UPDATED SUNDAY RYDER CUPS ODDS

Well, that third session is going well for Europe.

There’s about a 16.6% chance that the Europeans go undefeated in that session. The American alternate shot teams are doing quite poorly with a 1.5% and 5.6%, respectively chance of getting the win. Here’s the breakdown of the expected distribution from the third session:

US POINTS PCT
0 16.65%
0.5 14.71%
1 27.12%
1.5 15.82%
2 15.22%
2.5 6.02%
3 3.26%
3.5 0.80%
4 0.37%
4.5 0.03%
5 0.01%
5.5 0.00%
6 0.00%

The most likely outcome is that the US manages to get a point and takes a 9-7 deficit into the final Singles session. Once, out of 10,000 sims the US won five points, which is pretty absurd.

IN PROGRESS MATCH ODDS

USA ePTs-EURO ePTS 7.19 8.81
MATCH 1
Furyk/DJ 25.56% 291
Harrington/Fisher 58.76% -142
Tie 15.68% 538
MATCH 2
Watson/Overton 13.64% 633
Hanson/MAJ 74.80% -297
Tie 11.56% 765
MATCH 3
Cink/Kuchar 24.08% 315
Molinaris 61.00% -156
Tie 14.92% 570
MATCH 4
Mickelson/Fowler 16.68% 500
Poulter/Kaymer 72.08% -258
Tie 11.24% 790
ALT1
Stricker/Woods 1.64% 5998
Donald/Westwood 95.04% -1916
Tie 3.32% 2912
ALT2 thru 7
Mahan/ZJ 5.64% 1673
McIlroy/G-Mac 87.96% -731
Tie 6.40% 1463

The average outcome falls somewhere between 8.5-7.5 and 9-7. The US is down, but I don’t think its quite as bad as RyderCup.com’s projected 10 to 6 score of six European flags on the board.

RYDER CUP ODDS:

Anyway you slice it, not a good session for the US, but with some good luck, things can change very quickly. Should be at least competitive tomorrow.

Tie % 8.81% 1035
US Win % 24.65% 306
Euro Win % 66.54% -199
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