UPDATED FED EX CUP PROJECTIONS WITH COMMENTARY

Can’t believe Jim Furyk was disqualified from the first event. What a joke that is.

PLAYER Adv to DB Adv to BMW Adv to TC Average Points
Steve Stricker 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 2,180.55
Phil Mickelson 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 1,705.33
Tiger Woods 89.12% 83.48% 66.37% 1,677.78
Ernie Els 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 1,592.25
Jim Furyk 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 1,574.32
Hunter Mahan 100.00% 100.00% 99.88% 1,292.06
Matt Kuchar 100.00% 100.00% 99.44% 1,205.90
Dustin Johnson 100.00% 100.00% 94.64% 1,076.06
Tim Clark 100.00% 100.00% 97.88% 1,036.42
Bubba Watson 100.00% 100.00% 99.18% 1,019.36
Justin Rose 100.00% 100.00% 99.88% 990.31
Jeff Overton 100.00% 100.00% 99.42% 947.51
Zach Johnson 100.00% 100.00% 85.70% 923.36
Camilo Villegas 100.00% 100.00% 86.30% 915.42
Anthony Kim 100.00% 100.00% 81.88% 910.06
Robert Allenby 100.00% 100.00% 82.70% 871.32
Paul Casey 100.00% 100.00% 66.89% 861.58
Rory McIlroy 100.00% 100.00% 77.04% 848.42
Retief Goosen 100.00% 100.00% 70.41% 798.18
Ben Crane 100.00% 100.00% 88.36% 761.14
Bo Van Pelt 100.00% 100.00% 82.80% 746.58
Luke Donald 100.00% 100.00% 74.31% 742.22
Nick Watney 100.00% 100.00% 58.19% 659.06
J.B. Holmes 100.00% 100.00% 58.39% 541.33
Rickie Fowler 100.00% 100.00% 54.15% 503.08
Sean O’Hair 100.00% 99.96% 40.95% 439.81
Geoff Ogilvy 100.00% 98.18% 32.03% 361.36
Jason Day 100.00% 100.00% 39.33% 354.40
Padraig Harrington 100.00% 85.90% 27.35% 335.43
Kevin Na 100.00% 96.02% 27.63% 324.29
Bill Haas 100.00% 100.00% 37.53% 308.52
Lucas Glover 100.00% 87.44% 25.39% 296.41
K.J. Choi 100.00% 100.00% 31.35% 290.99
Ryan Moore 100.00% 100.00% 27.09% 287.43
Ian Poulter 100.00% 81.80% 21.86% 277.68
David Toms 100.00% 91.24% 22.48% 222.42
Kenny Perry 100.00% 58.43% 16.32% 208.93
Carl Pettersson 100.00% 100.00% 30.95% 202.35
Adam Scott 100.00% 100.00% 21.36% 198.39
Ryan Palmer 100.00% 100.00% 22.50% 178.26
Brendon de Jonge 100.00% 100.00% 24.02% 171.88
Scott Verplank 100.00% 93.26% 17.98% 170.90
Steve Marino 100.00% 71.35% 15.14% 169.87
Jason Bohn 100.00% 100.00% 18.30% 160.12
Bryce Molder 100.00% 84.48% 15.52% 156.83
Brandt Snedeker 100.00% 96.34% 15.94% 154.61
Brian Gay 100.00% 74.91% 12.76% 146.56
Fredrik Jacobson 100.00% 98.72% 15.16% 133.29
Ricky Barnes 100.00% 100.00% 16.60% 132.66
Charley Hoffman 99.76% 45.09% 10.02% 113.73
Michael Sim 100.00% 51.25% 10.06% 113.25
Stephen Ames 99.88% 50.17% 9.82% 112.64
Vijay Singh 100.00% 59.37% 10.42% 112.29
Y.E. Yang 100.00% 65.53% 9.82% 105.67
Justin Leonard 100.00% 52.87% 9.16% 102.87
Angel Cabrera 95.28% 45.79% 8.90% 99.56
Rory Sabbatini 100.00% 52.95% 8.46% 97.35
Charles Howell III 100.00% 85.32% 11.32% 96.58
Paul Goydos 100.00% 39.45% 7.38% 92.50
Charlie Wi 100.00% 69.91% 8.30% 83.74
Stewart Cink 100.00% 73.07% 8.40% 83.07
Jason Dufner 100.00% 54.91% 7.46% 74.22
Pat Perez 98.70% 41.53% 6.78% 71.31
Chad Campbell 99.94% 40.93% 6.64% 71.06
Vaughn Taylor 100.00% 97.14% 7.82% 68.10
Heath Slocum 100.00% 72.67% 7.10% 67.71
D.J. Trahan 100.00% 44.23% 5.72% 65.30
Davis Love III 56.67% 28.29% 5.66% 65.23
Marc Leishman 100.00% 72.01% 6.98% 62.05
Matt Jones 100.00% 49.09% 5.76% 60.88
Kevin Sutherland 72.09% 35.05% 5.60% 59.75
Tom Gillis 99.96% 40.47% 5.06% 56.74
D.A. Points 99.56% 31.09% 4.96% 55.88
Stuart Appleby 100.00% 100.00% 7.84% 52.34
Ben Curtis 46.09% 20.64% 4.62% 50.87
Blake Adams 81.52% 24.94% 4.12% 45.62
John Rollins 100.00% 46.89% 4.62% 44.72
Tim Petrovic 98.02% 29.75% 4.18% 44.37
Boo Weekley 95.36% 29.67% 4.06% 42.73
J.J. Henry 100.00% 46.13% 4.50% 41.87
Steve Elkington 100.00% 37.41% 4.04% 40.65
Brian Davis 100.00% 79.16% 4.42% 38.34
Chad Collins 76.50% 23.42% 3.62% 37.19
John Senden 53.69% 23.60% 3.36% 36.80
Shaun Micheel 100.00% 37.41% 3.28% 33.45
Jerry Kelly 57.55% 21.04% 2.82% 30.48
Chris Couch 41.59% 15.08% 2.56% 29.67
Kevin Streelman 42.51% 16.46% 2.80% 29.19
Bob Estes 42.15% 15.20% 2.38% 27.42
Alex Cejka 42.75% 13.46% 2.00% 25.24
Garrett Willis 85.22% 18.90% 2.38% 25.04
Spencer Levin 100.00% 52.15% 2.80% 24.28
Kevin Stadler 26.01% 8.66% 2.12% 23.59
Jimmy Walker 100.00% 20.02% 2.16% 22.66
Jonathan Byrd 41.45% 14.78% 2.10% 22.41
Jeff Maggert 29.95% 8.70% 1.66% 20.71
Derek Lamely 39.75% 11.88% 1.96% 19.59
Aaron Baddeley 43.77% 15.28% 1.98% 19.56
Chris Riley 78.00% 19.72% 1.76% 18.64
Josh Teater 59.01% 14.72% 1.62% 18.57
Greg Chalmers 100.00% 31.81% 2.12% 18.37
Woody Austin 36.15% 12.66% 1.80% 17.62
Kris Blanks 100.00% 19.18% 1.80% 17.46
Troy Matteson 36.37% 10.62% 1.62% 17.23
Andres Romero 26.01% 7.16% 1.40% 16.99
Nathan Green 24.90% 7.54% 1.34% 15.92
Alex Prugh 94.14% 17.46% 1.48% 15.29
Robert Garrigus 23.10% 6.54% 1.16% 15.25
Webb Simpson 45.15% 14.82% 1.58% 15.21
Matt Bettencourt 33.27% 9.22% 1.42% 15.08
Michael Letzig 30.71% 8.46% 1.30% 14.17
John Merrick 35.23% 10.72% 1.32% 14.09
Ryuji Imada 36.01% 10.86% 1.48% 13.21
Briny Baird 42.87% 14.76% 1.48% 12.82
Martin Laird 39.27% 10.74% 1.20% 11.64
Dean Wilson 31.99% 8.52% 1.16% 11.29
J.P. Hayes 30.25% 7.66% 0.84% 10.28
Joe Ogilvie 33.57% 8.48% 0.94% 9.35
Cameron Beckman 28.55% 7.22% 0.94% 8.54
Bill Lunde 29.59% 6.66% 0.86% 7.78
Graham Delaet 20.02% 4.08% 0.46% 4.05
David Duval 12.98% 1.62% 0.28% 2.78

ODDS AND AVERAGE RANK

Average Rank TO WIN SECOND THIRD avg rank
Tiger Woods 18.76% 9.02% 6.34% 28.2
Steve Stricker 16.44% 11.48% 8.72% 6.4
Phil Mickelson 7.86% 7.26% 5.98% 9.3
Jim Furyk 7.62% 6.00% 4.22% 10.2
Ernie Els 4.46% 4.26% 4.16% 9.3
Hunter Mahan 3.72% 3.76% 3.36% 12.6
Matt Kuchar 2.78% 3.18% 2.86% 13.6
Dustin Johnson 2.50% 3.78% 3.12% 16.2
Paul Casey 2.50% 3.02% 3.82% 22.9
Camilo Villegas 2.20% 2.46% 2.24% 19.0
Tim Clark 2.08% 2.42% 1.92% 15.9
Rory McIlroy 2.02% 2.54% 2.50% 20.9
Robert Allenby 1.92% 2.40% 2.10% 19.9
Anthony Kim 1.88% 3.04% 3.04% 19.7
Nick Watney 1.86% 2.00% 2.20% 26.3
Zach Johnson 1.84% 2.52% 2.84% 18.9
Retief Goosen 1.78% 2.88% 2.54% 22.7
Bubba Watson 1.72% 2.22% 2.34% 16.0
Justin Rose 1.48% 1.92% 1.58% 16.1
Luke Donald 1.36% 1.74% 1.40% 22.5
Jeff Overton 1.32% 1.90% 1.58% 16.9
Bo Van Pelt 1.04% 1.54% 1.64% 21.4
Rickie Fowler 0.76% 1.26% 1.56% 28.2
J.B. Holmes 0.72% 1.40% 1.56% 27.2
Ian Poulter 0.70% 0.64% 1.26% 47.1
Ben Crane 0.68% 1.46% 1.28% 20.6
Padraig Harrington 0.64% 0.82% 1.32% 43.3
Sean O’Hair 0.62% 1.20% 1.28% 33.1
Kevin Na 0.60% 0.64% 1.20% 40.5
Geoff Ogilvy 0.56% 0.86% 1.32% 37.7
Lucas Glover 0.56% 0.80% 0.94% 43.5
Kenny Perry 0.54% 0.36% 0.58% 59.8
Steve Marino 0.36% 0.34% 0.40% 55.0
Jason Day 0.34% 0.60% 1.10% 33.6
Adam Scott 0.34% 0.26% 0.52% 41.4
Ryan Moore 0.32% 0.78% 1.16% 39.8
David Toms 0.32% 0.28% 0.66% 43.4
K.J. Choi 0.26% 0.54% 0.84% 36.5
Bill Haas 0.18% 0.64% 0.56% 33.8
Brandt Snedeker 0.18% 0.22% 0.52% 46.6
Scott Verplank 0.18% 0.20% 0.56% 45.3
Bryce Molder 0.18% 0.22% 0.36% 49.6
Y.E. Yang 0.18% 0.16% 0.32% 59.4
Stephen Ames 0.18% 0.22% 0.24% 65.7
Fredrik Jacobson 0.16% 0.12% 0.34% 45.6
Justin Leonard 0.16% 0.10% 0.30% 64.7
Charley Hoffman 0.16% 0.22% 0.26% 68.1
Angel Cabrera 0.16% 0.12% 0.32% 68.1
Brian Gay 0.14% 0.08% 0.36% 54.3
Charlie Wi 0.14% 0.10% 0.22% 58.5
Paul Goydos 0.14% 0.10% 0.36% 71.7
Vijay Singh 0.14% 0.16% 0.36% 61.7
Rory Sabbatini 0.12% 0.10% 0.26% 65.3
Jason Bohn 0.10% 0.22% 0.52% 42.6
Matt Jones 0.10% 0.04% 0.10% 67.3
Ryan Palmer 0.08% 0.32% 0.44% 39.2
Jason Dufner 0.08% 0.08% 0.18% 64.8
Carl Pettersson 0.06% 0.16% 0.18% 34.9
Brendon de Jonge 0.06% 0.14% 0.24% 38.2
Chad Campbell 0.06% 0.06% 0.16% 71.2
Tim Petrovic 0.06% 0.04% 0.04% 77.2
Davis Love III 0.06% 0.02% 0.16% 83.2
Ricky Barnes 0.04% 0.12% 0.26% 43.3
Charles Howell III 0.04% 0.12% 0.24% 50.9
Heath Slocum 0.04% 0.04% 0.20% 57.9
Shaun Micheel 0.04% 0.02% 0.12% 73.9
Michael Sim 0.04% 0.16% 0.40% 65.3
Tom Gillis 0.04% 0.00% 0.18% 71.6
Pat Perez 0.04% 0.06% 0.10% 70.6
Boo Weekley 0.04% 0.06% 0.06% 77.7
Kevin Sutherland 0.04% 0.06% 0.12% 76.9
Aaron Baddeley 0.04% 0.00% 0.04% 91.8
Chris Couch 0.04% 0.06% 0.06% 92.9
Ben Curtis 0.04% 0.02% 0.12% 93.4
Woody Austin 0.04% 0.00% 0.02% 101.7
Marc Leishman 0.02% 0.06% 0.14% 58.1
Stewart Cink 0.02% 0.16% 0.22% 56.7
John Rollins 0.02% 0.06% 0.14% 68.8
J.J. Henry 0.02% 0.10% 0.06% 69.7
D.J. Trahan 0.02% 0.16% 0.22% 70.2
Steve Elkington 0.02% 0.04% 0.14% 73.3
Greg Chalmers 0.02% 0.00% 0.02% 76.3
D.A. Points 0.02% 0.10% 0.20% 76.5
Jerry Kelly 0.02% 0.00% 0.10% 86.2
Alex Cejka 0.02% 0.02% 0.08% 91.9
Matt Bettencourt 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 97.4
Jeff Maggert 0.02% 0.04% 0.06% 99.3
Joe Ogilvie 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 99.8
J.P. Hayes 0.02% 0.00% 0.02% 102.6
Bob Estes 0.02% 0.04% 0.12% 96.2
Michael Letzig 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 104.4
Nathan Green 0.02% 0.00% 0.08% 107.1
Kevin Stadler 0.02% 0.00% 0.06% 106.9
Stuart Appleby 0.00% 0.06% 0.10% 47.6
Vaughn Taylor 0.00% 0.00% 0.18% 52.6
Brian Davis 0.00% 0.02% 0.06% 58.0
Spencer Levin 0.00% 0.00% 0.06% 67.7
Jimmy Walker 0.00% 0.04% 0.02% 82.6
Kris Blanks 0.00% 0.02% 0.00% 83.0
Alex Prugh 0.00% 0.00% 0.04% 84.8
Garrett Willis 0.00% 0.00% 0.06% 84.2
Blake Adams 0.00% 0.02% 0.12% 81.2
Chad Collins 0.00% 0.04% 0.08% 82.7
Chris Riley 0.00% 0.04% 0.04% 84.6
Josh Teater 0.00% 0.00% 0.10% 89.2
Derek Lamely 0.00% 0.04% 0.00% 93.3
Webb Simpson 0.00% 0.00% 0.04% 91.8
Martin Laird 0.00% 0.02% 0.02% 95.1
John Senden 0.00% 0.02% 0.14% 87.3
Kevin Streelman 0.00% 0.02% 0.06% 93.4
Briny Baird 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 94.9
John Merrick 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 99.0
Bill Lunde 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 102.0
Ryuji Imada 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 99.0
Dean Wilson 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 101.9
Cameron Beckman 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 104.2
Troy Matteson 0.00% 0.00% 0.06% 100.6
Andres Romero 0.00% 0.04% 0.04% 105.7
Jonathan Byrd 0.00% 0.02% 0.04% 97.9
David Duval 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 114.1
Graham Delaet 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 111.5
Robert Garrigus 0.00% 0.00% 0.06% 110.1

COMMENTARY
Winning a Tournament: Winning either the BMW, Deutsche Bank or Barclays has to be one of the best deals on the PGA Tour. You basically guarantee a spot in the final five (One win is worth more than any player has in Fed Ex points so far) with a chance to win at East Lake. I’m not sure how I feel about this (Clearly biased view of the best player, but I don’t think the goal of the Fed Ex was ever to identify the best player) but winning is truly huge. If someone (Heath Slocum) can win a tournament, that is going to lead to a big payday.

FED EX CONTENDERS
Tiger Woods: It’s kind of surprising to see Tiger as favored to win this event based on the last two years given how far back he is. That’s an indication of how important winning a tournament, which Tiger under this ranking, is relatively likely to do.

As far as the ranking goes it’s definitely fair if Tiger has been working 100% on his game and cares about being at the Barclays. However, I have no idea if that is the case so I tend to say it’s closer to the 12-1 that is being offered at the sports books.

Steve Stricker: It’s possible to have some reservations about Stricker in majors, but he’s proved he can win big events and in set-ups like the ones that he should face in the playoffs, there is no one other than Tiger who has been better over the past few years. If Tiger is anywhere below the estimation I used for my rankings, Stricker is the absolute favorite to win this.

Jim Furyk: I was going to throw Furyk in as the standard option, but then he went and got DQed from this week’s event. Doesn’t hurt him too much overall as he still advanced in all 5001 simulations to the Tour Championship. On Average, he lost around 300 points at the Tour Championship and is between 2 and 3% less likely to win.

FED EX PRETENDERS
Rory McIlroy: Don’t get me wrong Rory is a definite borderline top-ten player with not much difference between the top handful and Rory. But, I just don’t see why everyone is going nuts over Rory. Sure, he looks great, but his performance based on what we’ve seen so far projects a lot closer to Phil Mickelson than Tiger Woods. In comparison to Tiger at this age, Rory is nowhere close in relation to the field, though I guess it could be argued the field is deeper nowadays. Anyway, Rory is good, but he’s never been better than Martin Kaymer in his career (Kaymer is older) and Martin isn’t getting the amount of respect Rory does despite a major win.

Phil Mickelson
: I’d love to sit here and tell you that Phil should be rated higher based on his “family isssues” in 2009, but that would ignore the fact that his 2010 is basically right on the rating. Phil is one of the best golfers of this era for sure, but he also has to be considered the most fortunate. I have seen no difference between Furyk, Mickelson, Stricker and Westwood over the past couple years other than possibly at majors (who knows how much meaning that has) so I think Phil’s chances of winning this week or the Fed Ex Cup are completely overrated.

Jeff Overton: Umm, No. Jeff proves that a bunch of top tens outweigh a bunch of mediocre to bad performances. Overall, Jeff is pretty good, but no way in hell is he one of the best 10 players in this event.

I think this is going to be really fun to follow odds-wise from round to round because of how big an impact winning a tournament will have. So, check back after each round for updated Odds to win each week, and the Fed Ex cup.

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