NFL WEEK 1

My pool is a standard ESPN pick’em using whatever ESPN decides on the spread. Payouts go to the top weekly winner, and then 67% of remaining to overall winner and 33% to runner up. I’m pretty sure I won more last year by winning 3 weeks then the overall winner did. Oh, and most of my pool is pretty dumb. Only 10 people out of 50ish had the Vikings even with a generous extra 1.5 from ESPN.

RECORD: 1-0.(Yes, I’m counting the Vikes)

Here’s the 2010 DVOA projections because a lot of my anaylsis blatantly rips them off.

Miami -3.5 at Buffalo
Pinny Line: -3 -108/+100
Only 16% of players on ESPN are taking Buffalo. Seems like a pretty obvious choice. DVOA has the Bills as pretty bad again this season, but with the third best defense in the league. I’m sure they won’t stop Miami at all, but that’s interesting.
Pick: Buffalo


Detroit +6.5 at Chicago

Pinny: +7 -112/+104
Only 45% of ESPN users are taking Chicago which is strikingly low for that contest. Pinny’s line is about the same and DVOA has a pretty huge difference between the Bears(playoff team) and Lions(worst in the league). I like the relative unpopularity of the Bears, so I’ll hope DVOA is right.
Pick: Bears

Oakland +6.5 at Tennessee
Pinny: +6 +103/-111
Not surprisingly the Raiders are very unpopular with slightly over a qaurter of ESPN participants selected them this week. DVOA is not optimistic about the Raiders this season, but they are also a lot lower on Tennessee then I imagine most people think.
Pick: Oakland

Cincinnati +5.5 at New England
Pinny: +4.5 +100/-108
I hate these games. Basically a standard split between favorite and underdog with an extra point to the underdog. Gut feeling, I’d say New England will be strong as always and Cincinnati will regress from last season so this line might be a little low. In week one, I’ll side with the sportsbooks, though.
Pick: Cincinnati

Carolina +7.5 at NYG
Pinny: +6.5 -106/-102
Takes two seconds of though here crossing the key number of 7.
Pick: Carolina

Atlanta -2.5 at Pittsburgh
Pinny: -1.5 -111/+103
This is kind of Bizarre to see Atlanta favored on the road here even with Roethlisberger in jail or whatever. DVOA likes both teams a lot, with Pittsburgh as #2 in its projections. I’d say without Roethlisberger you have to knock them down a bit, but I don’t see how Atlanta is around 5 points better.
Pick: Pittsburgh

Cleveland +2.5 at Tampa Bay
Pinny: +3 -113/+104
No obvious angle here, so I’ll go with DVOA who thinks the Bucs will be slightly more competent this season.
Pick: Tampa Bay

Denver +2.5 at Jacksonville
Pinny: +2 +112/-122
This is a tough one. Evenly split on ESPN. Pinny shows no edge and DVOA should be around -2.5 as well.
Pick: Jacksonville

Indianapolis -3.5 at Houston
Pinny: -1 -117/+108
I wish I could say I have good memories of Houston-Indy matchups past, but I don’t. Thanks Sage. Texans are unpopular and getting an extra few points on ESPN. Pretty easy, but sickening.
Pick: Houston

San Francisco -2.5 at Seattle
Pinny: -3 +108/-117
This is crazy unpopular on ESPN, which makes it a pretty easy pick for Seattle, but wow, DVOA is not high on the 49ers. I’m thinking DVOA would have this like like Seattle -4.5, which is a huge difference from Vegas. In 2009, this would bode poorly for me, though it would look better in other years.
Pick: Seattle

Green Bay Packers -1.5 at Philadelphia
Pinny: +3 -114/+105
Woah. The Packers are really this much better than the Eagles? I guess losing McNabb kind of hurts, but I really wasn’t expecting too much of a drop off if any with the addition of Kolb. Same thing with Westbrook. He played infrequently last season and LeSean McCoy was a good, probably better, back-up. DVOA has these teams basically even, which is what I would say on a gut feeling. Ignoring the free points from ESPN and going with the Eagles. Oh yeah, and why are the Eagles so unpopular?
Pick: Philadelphia

Arizona -3.5 at St. Louis
Pinny: -4 +104/-112
Rams football is back baby! Once again, they should be pretty terrible, but, as always, unpopular on ESPN. Line seems fair, so its worth it to be probably the only one in my pool with the Rams.
Pick: St. Louis

Dallas +3.5 at Washington
Pinny: +3.5 +103/-111
One of my biggest surprises when looking at DVOA was how good it thinks the Redskins will be. I knew they were higher than anyone else on Campbell and figured McNabb would not make the team a lot better. They were good on defense even with Campbell, and probably had a ton of bad luck last season. Dallas is always overrated and much more popular on ESPN.
Pick: Washington

Baltimore +3.5 at NYJ
Pinny: -1.5 -122/+115
This works out well, because I did not want to take the Jets. True, the Jets are unpopular, but I suspect there might be a strong Jets bias in my pool based on a decent amount of Jets fans. Also, DVOA says the Ravens will be good and I’m getting a few extra in ESPN.
Pick: Baltimore

San Diego -5.5 at Kansas City
Pinny: -4.5 -104/-104
The Trifecta here. Getting more points, taking the way less popular team and DVOA is projecting KC to make the playoffs(average team overall, guessing its scheduling related) and be BETTER than San Diego.
Pick: Kansas City

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