2011 HYUNDAI TOURNAMENT OF CHAMPIONS

Here’s my odds after 100,000 sims using my latest two year rankings:

Player

total wins

odds

pinny

winning

Steve Stricker

15.65%

539

1511

9.44%

Jim Furyk

9.50%

953

1107

1.21%

Matt Kuchar

6.07%

1548

2013

1.34%

Dustin Johnson

5.60%

1687

1101

-2.73%

Zach Johnson

4.91%

1937

3523

2.15%

Ian Poulter

4.82%

1973

2013

0.09%

Ernie Els

4.37%

2188

907

-5.56%

Hunter Mahan

4.11%

2335

2215

-0.21%

Francesco Molinari

4.10%

2337

2215

-0.22%

Geoff Ogilvy

3.75%

2565

752

-7.98%

Graeme McDowell

3.66%

2634

1309

-3.44%

Justin Rose

3.33%

2907

4026

0.90%

Charley Hoffman

3.11%

3114

4530

0.95%

Tim Clark

2.92%

3320

4026

0.50%

Bubba Watson

2.88%

3367

3523

0.12%

Jason Day

2.72%

3582

4026

0.29%

Anthony Kim

2.61%

3739

3523

-0.16%

Ben Crane

2.53%

3856

4530

0.37%

Camilo Villegas

2.37%

4121

3019

-0.84%

Adam Scott

1.99%

4918

2013

-2.74%

Bill Haas

1.86%

5271

4530

-0.30%

Jonathan Byrd

1.52%

6492

7046

0.12%

Ryan Palmer

0.98%

10125

6040

-0.65%

Jason Bohn

0.87%

11381

12581

0.08%

Heath Slocum

0.82%

12095

8052

-0.41%

Robert Garrigus

0.55%

18148

8052

-0.68%

Carl Pettersson

0.44%

22627

9059

-0.65%

Derek Lamely

0.39%

25410

20130

-0.10%

Rocco Mediate

0.38%

26425

10065

-0.61%

Cameron Beckman

0.30%

33013

17614

-0.26%

Bill Lunde

0.24%

41052

17614

-0.32%

Arjun Atwal

0.23%

43568

10065

-0.75%

Matt Bettencourt

0.23%

44344

17614

-0.34%

Stuart Appleby

0.21%

47293

2516

-3.61%

 

GOOD:

Steve Stricker: I’ve speculated that Stricker’s last two seasons were a bit fortunate, and guessed that he had only a 16% chance of matching the last two seasons. I still stand by that. But, that’s still a lot of value there. In 365 rounds over 5 years, Stricker is still around -.64, which while it is below his last two seasons, is a large sample size and still a great price. From what I can tell break even seems to be a little below -.5. That would be a very modest estimation of Stricker’s potential this season. I’m struggling to see upside in Stricker, but it’s not like he aged 10 years in the offseason or a five-year sample is easily a fluke. I’m sure Stricker’s poor performance in Tiger’s hit and giggle doesn’t hurt, either.

OKAY:

Jim Furyk: Furyk is interesting, because I actually think he has a reasonable (better than 50%) of playing better in 2011. Of course, I doubt he wins as many tournaments, so I’ll be the only one to say it, but 2010 was actually a down season round-for-round. I’m not sure I would set Furyk as my favorite this week at between 7- and 9-to-1.

Zach Johnson: coming off a down season last year, I think Zach should be better this year. On a five-year average, only Ogilvy, Els, Scott, Stricker and Furyk are better in this field.

BAD:

Ernie Els, Stuart Appleby and Geoff Ogilvy: Easy to lump together as they are all past champions. I’ve speculated before that number of rounds at a course is more important than quality of the rounds so I’m not too concerned. I actually think all three could be underrated my rankings, but none of them nearly enough to draw those prices.

Adam Scott: I wish I would have followed Scott more closely last season. His 2009, appears to be a complete fluke based on the rest of his career. He probably had a lot of value last season. Now, however, it seems like the books are pretending 2009 didn’t happen after a 2010 that looked more like the rest of his career. If that is true, then Scott isn’t as bad as my rankings would suggest and probably around 20-1 to win.

Graeme McDowell: If Graeme McDowell was Asian and didn’t speak much English he would be Y.E. Yang. 2010 was a career season for G-Mac and he got obscenely fortunate, yet is somehow labeled as clutch. It’s safe to say I am going to be as pessimistic as any person on G-Macs future and would bet a lot that he doesn’t play round-for-round in 2011 as well as he did in 2010.

MATCHUPS TO WATCH:

I am just going to list 10 I think are interesting along with the percentages to win generated by my sim. 1000 sims, if you want to figure out the margin of error.

Player

Win %

Tie %

Implied W

Opp.

Zach Johnson

79.60%

3.70%

82.66%

Stuart Appleby

Francesco Molinari

78.50%

3.10%

81.01%

Stuart Appleby

Ian Poulter

46.60%

5.60%

49.36%

Graeme McDowell

Ernie Els

50.60%

5.60%

53.60%

Graeme McDowell

Hunter Mahan

47.10%

5.30%

49.74%

Dustin Johnson

Hunter Mahan

51.10%

4.40%

53.45%

Graeme McDowell

Ernie Els

53.20%

6.60%

56.96%

Geoff Ogilvy

Jim Furyk

55.90%

5.10%

58.90%

Ernie Els

Jim Furyk

58.90%

4.30%

61.55%

Geoff Ogilvy

Jason Day

42.60%

5.10%

44.89%

Ernie Els

 

 

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3 Comments

Filed under Uncategorized

3 responses to “2011 HYUNDAI TOURNAMENT OF CHAMPIONS

  1. Jamie

    Glad to see your tournament analysis is back with us. Did you take into account rustiness at all? It seems to me that success in this tournament has been affected by whether you played much in December, hence the preponderance of Australians at the top of the leaderboards perhaps over the past few years?

  2. choo

    Also to consider: Lack of toenails

  3. Off the top of my head, I’d tend to agree with Choo, but it might be worth looking into.

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