RYDER CUP LIVE ODDS: FRIDAY FOURSOMES

This goes on until I fall asleep. No promises how long that will be.

-Play suspended for the Day:

Westwood/Kaymer 1-up thru 12

Cink/Kuchar 2-up thru 11

Woods/Stricker all square with Poulter/Fisher thru 10

Watson/Overton 1-up thru 8(basically 1-up through 9)

USA ePTs-EURO ePTS 2.11 1.89
MATCH 1 Thru 12
Mickelson/DJ 21.50% 365
Kaymer/Westwood 58.50% -141
Tie 20.00% 400
MATCH 2 Thru 11
Cink/Kuchar 53.50% -115
Rory/G-Mac 27.70% 261
Tie 18.80% 432
MATCH 3 Thru 10
Woods/Stricker 42.80% 134
Poulter/Fisher 36.40% 175
Tie 20.80% 381
MATCH 4 Thru 9
Watson/Overton 55.00% -122
Donald/Harrington 28.50% 251
Tie 16.50% 506

1:45 PM:

-There will be more on this later, but Corey Pavin is close to topping Azinger as the worst captain ever.

-Phil and Kaymer trade birdies on 11. Same score there.

-Donald gets the Europeans on the board in the last, rolling in a birdie on 8. Bubba/Overton 1-up thru 8.

USA ePTs-EURO ePTS 1.96 2.04
MATCH 1 Thru 11
Mickelson/DJ 19.40% 415
Kaymer/Westwood 60.40% -153
Tie 20.20% 395
MATCH 2 Thru 10
Cink/Kuchar 35.10% 185
Rory/G-Mac 44.80% 123
Tie 20.10% 398
MATCH 3 Thru 8
Woods/Stricker 48.70% 105
Poulter/Fisher 34.30% 192
Tie 17.00% 488
MATCH 4 Thru 8
Watson/Overton 55.40% -124
Donald/Harrington 27.60% 262
Tie 17.00% 48

1:30 PM:

-US wins the 10th hole. I stepped out, but am assuming Phil made that putt.

-Bubba dodges a bullet when Harrington lips out on 7. Still 2-up.

-Stricker is alive! birdie on 8. Europeans miss. US moves to all square.

-Europe birdies 9, in the days second match. GMac and Rory now all square.

USA ePTs-EURO ePTS 2.06 1.94
MATCH 1 Thru 10
Mickelson/DJ 23.40% 327
Kaymer/Westwood 60.10% -151
Tie 16.50% 506
MATCH 2 Thru 9
Cink/Kuchar 33.30% 200
Rory/G-Mac 49.10% 104
Tie 17.60% 468
MATCH 3 Thru 8
Woods/Stricker 48.30% 107
Poulter/Fisher 32.80% 205
Tie 18.90% 429
MATCH 4 Thru 7
Watson/Overton 66.30% -197
Donald/Harrington 17.70% 465
Tie 16.00% 525

1:15 PM:

-Kaymer the machine makes a nice birdie putt on 9, then Dustin grounds his club in a bunker misses his. Phil, who has played awful, but avoided Azinger’s swing/life advice finally does something making a putt to stay 2-down.

-Stricker has still yet to show up so far, missing a chance to win at 7.

-Donald’s ball hangs on the edge. Thank god gravity likes freedom better. USA 2-up through 6 in that one.

USA ePTs-EURO ePTS 1.95 2.05
MATCH 1 Thru 9
Mickelson/DJ 13.10% 663
Kaymer/Westwood 75.30% -305
Tie 11.60% 762
MATCH 2 Thru 8
Cink/Kuchar 49.60% 102
Rory/G-Mac 30.60% 227
Tie 19.80% 405
MATCH 3 Thru 7
Woods/Stricker 33.10% 202
Poulter/Fisher 49.80% 101
Tie 17.10% 485
MATCH 4 Thru 6
Watson/Overton 69.40% -227
Donald/Harrington 19.40% 415
Tie 11.20% 793

1:00 PM:

-Kuchar/Cink halve the eighth after McIlroy taps in for par.

-Azinger has amazed all day with his ridiculous commentary, but high on his list is saying Fisher and Poulter both can’t be expected to miss from 20 feet. Except, that’s the most likely outcome.  And they do. Euro’s make pars on top of Tiger and 6, then Stricker makes par, too. No blood. US 1-down thru 6.

-Donald fails to get one back on the US powerhouse team of Watson and Overton. They halve 5.

USA ePTs-EURO ePTS 1.96 2.04
MATCH 1 Thru 8
Mickelson/DJ 13.60% 635
Kaymer/Westwood 75.20% -303
Tie 11.20% 793
MATCH 2 Thru 7
Cink/Kuchar 53.30% -114
Rory/G-Mac 31.10% 222
Tie 15.60% 541
MATCH 3 Thru 6
Woods/Stricker 34.50% 190
Poulter/Fisher 50.50% -102
Tie 15.00% 567
MATCH 4 Thru 5
Watson/Overton 67.40% -207
Donald/Harrington 19.20% 421
Tie 13.40% 646

12:45 PM:

-Phil and DJ donk around for a halve on 8.

-Stricker can’t convert a birdie opportunity. Hole is halved.

-Stewart Cink is having a career day on the greens.

USA ePTs-EURO ePTS 1.88 2.12
MATCH 1 Thru 8
Mickelson/DJ 13.00% 669
Kaymer/Westwood 74.30% -289
Tie 12.70% 687
MATCH 2 Thru 7
Cink/Kuchar 50.40% -102
Rory/G-Mac 33.60% 198
Tie 16.00% 525
MATCH 3 Thru 5
Woods/Stricker 28.30% 253
Poulter/Fisher 57.30% -134
Tie 14.40% 594
MATCH 4 Thru 4
Watson/Overton 67.40% -207
Donald/Harrington 18.60% 438
Tie 14.00% 614

12:30 PM:

Dustin birdies 7 to give the US some hope in that one. GMac made a 6-footer for par on No. 6 to halve that hole with Cink/Kuchar. Bubba misses the  birdie on the fourth hole, which no one else hit the green in regulation on.

US gained about .05 expected points since the resumption of play.

USA ePTs-EURO ePTS 1.72 2.28
MATCH 1 Thru 7
Mickelson/DJ 13.50% 641
Kaymer/Westwood 75.80% -313
Tie 10.70% 835
MATCH 2 Thru 6
Cink/Kuchar 34.60% 189
Rory/G-Mac 47.80% 109
Tie 17.60% 468
MATCH 3 Thru 4
Woods/Stricker 29.00% 245
Poulter/Fisher 56.00% -127
Tie 15.00% 567
MATCH 4 Thru 4
Watson/Overton 67.20% -205
Donald/Harrington 19.90% 403
Tie 12.90% 675

12:10 PM:

-Mickelson and DJ are in big trouble for the US after dropping 6

-Cink holed another bomb on 5

USA ePTs-EURO ePTS 1.67 2.33
MATCH 1 Thru 6
Mickelson/DJ 8.50% 1076
Kaymer/Westwood 83.10% -492
Tie 8.40% 1090
MATCH 2 Thru 5
Cink/Kuchar 34.60% 189
Rory/G-Mac 47.70% 110
Tie 17.70% 465
MATCH 3 Thru 3
Woods/Stricker 29.90% 234
Poulter/Fisher 55.60% -125
Tie 14.50% 590
MATCH 4 Thru 3
Watson/Overton 68.50% -217
Donald/Harrington 21.40% 367
Tie 10.10% 890

4:35 AM:

Poulter makes birdie against Tiger and (Stricker may or may not actually be playing today). Bubba and Overton are taking Harrington out behind the woodshed so far. Cink and Kuchar drop the fourth to fall behind again to Rory and G-Mac. Mickelson and DJ halve the fifth.

MATCH 1 Thru 5
Mickelson/DJ 17.40% 475
Kaymer/Westwood 70.70% -241
Tie 11.90% 740
MATCH 2 Thru 4
Cink/Kuchar 21.80% 359
Rory/G-Mac 64.90% -185
Tie 13.30% 652
MATCH 3 Thru 3
Woods/Stricker 32.20% 211
Poulter/Fisher 52.90% -112
Tie 14.90% 571
MATCH 4 Thru 2
Watson/Overton 63.90% -177
Donald/Harrington 21.50% 365
Tie 14.60% 585

4:15 AM:

Nice win for the Americans in match 3 on the second hole.  Then Phil misses one to fall 2-down. Cink makes a bomb on 3 to pull back to all square.

MATCH 1 Thru 4
Mickelson/DJ 19.40% 415
Kaymer/Westwood 70.40% -238
Tie 10.20% 880
MATCH 2 Thru 3
Cink/Kuchar 33.50% 199
Rory/G-Mac 52.70% -111
Tie 13.80% 625
MATCH 3 Thru 2
Woods/Stricker 46.20% 116
Poulter/Fisher 41.40% 142
Tie 12.40% 706
MATCH 4 Thru 1
Watson/Overton 50.60% -102
Donald/Harrington 35.00% 186
Tie 14.40% 594

4:00 AM:

We needs some plus EV in here. Can’t wait until Overton-Watson is only US group to win and they play again in the afternoon and Pavin is called a genius.

MATCH 1 Thru 2
Mickelson/DJ 29.00% 245
Kaymer/Westwood 57.10% -133
Tie 13.90% 619
MATCH 2 Thru 1
Cink/Kuchar 21.60% 363
Rory/G-Mac 65.90% -193
Tie 12.50% 700
MATCH 3 Thru 1
Woods/Stricker 32.80% 205
Poulter/Fisher 55.40% -124
Tie 11.80% 747
MATCH 4 Thru 1
Watson/Overton 49.70% 101
Donald/Harrington 35.90% 179
Tie 14.40% 594

3:45 AM:

These conditions are absurd, but I’m up so keep playing. It’s the same course for everyone.

MATCH 1 Thru 2
Mickelson/DJ 31.20% 221
Kaymer/Westwood 56.20% -128
Tie 12.60% 694
MATCH 2 Thru 1
Cink/Kuchar 23.70% 322
Rory/G-Mac 64.50% -182
Tie 11.80% 747
MATCH 3 Thru 1
Woods/Stricker 29.90% 234
Poulter/Fisher 56.10% -128
Tie 14.00% 614

3:20 AM:

It is pissing rain in Wales. I’m glad there playing, but only because I’m inside watching.Europe draws first blood:

MATCH 1 Thru 1
Mickelson/DJ 44.40% 125
Kaymer/Westwood 42.80% 134
Tie 12.80% 681
MATCH 2 Thru 1
Cink/Kuchar 22.00% 355
Rory/G-Mac 67.40% -207
Tie 10.60% 84

2:50 AM:

Thru 1 hole of the first match. 1,000 sims from here on out. Thanks again to XLSSports for most of the work on these simulations.

Still a toss up.

MATCH 1 Thru 1
Mickelson/DJ 45.30% 121
Kaymer/Westwood 40.40% 148
Tie 14.30% 599

12:30 AM:
-Euros gets a 1% advantage for being home.
-Westwood gets a .25 stroke penalty for being hurt.

10,000 sims on Ryder Cup:

Tie % 7.89% 1167
US Win % 39.54% 153
Euro Win % 52.57% -111

Note, this went down a little bit from the opening projections where I just averaged the US Team. Not only did Corey Pavin not improve upon the average by taking his best 8, he actually made the team worse. Obviously, the relative strong European eight is not helping.

25,000 individual match sims:

MATCH 1
Mickelson/DJ 43.56% 130
Kaymer/Westwood 43.04% 132
Tie 13.40% 646
MATCH 2
Cink/Kuchar 33.79% 196
Rory/G-Mac 52.49% -110
Tie 13.72% 629
MATCH 3
Woods/Stricker 46.64% 114
Poulter/Fisher 39.70% 152
Tie 13.67% 632
MATCH 4
Watson/Overton 36.96% 171
Donald/Harrington 49.61% 102
Tie 13.43% 644

After I made the few adjustments it comes out looking better. Still like Phil and Dustin and Poulter and Fisher marginally, but they aren’t quite as good as I originally thought. Let’s hope Bubba and Overton make some birdies today.

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3 Comments

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3 responses to “RYDER CUP LIVE ODDS: FRIDAY FOURSOMES

  1. Kunk

    I have a hunch Corey Pavin disagrees with your current assessment of Match 2. Stew Cink is clearly going to keep pouring in 30 foot birdies.

  2. Jason

    Cink/Kuchar 53.50%
    – is that right? It seems low being 2-up with only 7 to play.

  3. I think you’re right, I may have had a typo on the scores.

    Upon further review, didn’t include 11th hole. Should be around 70% for US to win.

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