ACCENTURE WGC MATCH PLAY: WESTWOOD BRACKET

ROAD TO THE FINAL FOUR:

Lee Westwood: Westwood got no favors as the world’s No.1 player here, which I’m fine with because I doubt you can project him as the best player in the field this week. Stenson is wildly inconsistent and probably a tougher match than Toru Taniguchi, but Westwood’s easily better. Where the trouble starts for Westwood is after the first round. Watney is on fire of late and better than any other 8 or 9 in the field. In the top half of this bracket, Watney, Goosen, Molinari and Choi are all significantly above their average seed line.

Steve Stricker: For a two seed in this event, I’m pretty sure staying out of Tiger’s bracket is the best thing you can do, which Stricker has avoided. I’d love to see more of Manassero, and this is a pretty intriguing match, but I doubt it will get the hype it would have had Manassero had drawn Tiger or Rory or Kaymer. Stricker should draw a tougher than average match in the second round with strong No. 7 Charl Schwartzel and very, very weak No. 10 Ryo Ishikawa. Huge deal for Schwartzel, not so much for Stricker.

Luke Donald: Donald’s pod is pretty average. Hoffman is average draw from for a 14, and so are the six and 11 seeds E Molinari and Laird. With that in mind, Donald has a good chance of getting out of his pod and into the semis. There, as with the rest of this bracket it will get tough with Steve Stricker, Retief Goosen, Lee Westwood and Nick Watney looming. There are a lot of good players in this bracket.

Retief Goosen: Goosen, although a formidable opponent himself, probably has the worst draw in the field. K.J. Choi is not a 13 seed. He’s more in the neighborhood of 6-10 based on the average for this field. After that, F Molinari is in line with a 3 or 4 seed. Then Goosen has to deal with Westwood and potentially Stricker, the top-ranked 2 seed. Every player in this field is really good and getting to the final four is no picnic, but Goosen has a particularly hard run of it. If you switched Goosen with Karlsson, Retief’s path to the final four goes from about 8% to win the bracket to 10.6% to win the bracket. A better test might be getting out of his pod, which he is only likely to do around 30% in this field, but switched with Karlsson, about 40% to do.

 

Player

sd

2nd

odds

FF

odds

Lee Westwood

1

64.76%

-184

11.66%

758

Henrik Stenson

16

35.24%

184

2.54%

3837

Nick Watney

8

55.86%

-127

7.47%

1239

Anthony Kim

9

44.14%

127

4.22%

2270

Retief Goosen

4

56.11%

-128

8.17%

1124

K.J. Choi

13

43.89%

128

4.47%

2137

Ryan Moore

12

45.12%

122

4.51%

2117

Francesco Molinari

5

54.88%

-122

7.73%

1194

Steve Stricker

2

65.29%

-188

14.69%

581

Matteo Manassero

15

34.71%

188

3.38%

2859

Charl Schwartzel

7

62.30%

-165

7.42%

1248

Ryo Ishikawa

10

37.70%

165

1.67%

5888

Luke Donald

3

59.00%

-144

9.20%

987

Charley Hoffman

14

41.00%

144

3.54%

2725

Edoardo Molinari

6

53.46%

-115

5.54%

1705

Martin Laird

11

46.54%

115

3.79%

2539

 

Player

sd

win

odds

z-sc

diff

Lee Westwood

1

0.52%

19131

-0.616

0.014

Henrik Stenson

16

0.03%

333233

-0.082

0.041

Nick Watney

8

0.34%

29312

-0.477

-0.093

Anthony Kim

9

0.11%

90809

-0.272

0.057

Retief Goosen

4

0.33%

30203

-0.489

-0.072

K.J. Choi

13

0.15%

66567

-0.28

-0.178

Ryan Moore

12

0.06%

166567

-0.287

0.035

Francesco Molinari

5

0.21%

47519

-0.467

-0.110

Steve Stricker

2

0.76%

13058

-0.715

-0.162

Matteo Manassero

15

0.08%

124900

-0.15

0.031

Charl Schwartzel

7

0.18%

55456

-0.37

-0.128

Ryo Ishikawa

10

0.02%

499900

0.0576

0.297

Luke Donald

3

0.35%

28471

-0.498

-0.027

Charley Hoffman

14

0.08%

124900

-0.176

0.029

Edoardo Molinari

6

0.15%

66567

-0.285

0.003

Martin Laird

11

0.06%

166567

-0.155

-0.006

 

Diff: Is the difference between players ranking and average rank of that seed. Red means player is better than average rank, green means worse.

MATCHUPS TO WATCH

Stricker -170 vs. Manassero +150: You don’t hear as much about Matteo Manassero as you do about some other young guys, but I really believe there hasn’t been as accomplished an under-18-year-old since Tiger Woods. Now, not even Tiger was able to consistently contend on the PGA Tour at that age, so who knows what to expect from Manassero, but it should be fun to see him against one of the PGA Tour’s best. I’m fairly confident Stricker is due for a slightly down year, so this line seems pretty fair.

Kim +115 vs. Watney -135: I would have guessed Watney is probably close to the -130 favorite I have, or maybe even higher with juice. That’s based on the recent play of each player. My rankings probably agree with it because of Kim’s injury situation last season means he is lower rated than he probably should be. I’d say if you wanted to guess in the future this one is probably pretty even, but I’ve figured out the market is better at guessing where injured players should be than me, so as long as Watney is small favorite that seems good to me.

I don’t really see too much here in the first round.

FAVORITE: Toss up. I can’t argue with either Stricker or Westwood here. Both had really good 2010’s that were above their heads and I think reasonably should regress down to the same level. Gun to my head, I take Stricker who has a slightly more sustained run of high level play and has been better over two years.

SLEEPER: Got to be big Charl here. He is the third most likely to advance out of the first round, which in such a toss-up coin flip of an event is pretty big. After that it is unlikely that Charl would be favored in any round, but that’s why he is a sleeper to win this region.

THE BRACKET:

This is based on most likely to happen from my sims. If I was actually filling in a bracket in a large competition I’d be a little more adventurous with some unpopular players because of the volatility of this event.

1E

6513

Lee Westwood

       

16E

3487

Henrik Stenson

Lee Westwood

     
     

3682

     

8E

5609

Nick Watney

  

Lee Westwood

   

9E

4391

Anthony Kim

Nick Watney

2133

   
     

2923

  

   

5E

5468

Francesco Molinari

 

  

Lee Westwood

 

12E

4532

Ryan Moore

Francesco Molinari

  

1170

 
     

3129

  

  

 

4E

4724

Retief Goosen

  

Francesco Molinari

  

 

13E

5276

K.J. Choi

K.J. Choi

1643

  

 
     

2479

 

  

 

6E

5299

Edoardo Molinari

   

  

Steve Stricker

11E

4701

Martin Laird

Edoardo Molinari

 

  

883

     

2542

 

  

  

3E

5892

Luke Donald

  

Luke Donald

  

  

14E

4108

Charley Hoffman

Luke Donald

1740

  

  

     

3396

  

  

  

7E

6114

Charl Schwartzel

 

  

Steve Stricker

  

10E

3886

Ryo Ishikawa

Charl Schwartzel

  

1556

  

     

2790

  

 

  

2E

6515

Steve Stricker

  

Steve Stricker

 

  

15E

3485

Matteo Manassero

Steve Stricker

2590

 

  

     

4166

   

  

 

 

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1 Comment

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One response to “ACCENTURE WGC MATCH PLAY: WESTWOOD BRACKET

  1. Pava

    I like these breakdowns. It’s interesting to see your stats.

    As much as I like the Molinari brothers. I don’t think they have been playing that well of late, and while they seem unstoppable as a team, I’m not sure about one-on-one.

    I like E’s chances all the way to the final four, but I think F is looking at a tough match against Moore in the first round. Moore has been playing pretty well the last few tournaments IIRC, and, of course, he has a strong matchplay record.

    Westwood’s play has been shaky so far, and while I think he’ll get to the final 8, I think he could easily lose to E. Molinari there. So, I’m picking E. Molinari to win this section.

    My favorite matches of this bracket will/could be: Manassero/Stricker(win), and Schwartzel/Stricker(win) .

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