2011 WASTE MANAGEMENT OPEN

Note: I’m going to try to hit on some different players each week, so I might omit some of the obvious answers. If you have questions about them let me know.

CONTENDERS:

Sean O’Hair: I like Sean O’Hair this season. You hear absolutely nothing about him despite the fact that he is on par with Mahan, Kim and Watney. You hear a lot about than those three and almost nothing on O’Hair, making his season debut this week. O’Hair is coming off a down season, but realistically in and up-and-down career, I think the two year is pretty fair to him. Funny that he is 85-1 and Rickie Fowler who still has done nothing is 25-1.

Robert Allenby: It’s the first appearance on Tour this year for perennially-underrated-not-so-Big-Shot-Bob. His performance near the lead at big tournaments might suggest otherwise, but the stats say Allenby his good enough to be among the top players in the field here.

PRETENDERS

Jhonny Vegas: See this.

Anthony Kim: Who knows what to make of Anthony Kim? On one hand is 2008 season was legitimately great. On the other, he hasn’t been close to it since. GRAPH:

It seems like he has lots of talent, but the proof isn’t really (though, to be fair, he was injured last season, which definitely impacted his ranking) there and coming off a nice finish last week I don’t think he’s worth it as one of the top favorites in the field.

INTERESTING

David Toms: Toms has a ridiculous history at this course and seems to be forgotten a little this week. Overall, there does seem to be some decline in Toms’ game since he was consistently one of the best players in the world from 2002-2007. A return to that level 2009, probably puts him a little higher in my rankings than he should be, but realistically, worst case scenario for this week is 65 to 100-1. That’s assuming that 2009 was a total fluke, and his history here means nothing.

Lucas Glover: It’s hard to actually say how good Lucas Glover is at this point. His 2009 major championship seems to be all but forgotten, but his level of play has wavered back and forth quite a bit from year to year. Last year was a down one, but the last two times he played that poorly (still around -.2) he followed it up with -.52 and -.42 seasons respectively. Glover is making his debut this week, and I’m not sure why his five-year average isn’t the worst-case scenario for an average this season. That puts him around 60-1 to win.

Angel Cabrera: Angel Cabrera, also known as possibly the worst golfer to win two majors, surprised me when I ran the numbers this week. I doubt there is much upside in Cabrera, but I still feel like a worst case scenario falls between 75- and 125-1.

DARKHORSES

Tom Lehman: Lehman might not be as good as 100-1 to win this week, but he still has been pretty consistent for someone who I don’t think plays a full PGA Tour schedule anymore. I’d definitely project him down from my rankings, but I think he might have a good week here more than once in 400 tries.

Player total wins odds vegas winning
Phil Mickelson

4.58%

2082

670

$0.35

Nick Watney

3.71%

2594

1950

$0.76

Dustin Johnson

3.48%

2772

1050

$0.40

Hunter Mahan

3.17%

3051

2500

$0.83

Robert Allenby

2.44%

3995

9500

$2.34

Sean O’Hair

2.28%

4282

8000

$1.85

Kevin Na

2.26%

4321

4000

$0.93

David Toms

2.18%

4479

11000

$2.42

Ben Crane

2.05%

4783

5000

$1.04

Geoff Ogilvy

2.02%

4850

4200

$0.87

Bubba Watson

2.01%

4880

3600

$0.74

Bo Van Pelt

1.97%

4976

8500

$1.69

Kenny Perry

1.96%

5012

23000

$4.52

Lucas Glover

1.67%

5902

14000

$2.35

Bill Haas

1.64%

6005

3000

$0.51

Camilo Villegas

1.57%

6269

5000

$0.80

Ryan Moore

1.57%

6286

6000

$0.96

Justin Leonard

1.38%

7157

17000

$2.36

Anthony Kim

1.33%

7430

2300

$0.32

Kevin Sutherland

1.32%

7499

19000

$2.51

John Senden

1.31%

7545

19000

$2.50

Charles Howell III

1.29%

7628

4600

$0.61

Jonathan Byrd

1.29%

7652

8000

$1.04

Angel Cabrera

1.28%

7737

20000

$2.56

Rickie Fowler

1.27%

7749

2200

$0.29

Brandt Snedeker

1.24%

7939

6000

$0.76

Jeff Overton

1.23%

8043

7000

$0.87

Charley Hoffman

1.18%

8346

19000

$2.26

Vijay Singh

1.17%

8418

9000

$1.07

J.B. Holmes

1.17%

8447

4600

$0.55

NG NATION FANTASY:

I found out about this contest through Jalnichols site, and it seems fun, and free to enter so I’m going to give it a shot, though I am a month late to the party. The Rules are you pick four golfers, with no season limits and one has to be a Nike Golfer.

As far as the Nike golfers go, Lucas Glover is a pretty easy pick. Kim has been taken by roughly 85% of the contestants so he is 110th out of 130 in marginal points, that is expected points multiplied by the percent of people who have not taken the player. Glover, on the other hand, is debatably better and taken by no one.

As for the rest of my picks, I don’t see much of a need to deviate from the top in marginal points. Twenty-percent of the contestants have taken, Nick Watney, but that’s not enough to not make him the best selection. Hunter Mahan is only on 16% of the squads and has upside so that was pretty easy too. Considered O’Hair, because he is only on one team, but I don’t think he is a better choice than the similarly skilled, but not selected on anyone’s team, Robert Allenby.

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8 Comments

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8 responses to “2011 WASTE MANAGEMENT OPEN

  1. Sean

    Thoughts on Brian Gay as he is a common matchup with The Second Coming?

  2. All the proof is that Gay is better. I have -145/+145 as the fair line. Gay, with finishes of 5 and 13 this year is playing over is head to start the season, but so is Vegas. I can’t really disagree with my ratings in this one.

  3. Hard to say that Kim is a pretender. He had a great 2010..just because he broke his thumb and missed a few months doesn’t discredit the way he played.

    He didn’t miss a cut before he opted to get surgery. He also had 6 straight Top 25’s including 2nd at the Honda Classic, his win at the Houston Open, 3rd at the Masters and 7th at Quail Hollow.
    Then he took off 4 months because of a broken thumb which he played through at the Masters and at Quail Hollow.

    He ended the 2010 season bad because he wasn’t healthy and was forcing himself to play. Through his first 3 events of 2010, he’s improved on every start, with a T19, T16 and T6 last week.

    I just think he’s far from a pretender.

  4. My pretender category is more in relation to the odds offered this week.

    I think he has more upside than my ratings suggest, but he has two big marks against him in my book. Overall, his record doesn’t add up to the hype he gets, though as you point out, there may be good reason for that.

    My second point is, he is not 25-1 to win against this field.

    I can see the argument for why Kim is among the best players in this field. I can’t see him winning once in every 25 times being close to value, which is why I called him a pretender.

  5. Jamie

    Just thought I would point out that Allenby has already played twice this year on the PGA Tour and missed the cut both times, so its not his first appearance of the year.

  6. If nothing else, I am good at highlight the long shot that has one good first round and disappears.

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