STEVE STRICKER: 2011 PGA TOUR PREVIEW

Round-for-Round, no one other than Tiger Woods has been better over the past three years.

CAREER MAP:

Stricker is one of the few players who has appeared to change a lot over his career. In the late 90s, Stricker was a top-ten player, then he fell off the map for a few years, and has returned to top form the last few years. That seems to be pretty rare.

Stricker is somewhat alone amongst great players in that statistically Stricker is not as pure a ball striker as some of the other big talents. Stricker is primarily carried by a ridiculous game inside of 100 yards. He makes a lot of putts, he’s always among the game’s best at scrambling and he’s great at around 150-75 yards.

This raises a couple points:

One, Stricker made 18.6 percent of his putts from outside of ten feet this season. That was fifth on the PGA Tour. In 2009, he made 16.9 percent. In 2008, it was 15.4 percent. Over three years his average is around 16.9 percent. Over 500 shots

That suggests Stricker is at least a little lucky, when it comes to making putts this year, whether it’s because he made more than he should have, or his attempts outside of 10 feet were closer than normal or easier than normal. Either way, this should regress.

The other point with Stricker, is to wonder whether his style of play is more suited to regular tour events. Stricker doesn’t have the flashy game that some of the other top players have. This really isn’t terrible, because Stricker has won some big tournaments and a ton of money. However, I do wonder if his game is less suited to majors than other big guns. When it’s the TPC of Deere Lick, his game seems perfectly suited. On courses with tougher conditions at majors Stricker has not had as much success.

Historically, Stricker’s major performance is below average, but not crazily so. It’s about 1 standard deviation below his average in the last five years, so it might just be some bad luck.

As far as 2011, A few less putts should drop and Stricker is a year older, but I don’t think he’s falling too far.

2011 PROJECTION:

BETTER THAN 2010: 16.9%

KEEPS HIS CARD: 100%

Z-SCORE: -.62

ST. DEV: .95

ODDS OF WINNING A MAJOR (Assumes above ranking): 4.8%

Average played (Based on above ranking and PGA Tour exemption category): 3.98

DISTRIBUTION*

 

At least one

17.750%

No majors

82.250%

one major

16.494%

two majors

1.204%

three majors

0.052%

four majors

0.000%

*50,000 sims

 

 

 

Advertisements

4 Comments

Filed under Uncategorized

4 responses to “STEVE STRICKER: 2011 PGA TOUR PREVIEW

  1. JOHN

    Hello…
    I have entered a Golf Pool. One question…is there a web site that publishes participation of individual players? I realize things come up over time, but i have found it difficult to determine if “my picks” are even planning to attend a particular tournament.
    Thanks for tour help…..
    John Riggenbach

  2. The PGA Tour publishes the entry list at around 6 p.m. the friday before the tournament.

    Other than that, I would advise using Yahoo for past appearances and the PGA Tour exemption list to take a good guess at who will appear.

    Sometimes, in the cases of bigger named players, the individual tournament websites will post commitments well ahead of time in order to advertise a little.

  3. Mark Neudorf

    why is Steve not playing this week and next

  4. I think he is playing in the Qatar Masters this week, and assume he might stay for Dubai.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s