2011 FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN

Player

total wins

odds

vegas

winning

Tiger Woods

29.95%

234

265

$1.09

Phil Mickelson

3.54%

2729

1950

$0.72

Nick Watney

3.13%

3100

2100

$0.69

Hunter Mahan

2.41%

4049

4800

$1.18

Dustin Johnson

2.31%

4229

2100

$0.51

Robert Allenby

2.05%

4778

8000

$1.66

Kenny Perry

1.70%

5782

25000

$4.27

Kevin Na

1.65%

5979

9000

$1.50

Ben Crane

1.56%

6310

4600

$0.73

Justin Rose

1.55%

6372

4400

$0.70

Lucas Glover

1.48%

6657

9500

$1.42

Bo Van Pelt

1.45%

6797

#N/A

#N/A

Steve Marino

1.45%

6820

12000

$1.75

Stewart Cink

1.43%

6918

12000

$1.72

Bubba Watson

1.41%

7017

9500

$1.35

Bill Haas

1.35%

7335

3600

$0.50

Camilo Villegas

1.25%

7900

6500

$0.83

Angel Cabrera

1.21%

8199

19000

$2.30

K.J. Choi

1.20%

8233

8000

$0.97

Charles Howell III

1.16%

8558

2800

$0.33

 

Tiger Woods

Apparently, he’s back.

This projection for Tiger means books/people/market think Tiger’s 2010 season didn’t happen.

Actually, if you look at 2006-2010, and you assume that Tiger is 100% back that projection is a little low.

From what I can tell, the vast majority of proof seems to side with Tiger’s personal issues causing one fluke season. There shouldn’t be any reason he can’t return to that level if he wants to.

However, I’m a little concerned that it’s too soon. At his last appearance in the Chevron World Challenge, I had the fair price level between -.9 and -.95. Now, it’s about -1.1. To be honest, I have no idea what(/who) Tiger has done in the last month, but that seems a bit aggressive. It’s worth noting that the books estimate of Tiger last year was probably more accurate than mine, so I’m okay with -1.1.

The point is, Tiger’s actual skill level could fall anywhere from -.9 to -1.2+ this week. Feel free to make your own guess.

Contenders

Kenny Perry: Perry, on straight average, ranks as one of the best bargains in the field. I’m not sure that’s the case. Looking at his history, you have one obvious out-lying season at age 47/48 in an otherwise slow decline from a great player in his early 40s. I don’t think at this point in his career it’s reasonable to expect a return to 2009 form. That means 2010, or slightly lower, is probably a pretty good estimation of his skills. I think that reasonably puts him in the 140-180-1 range to win this week. Maybe slight value over the actual line, but not as much as the rankings suggest.

Hunter Mahan: Mahan had a great 2009, then fell back to 2007-2008 levels last season. Which was more meaningful? I’m not sure. I have slight value on Mahan, but it’s close either way.

Kevin Na: Na is in the same boat as Mahan. There is probably some improvement in his game, but it might be out-weighed by a 2009 season that looks to be an outlier. Could be slight value in 75-1, maybe.

Pretenders

Rickie Fowler: Rickie should really thank his PR guy, because I’m not sure why he gets as much good press as he does for his performance on tour so far. He stands out with his level of play for a young guy, but not quite as much when you compare it to the rest of the Tour. Last time I checked, there are 149+ other players here this week. Rickie has a few close calls, but he has been a little inconsistent and let’s remember every hole counts the same, whether you’re in third or 89th or whether Peter Kostis is drooling over your slow-mo swing.

Phil Mickelson: Phil has a lesser price against a stronger field this week. Part of this is probably performance based, since he is one of the few players with enough rounds who actually performs worse on the European Tour than the PGA Tour. Still, Phil could be good, and probably higher than the rankings I have due to personal situations in the last few years, but I don’t see a lot of upside. Also, he seems to get some credit for “growing up on Torrey Pines,” but I can’t remember his performance being particularly noteworthy there.

Dustin Johnson: Basically the same point I have with McIlroy. You can see the talent there, but I can’t see him growing into it overnight.

Darkhorses

Kevin Chappell: Rookies on the PGA Tour seem to be pretty underrated this week. Part of that is probably with good reason as the recent trend seems to be that most players have a career year to get to the PGA Tour through the NW Tour then regress on their first year out. Still, I think there are players to cherry pick that could have enough upside to make it worth it. One is Chappell, who has consistently been around PGA average for the past three years. Chappell had a solid college career, comparable with Rickie Fowler in the Sagarin rankings in his last season. He probably projects to about an average PGA player or slightly better, which means he wins here around 1 in 300 tries.

Bryce Molder: Molder probably played over his head in 2010, but did have a solid potential before that. I think it’s probably reasonable to expect his game to fall around the same level as Kenny Perry, which means there may be slight value in 175-1.

Stephen Ames: Ames is another star that could be value for this week. From 2006-2009, he played at a very consistent level, and picked up two wins. Last season, he fell far below that. Based on his play last season that 175-1 is pretty fair, but I think even with his age he should project to around the -.28 to -.25 on average. That puts the fair price around 100-1 to 125-1.

Tom Gillis: Gillis was great value last year as he kept up his level of play from the previous two years, on the PGA Tour for the first time in a while. Gillis probably doesn’t have a lot of upside in his mid-forties and his game isn’t really noteworthy, but if you ignore the 136th place finish in his first start this year I think he is more in the 150-1 to 175-1 area to win this week.

LONGGGGGshots

Rookies: Don’t know much about them, but Fabian Gomez, James Driscoll, William McGirt and a host of other PGA Tour new faces at 1000-1 week, could be worth a shot. Of course, they probably won’t end up winning (or get mentioned), but may finish inside the top-25 if you’d like to follow on shot-tracker.

Scott McCarron: Heard the name before, but haven’t really noticed him much. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think he is an average PGA Pro based on his play the last three years. I’m sure a closing 78 at the Bob Hope doesn’t help his cause in many people’s opinions, but, whatever that’s just one round. Could be worth a shot if he has a career week like some guy named Rocco did here 3 years ago.

Blake Adams: Blake Adams had a great year in 2009 on the Nationwide Tour, where he would have been well above the PGA Tour average. In 2010, on the PGA Tour, he regressed back to essentially and average golfer. At age 35, he should be at the top of his game, and I’m willing to say that an average PGA Tour golfer wins this week more than 1 in every 650 tries. Adams posted a 63rd place finish here last year largely because of a third-round 77. If random Anthony Wall, can finish t-11 in Abu Dhabi maybe Adams can throw together a good week in San Diego.

Player

total wins

odds

vegas

winning

Kenny Perry

1.70%

5782

25000

$4.27

Stephen Ames

1.06%

9334

26000

$2.77

J.J. Henry

0.54%

18592

50000

$2.68

Brandt Jobe

0.43%

23429

62000

$2.64

Ben Curtis

0.65%

15285

40000

$2.61

Chad Collins

0.50%

20102

49000

$2.43

Pat Perez

0.69%

14393

35000

$2.42

Angel Cabrera

1.21%

8199

19000

$2.30

William McGirt

0.23%

44344

100000

$2.25

Blake Adams

0.34%

29751

67000

$2.25

Tom Gillis

0.63%

15773

33000

$2.09

Matchups to Watch:

Player

Opponent

Wins

Ties

Implied

Odds

Tiger Woods

Phil Mickelson

78.57%

3.38%

81.31%

-435

Hunter Mahan

Ryuji Imada

66.40%

4.07%

69.21%

-225

Bubba Watson

J.B. Holmes

51.36%

4.48%

53.77%

-116

Kenny Perry

Vijay Singh

53.19%

4.28%

55.57%

-125

Robert Allenby

Ben Crane

51.04%

4.61%

53.50%

-115

Tiger Woods

Dustin Johnson

81.56%

3.33%

84.36%

-540

Nick Watney

Rickie Fowler

59.39%

4.49%

62.18%

-164

Anthony Kim

Justin Rose

43.21%

4.64%

45.31%

121

Gary Woodland

Jhonattan Vegas

37.35%

5.05%

39.33%

154

Mike Weir

Bill Lunde

57.75%

4.59%

60.53%

-153

European Tour:

Player

total wins

odds

vegas

winning

Paul Casey

9.90%

910

700

$0.79

Francesco Molinari

6.65%

1404

1100

$0.80

Padraig Harrington

6.00%

1567

1100

$0.72

Ian Poulter

5.39%

1755

1100

$0.65

Peter Hanson

3.57%

2701

3300

$1.21

Edoardo Molinari

3.53%

2733

4000

$1.45

Sergio Garcia

3.38%

2859

3000

$1.05

Miguel Angel Jimenez

2.80%

3471

2200

$0.64

Alvaro Quiros

2.65%

3674

2200

$0.61

Robert Karlsson

2.62%

3717

1050

$0.30

Richard Green

2.44%

3998

4500

$1.12

Soren Kjeldsen

2.04%

4802

7500

$1.55

Gonzalo Fernandez-Casta

1.97%

4976

10000

$1.99

Matteo Manassero

1.94%

5055

2200

$0.45

Soren Hansen

1.89%

5191

8000

$1.53

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