2011 ABU DHABI WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP

Player

total wins

odds

vegas

winning

Lee Westwood

8.59%

1065

800

$0.77

Paul Casey

6.57%

1423

1400

$0.98

Martin Kaymer

5.63%

1676

700

$0.45

Phil Mickelson

5.28%

1795

2200

$1.21

Rory McIlroy

4.66%

2047

1000

$0.51

Retief Goosen

4.61%

2068

4500

$2.12

Graeme McDowell

3.91%

2458

1400

$0.59

Padraig Harrington

3.74%

2573

4500

$1.72

Francesco Molinari

3.72%

2591

2200

$0.85

Ian Poulter

3.53%

2737

1500

$0.56

Charl Schwartzel

2.72%

3574

3300

$0.93

Ross Fisher

2.13%

4590

4000

$0.87

Peter Hanson

2.11%

4635

4000

$0.87

Edoardo Molinari

1.94%

5063

6600

$1.30

Louis Oosthuizen

1.79%

5499

1800

$0.34

Miguel Angel Jimenez

1.49%

6620

7500

$1.13

Alvaro Quiros

1.45%

6778

4200

$0.63

Richard Green

1.34%

7357

12500

$1.69

Simon Dyson

1.21%

8192

18500

$2.24

Soren Hansen

1.21%

8199

12500

$1.52

Thongchai Jaidee

1.18%

8367

10000

$1.19

Soren Kjeldsen

1.14%

8649

30000

$3.44

Gonzalo Fernandez-Casta

1.05%

9406

25000

$2.64

Matteo Manassero

1.04%

9543

6600

$0.69

 

Pretenders:

Europe: There seems to be a group of European players that everyone is giving super powers to right now. I’m not sure where this is coming from, but they aren’t this good. Hopefully 2011, will support that opinion.

Youth: Martin Kaymer and Rory McIlroy are two of the games’ brightest stars. They aren’t magicians, though. Neither one of them has ever played at a high enough level to be at this price.

Major winners: Looking at you Uzi.

Contenders:

Retief Goosen: Goosen is coming off a pretty dismal week by missing the cut at the Africa Open in his last outing. That’s really not good for a world-class player. Goosen is coming off two pretty solid seasons, though he is clearly a step down since 2004, when he was a top-5 player in the world. He’s more like top-15 now, and on his way down, but not that far down. Who exactly is better than him in this field: Westwood, Phil, Rory, Kaymer and Casey. I think that’s it. In his only appearance at Abu Dhabi GC, the Goose took home a

Phil Mickelson: Will Phil Mickelson actually give a crap this week? Hard to say, but if he does he is either the best or second best player in the field, depending on how you look at Westwood’s 2010. Over the past two years, Phil has dropped his level of play down to Goosen, but there seem to be a lot of good reasons for that with his family issues. At every tournament in America, you get odds like that is the case. This week, there is a very fair price. For Phil, this is the first appearance in the Abu Dhabi Championship and I’d be interested to see how he has fared in Euro Tour events over his career.

Darkhorses:

Gonzalo-Fernandez Castano: I’m guessing a less than stellar history at Abu Dhabi accounts for this price. GFC, at the very least, is a solid player ranked inside the top-100 of the world. He’s even on a bit of a roll going back to last year.

Soren Kjeldsen: Kjeldsen is coming off a down year – still better than PGA average – after four solid years before that. Kjeldsen is consistently forgotten for some reason, and I think that is the case here.

Shot in the dark:

Anthony Wall: Can’t say I’ve heard much about Wall, but he’s had a moderate amount of success over the past few years. Last year was not as good for him, but he’s only 34 and finished 4th here two years ago, so who knows?

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