ROUND 3: 2011 DUBAI DESERT CLASSIC

I always find it really funny, when I basically hit the odds dead on the weekend using the same system that so far underrated Rory McIlroy two days earlier.

Player

total wins

odds

vegas

winning

Rory McIlroy

35.91%

178

185

$1.02

Tiger Woods

17.54%

470

465

$0.99

Sergio Garcia

14.93%

570

535

$0.95

Thomas Aiken

9.84%

916

875

$0.96

Lee Westwood

3.54%

2725

2100

$0.78

Steve Webster

2.92%

3325

6000

$1.78

Anders Hansen

2.53%

3853

4600

$1.19

Peter Hanson

2.28%

4286

4400

$1.03

Martin Kaymer

1.84%

5335

2400

$0.46

Brett Rumford

1.50%

6567

8000

$1.22

I thought Rory might have ridiculous odds, but I guess he doesn’t have a great history of closing out tournaments.

I’m happy with Tiger, in that I’m using the -.9ish ranking I think is pretty fair regardless of individual rounds. I thought two weeks ago was way too aggressive of a projection for him.

Martin Kaymer currently sits seven shots back, with three players of equal or better skill in front of him and 19 total. I’m not sure how anyone would like 24-1.

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