66

Hunter Mahan

3.06%

3166

2000

$0.64

Zach Johnson

2.58%

3779

4600

$1.21

Dustin Johnson

2.58%

3782

1700

$0.46

Ernie Els

2.57%

3797

4200

$1.10

Ian Poulter

2.09%

4694

7500

$1.59

Robert Allenby

2.00%

4905

5500

$1.12

Charl Schwartzel

1.98%

4951

4600

$0.93

Justin Rose

1.84%

5323

3400

$0.65

Bo Van Pelt

1.73%

5687

9500

$1.66

Bubba Watson

1.66%

5924

4000

$0.68

Sean O’Hair

1.59%

6174

7500

$1.21

Stewart Cink

1.58%

6245

7500

$1.20

Ryan Moore

1.57%

6286

8000

$1.27

David Toms

1.57%

6286

15000

$2.36

Kevin Na

1.56%

6318

6600

$1.04

Vijay Singh

1.56%

6318

4600

$0.73

Steve Marino

1.49%

6593

9500

$1.43

Bill Haas

1.48%

6648

6000

$0.90

Brandt Snedeker

1.39%

7105

5500

$0.78

Peter Hanson

1.34%

7352

11000

$1.49

Rickie Fowler

1.28%

7725

3800

$0.50

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1 Comment

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One response to “2011 ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL

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