FED EX CUP ODDS PRE BMW CHAMPIONSHIP

I really haven’t looked at the actual Fed Ex points because they are pretty worthless, but it’s pretty funny how meaningless this points structure makes them. A 2,000 point gap is nothing provided you get lucky and win.

Kuchar and Stricker are in the best shape as really good players who have a big advantage. There is not a huge difference in their odds, though Kuchar has a lot more points, because they are both pretty likely to be top-5 heading to the Tour Championship(Top-5 are gauranteed FEC win with TC win), where Stricker would actually be more likely to win. Still, they have both proven to be very strong players and should be considered the favorite.

Charley Hoffman got a huge bonus from the win, which should be good enough to get to East Lake , but at this point he is above his head in terms of the class of players left, and would really need to get lucky again to win. That’s why he is only 5-percent to win.

Tiger, on the other hand, is in the opposite spectrum. He is about 7% to win despite being really far back because of his high likely hood of winning a tournament. If Tiger could string together four really good rounds, which he is more likely than anyone esle to do, he will become a huge favorite. However, he still needs to make up a decent amount of ground and is only 40% to advance to East Lake. By my count, Tiger has to finish at least solo fifth or better on average to advance.

After Tiger, Furyk, Mickelson and Donald are the next in line. Interestingly, Luke Donald who has played pretty well in the playoffs has only raised his chance to win from around 1% to 4.24%. That gives you some idea of the bias against consistent players without a win during the regular season or playoffs.

Here are the ODDS:

PLAYER Adv to TC Average Points Win Top 3 % avg rank
Matt Kuchar 100.00% 2,972.44 25.81% 92.96% 2.1
Steve Stricker 100.00% 2,657.69 21.06% 41.17% 3.7
Tiger Woods 40.07% 828.12 6.92% 14.86% 29.3
Charley Hoffman 100.00% 2,385.48 5.62% 21.14% 4.3
Jim Furyk 100.00% 1,333.97 5.32% 11.74% 11.8
Phil Mickelson 100.00% 1,267.27 4.80% 11.32% 12.6
Luke Donald 100.00% 1,852.13 4.24% 9.12% 7.0
Jason Day 100.00% 1,857.73 3.10% 7.38% 6.8
Ernie Els 100.00% 1,253.58 2.64% 5.80% 11.4
Dustin Johnson 100.00% 1,003.29 2.30% 5.80% 15.5
Geoff Ogilvy 100.00% 1,048.88 2.20% 5.20% 14.1
Hunter Mahan 100.00% 1,066.45 1.94% 4.82% 13.7
Zach Johnson 100.00% 926.82 1.54% 5.64% 17.6
Paul Casey 95.84% 889.13 1.34% 5.78% 18.8
Justin Rose 100.00% 880.12 1.02% 3.12% 16.7
Bubba Watson 100.00% 893.42 1.02% 3.00% 16.3
Retief Goosen 96.68% 854.80 1.02% 5.42% 19.4
Adam Scott 100.00% 802.94 0.68% 2.42% 18.2
Robert Allenby 65.51% 543.25 0.66% 3.34% 25.0
Rory McIlroy 54.37% 488.10 0.66% 3.30% 26.3
Ryan Palmer 100.00% 746.31 0.56% 1.52% 19.3
Ben Crane 99.94% 729.25 0.50% 1.98% 20.7
Tim Clark 94.94% 741.09 0.50% 3.38% 21.1
Martin Laird 100.00% 1,094.79 0.48% 0.84% 11.8
J.B. Holmes 71.77% 532.87 0.48% 2.36% 25.2
Jeff Overton 99.76% 716.16 0.46% 2.14% 21.4
Nick Watney 45.47% 419.52 0.42% 3.06% 27.9
Bo Van Pelt 88.96% 639.38 0.36% 2.32% 23.0
Anthony Kim 20.00% 206.82 0.36% 1.80% 35.2
Rickie Fowler 63.71% 454.18 0.34% 1.74% 26.6
Ian Poulter 11.82% 135.12 0.28% 1.24% 42.0
Camilo Villegas 33.35% 292.95 0.26% 1.96% 30.7
Brandt Snedeker 30.65% 237.67 0.20% 1.42% 31.8
Brian Gay 4.78% 58.68 0.18% 0.46% 54.1
Kevin Na 12.26% 134.67 0.16% 1.18% 40.2
Bryce Molder 4.64% 58.66 0.14% 0.40% 57.2
Charlie Wi 8.16% 70.94 0.12% 0.32% 41.3
Michael Sim 6.60% 73.69 0.12% 0.52% 49.3
Bill Haas 48.23% 321.55 0.10% 0.82% 29.0
Angel Cabrera 6.54% 70.09 0.10% 0.52% 46.8
K.J. Choi 5.54% 58.69 0.10% 0.46% 49.0
Y.E. Yang 3.24% 36.37 0.08% 0.26% 59.3
Kevin Streelman 55.93% 342.20 0.06% 0.52% 28.4
Sean O’Hair 9.52% 113.33 0.06% 1.00% 44.5
Ryan Moore 5.68% 65.91 0.06% 0.48% 56.5
Jason Bohn 3.84% 36.53 0.06% 0.34% 48.7
Fredrik Jacobson 3.64% 37.25 0.06% 0.20% 52.5
Justin Leonard 3.34% 39.52 0.06% 0.26% 57.3
Vaughn Taylor 18.50% 119.78 0.04% 0.42% 34.5
Stewart Cink 10.72% 84.66 0.04% 0.32% 38.0
D.J. Trahan 9.40% 78.98 0.04% 0.44% 39.7
John Senden 8.74% 73.75 0.04% 0.34% 40.7
Rory Sabbatini 7.80% 76.79 0.04% 0.48% 45.2
Tom Gillis 5.08% 48.81 0.04% 0.32% 47.8
Ricky Barnes 2.22% 23.39 0.04% 0.16% 53.5
Tim Petrovic 2.10% 23.47 0.04% 0.12% 61.4
Stephen Ames 4.50% 51.66 0.02% 0.12% 61.6
David Toms 4.24% 49.02 0.02% 0.16% 58.5
Brian Davis 2.66% 23.05 0.02% 0.04% 50.3
Matt Jones 2.66% 30.43 0.02% 0.10% 61.2
Marc Leishman 2.48% 23.83 0.02% 0.08% 58.1
Heath Slocum 4.82% 38.95 0.00% 0.16% 44.8
Brendon de Jonge 3.78% 30.29 0.00% 0.10% 44.8
Scott Verplank 3.26% 36.45 0.00% 0.12% 62.6
Carl Pettersson 3.24% 22.50 0.00% 0.04% 45.3
Jason Dufner 2.78% 31.05 0.00% 0.18% 60.2
Vijay Singh 2.58% 26.41 0.00% 0.04% 59.3
Andres Romero 1.98% 20.57 0.00% 0.04% 65.6
Stuart Appleby 1.50% 10.97 0.00% 0.02% 48.5
Greg Chalmers 0.88% 9.19 0.00% 0.06% 61.4
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