2011 Farmers Insurance Open True Leaderboard

Unlike anyone in the media, I dusted off my calculator for a true Farmers Insurance Open Leaderboard.

Calculated on standardize scores from the course today, then converted back to the South average.

aRank and aScore are actual score and rank from today. Cz is the course z-score. Then adjusted is based on South average.

aRank

Player (Course)

aScore

Cz

Adj

Adj rank

1

Sunghoon Kang (NC)

64

-2.31

65.55

1

T2

Alex Prugh (NC)

65

-1.98

66.58

2

T2

Rickie Fowler (NC)

65

-1.98

66.58

2

T5

John Daly (SC)

67

-1.84

67.01

4

T5

Fabian Gomez (SC)

67

-1.84

67.01

4

T5

Phil Mickelson (SC)

67

-1.84

67.01

4

4

Chris Kirk (NC)

66

-1.65

67.61

7

T15

Matt Jones (SC)

68

-1.52

68.01

8

T15

Paul Stankowski (SC)

68

-1.52

68.01

8

T5

Brandt Jobe (NC)

67

-1.32

68.64

10

T5

Bill Haas (NC)

67

-1.32

68.64

10

T5

Keegan Bradley (NC)

67

-1.32

68.64

10

T5

Ryuji Imada (NC)

67

-1.32

68.64

10

T5

Fredrik Jacobson (NC)

67

-1.32

68.64

10

T5

Y.E. Yang (NC)

67

-1.32

68.64

10

T5

Marc Leishman (NC)

67

-1.32

68.64

10

T22

Kevin Sutherland (SC)

69

-1.20

69.01

17

T22

Hunter Mahan (SC)

69

-1.20

69.01

17

T22

Brian Davis (SC)

69

-1.20

69.01

17

T22

Michael Thompson (SC)

69

-1.20

69.01

17

T22

Jamie Lovemark (SC)

69

-1.20

69.01

17

T22

Kevin Streelman (SC)

69

-1.20

69.01

17

T22

Dustin Johnson (SC)

69

-1.20

69.01

17

T15

Anthony Kim (NC)

68

-0.98

69.67

24

If I thought that one round of golf mattered, I’d brag about possibly being the only person in the world to mention Fabian Gomez in a preview of this tournament. But, since it doesn’t and experience has taught me regression to the mean always wins, I’d say he fades over the next three days.

Haven’t really looked at any prices, but I’d guess Fowler is overrated and you won’t find a bargain on the merits of different courses unless it was one pre-tournament (Gomez). I have Kang as now well above average in 22 rounds, for whatever that is worth, and he appeared to speak better English than Jim Gray today.

EUROPE

Don’t feel like adjusting my stuff, so no live odds in America until Saturday, but here’s Europe:

Player

total wins

odds

vegas

winning

Paul Casey*

13.08%

665

545

$0.84

Francesco Molinari

12.51%

699

470

$0.71

Peter Hanson*

8.23%

1115

1500

$1.32

Johan Edfors*

6.89%

1351

2200

$1.58

Sergio Garcia*

5.15%

1844

2500

$1.34

Alvaro Quiros*

4.49%

2127

1600

$0.76

Richard Green*

4.19%

2289

2700

$1.17

Matteo Manassero*

3.50%

2761

1800

$0.66

Edoardo Molinari

3.30%

2935

3200

$1.09

Miguel Angel Jimenez*

3.12%

3105

2800

$0.90

Jeev Milkha Singh*

2.88%

3372

5500

$1.61

Padraig Harrington

2.50%

3908

2700

$0.70

Graeme Storm

2.14%

4573

5500

$1.20

Alexander Noren

2.01%

4875

3400

$0.70

Anders Hansen

1.93%

5095

3200

$0.64

Raphael Jacquelin

1.53%

6436

8500

$1.32

Peter Lawrie

1.49%

6634

9000

$1.35

Robert Karlsson*

1.48%

6680

2700

$0.41

Thongchai Jaidee

1.47%

6726

8500

$1.26

I think Sergio Garcia is a real bargain at this price. I have 2002-2009 to prove that he is really good, and 2010 to prove that he is mediocre. I like that. I’m starting to suspect that one fluke year is just one fluke year, and if Sergio is fully back at 2009 play, this is a steal.

 

 

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